Ribannah
Fighter Druid
No France or Germany whilst including Ghana and Kongo wouldn't be the obvious choice, I have to say. I believe it's most likely that your Europe list plus the two nations I have just mentioned will be in the vanilla; roughly 40% of the civs in the game therefore. But I suppose that cannot be certain; it is possible that the final choices will seems very underwhelming. In Asia, the Ottomans also seems likely; look at this tweet from Civ VI's Twitter- it must be hinting at Ottomans being in the game as it would otherwise seem a strange thing to celebrate considering current tensions in Turkey-Europe relations over disagreements about the migrant crisis: https://mobile.twitter.com/CivGame/status/736968372559040512
I think that Arabia may not be in Vannila, and Iroquois seems unlikely; they will likely choose another North American native civ for variety. I wouldn't bother guessing because there are so many. Brazil shouldn't be in the base game in my opinion.
I'm counting on the Iroquois because Firaxis put a lot of work into getting them right for Civ5, after the mess they made of them in Civ3. Also, they are by far the most significant in the region, with at the height of their power an empire the size of Persia.
With Spain in the vanilla game, the first expansion wouldn't be a new world theme but, I think/hope, center on Europe. Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria-Hungary, Poland and perhaps even Italy could make an appearance. The Ottomans would fit in there, too.