Very close
Here's my experience.
When the game started, I asked everyone in my tribe to tell me what weapons they were planning to pick. I did this for two reasons, it might offer a fairly balanced weapon choices (at least one of each weapon). Also, it would allow people to notice me, hopefully allowing alliances to be easier to form. 6 people told me of their weapon choices, although, ironically, only 5 submitted their choices, Useless told me about his weapon, but didn't send it. CivGeneral simply didn't notice about the weapon submission until too late (he said something about not knowing the weapons needed, and sending something else). The first part of the plan worked, because, even though we were outnumbered, we won the round. But I wasn't so sure about the second part. I was worried that it might backfire, as I would be noticed, but not as an ally, but as a target. So I stopped bugging people for their weapon plans.
One thing did happen that was positive. Emp.Napoleon, in addition to telling me their weapon, offered me an alliance. I was unsure whether I wanted an alliance, because I didn't want to have to stick with someone at this point. But I told him that, as long as he keeps sending in weapons choices, I wouldn't vote for him.
Anyway, my Tribe kept winning for awhile, and it seemed almost too easy (that all the other tribe would disapear). At one point, there was a tie, but we still won (I was actually hoping they would win that round). In spite of loosing most rounds, it wasn't very cool to have been the only person to vote in the final round before the tribes joined.
I told a bunch of people that Useless was the most inconsistant voter (because he was) and most people voted him off. There wasn't a real alliance at this point.
Things changed when the tribes joined together. I wanted to form an alliance with some people from the other tribe and target someone from my own tribe to show that old tribe loyalties weren't important (IIRC, Oblivion approached me with an alliance between yybor and himself). I randomly picked nonconformist, not for any reason. They suggested CivGeneral. Since I had already voted and suggested Emp.Napoleon to vote, our votes went for nonconformist instead. It wasn't really anything to go against them, and it wasn't to specifically target noncon. I just had already voted for someone random on my tribe.
But, right after this vote was displayed, nonconformist comes back from Germania, and I was really worried that he might try to vote back against me. I was going to target him, but Emperor Napoleon wisely told me to vote with the group (which was a very smart thing to do).
The next vote was the main vote, where things changed.
While he might have sent a similar message last round, this one made me feel as if he was in control of the game (he didn't seem to be sending it as a suggestion). I knew it would be only a matter of time before all those who oppose him would be voted off. But why didn't I vote for yybor? I wish the answer was simple, but it was probably an overcomplicated plan.
Last round, -Oblivion- had initially suggested I vote for Gumby. He quickly sent another message changing the target to Perfection. But I had saved the message, and I sent it to Gumby, telling him that he might be the next target
Then I told Bacon King to target Oblivion, and declare immunity. I figured that, although yybor was probably more active, getting Gumby to follow along would be more useful than going without him. Of course, things went pretty close to the deadline, as Bacon King hadn't seen the Private Message by late in the night. So I sent him an e-mail (I was kinda panicky that the whole thing would blow up in my face). This moment made me sure I would keep an alliance with Emperor Napoleon. When I said that, if this doesn't work, I will likely be gone because I started a conspiracy to break a poweful alliance. He reminded me that
we started a conspiracy to break a powerful alliance, which assured me that he was sticking by my side in this.
Although Gumby didn't vote with us, he didn't vote against us, and its possible that my message had an effect. Bacon King did see my PM (labeled Survivor [URGENT!!!!], but he might have seen the e-mail I sent him first

). Unfortunately, we didn't get the voted we needed, and were only saved by Bacon King's well-timed immunity.
Next round, yybor told me to target Bacon King now that his immunity was gone. I'm not sure if he believed me, or thought he might as well try it. I tried to send a half-hearted message in the hopes that it would help think I changed back to his side. If it did, I could care less. The point is, I wasn't able to get anyone else to vote for yybor, and Bacon King was voted out.
Now it became urgent. The next target would be either me or Emperor Napoleon. I had seen a message by Oblivion saying he knew he shouldn't trust the Frenchies. I figured that meant Emperor Napoleon would be the next target (since Napoleon was French). But, when I was writing the message, I realized my name could be interpretted as French as well. So I had no idea who would be the target, and I didn't have the voted to beat him. Luckily I was saved by nonconformist, who, either confusing us for French, or wanted to help those who were agains the Frenchies, warned that yybor was conspiring against the French.
Although I already knew that, it meant nonconformist might be a much needed vote. I told him I wasn't French (since it wouldn't be fair for me to pretend I was), but his vote is very much needed, because, without it, yybor would win the game. I asked him if yybor had a specific target, but apparently only both of us together were the target. I also approached Wildfire, with the hope that he would be the turning vote. I sent his a message, but he never responded. I declared my immunity as my last act, thinking that Wildfire might have tipped him off. My only hope was that he did not, and yybor, thinking that he already had enough votes, would save his immunity for later. Nonconformist, Napoleon, and I were the only ones to vote for yybor, but luckily, with less people, there were less votes needed. Wildfire didn't vote, but it didn't matter because I had declared immunity (I did ask CivCube what would happen if we both had declared immunity, but he didn't know).
Once this round ended, I felt a huge relief, followed by another panic. I figured people would surely see me as trying to control the game, and vote me off next. I thought about forming different alliances, but I figured the jury was stacked with people I voted for, and the best route was to stay with people who voted the same (plus I had gone this far with Emperor Napoleon, it didn't seem right to change that now). I might have had talks with Wildfire to try and stay friendly (also, I think I tried to convince him that I still had my immunity). The vote went for Gumby.
After that, things became worse. My only alliance member left, thankfully to be replaced by someone not in the game

Since I could never tell the sincerity of the alliance with Wildfire, I figured it would be best to offer an alliance with Souron before someone else did, and continue the alliance as if it was the same as before. Thankfully he agreed, but I didn't think I had much choice. Nonconformist was the next to go.
This was the final round, it was me, Souron, and Wildfire. With 3 left, I figured anything goes, and I was half expecting Wildfire and Souron to unite to kick me out (if he had offered for me to vote for Souron I might have even considered it). But, unfortunately, apathy was the only thing that happened, and I was left with Souron, who I figured had a much better chance of winning, as he only voted for a couple of people, since he was a fill-in for a previous player.
yybor offered to let me bribe him (although some would call it blackmail

). I declined to accept, so my sig stays the same. He told me that, unless Souron changes his sig, he would probably vote for me, since I was in the game the whole time.
When the votes were tallied, I breathed a sigh of relief. It was a close vote on a very challenging game. Although I think hard work is very important to winning this game, I would never have won it without some luck, and I though there was no way I could win several times. With only a few slight changes, the game could have turned out dramatically different (although not every different version resulted in me loosing the game

).
I thank everyone who voted for me, and CivCube for hosting this game, it truley was a lot of fun
EDIT: I just deleted all the PMs I was saving to make this, and my number dropped from 68 to 3

I was actually starting to expect a pop-up asking if I wanted a read receipt when I was typing normal posts.