I think you have to take out the neighbor’s cap w/ CBs or XBs. Once he gets his UU, he will come calling for sure. In your T138 screen shot, how many turns before youTurn 152 they came swarming with...
have Machinery? I think you want to go back to T130 or so, and with the cities you have building Workshop at T138, have them each build a CB first. Even the mere three CBs and two Pikes you are showing could be enough to start off a defensive war, and the neighbors Settler is exposed, so that is a good place to start.
The AI is very predictable. You fortify your two Pikes in front of Pozan, DOW him before he is ready, and his units will come to you.
P.S., I think you were smart to do five cities. All game long, I regretted not settling NE of Warsaw. I was sure an AI would be give me a city to capture, which they kind of did, but only ever at the end of the Peninsula, so kept razing the same spot.
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