I am placing this number one because Hawaii is the one exploration era civ without any satisfying start point, even moreso than Inca who at least shared New Granada territory with the Maya.
So I will peg the fourth slot as Byzantium, with Aztecs as a potential upset (as I think we can loosely accept Pachacuti leading Maya -> Inca -> Mexico for now, whereas Byzantium would "finish out" Greece, Ottomans, and Russia for now.
I really don't think this Inca logic is very sound, if we are using this logic of paths through history. The Inca may have 'shared' New Granada territory with the Maya in the most technical way, though I don't think they did? The Maya barely got into modern day Honduras, where New Granada barely got into Costa Rica. But even if they did, that's almost the same argument as "Armenia is somewhat satisfying as a change into Great Britain, because both were controlled by the Romans at one point". There's some limited evidence that we have for contact between northern regions of Tawantinsuyu and Mesoamerica from metallurgical similarities like the axe-monies, but even then it's between western mesoamerica (and not the Maya). There's no strong evidence of any meaningful interaction between the Maya and the Inca, and once having been controlled by the same imperial force is not a very satisfying argument, I think. Similarly, the argument that Pachacuti leading Maya -> Inca -> Mexico is in less need of finishing out than something like Greece -> Spain -> France just feels like it's putting indigenous civs in the box of "well they're all civs connected to indigenous american groups, so they're basically connected". Greece had a meaningful connection and impact on medieval Spain, and IMO is in less need of 'finishing out' than Meso- and South America by basically any relevant standard for these geographical/historical pathways.
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