CTIV-9: The Academians

Did we build the shrine?

Roster
ChrTh
Ruff_Hi
Maquis -- Built Alhazad's Academy :dance:
Scowler -- UP!
GreyFox -- On Deck!
JesusOnEez

I'll take a look at the save later and make some comments ... we really need to start thinking about victory conditions.
 
I'll probably play early tomorrow, so feel free to add comments first if you wish.
 
Well, as I said, I was planning on playing this early this morning, but now that I've looked at the save I think we should discuss the other things that Maquis forgot to mention... :rolleyes: :shake: ;) :)

I see that we have a settler due next turn, which raises two questions:
  1. Where are we going found another city? (I don't see any worthwhile sites)
  2. What will this mean for the variant? We currently have 8 cities, and 3 of them are lacking Academies. Do we have enough time to pop 4 more scientists?

This brings me on to my next point:
  • Nanjing is currently our best producer of GPP (24/turn), thanks to the National Epic, but has only a 12% chance of popping a scientist! :crazyeye: The next best GP factory is Ptah, which is currently generating 18GPP/turn. We could add a scientist here to bring it up to 24, but this would mean (nearly) stagnating the city. Excess food is limited so I propose cancelling the lumbermill (7turns remaining) to the NE and building a farm instead; also replacing the grassland cottage (not yet a hamlet) to the SW with a farm. This can then become our breeding ground for scientists.

civilization420060710133635255.jpg


civilization420060710133552079.jpg

Foreign Policy:
HC is way ahead in power, with N not far behind. They are good buddies, and are both worst enemies with FDR (HC is furious with him), but they are also at -2 and +1 respectively with us. Just as well we are trading lots with them (will we start getting demands to break contact with FDR?), but some attention to military would definitely be sensible.

We are currently ranked 3rd in population. For the purposes of a diplo win I guess HC is probably 1st, so MM (+15) and FDR (+9) would hopefully vote for us...

Research:
Chemistry due next turn. We could get Constitution (Representation) in 5 turns, but MM already has it. Or we could go for Corporation in 4 and use it and Chemistry to do some trading - Mansa has Constitution, SciMeth, and Rifling.

Thoughts?

------------------------

@ Ruff: This would presumably be just the Foreign Advisor mod rather than your code, it seems to me there is a bug somewhere, judging by this screen. The figures for the other civs relations towards us are completely out...

civilization420060710125528501.jpg
 
Once the settler is ditched, building more farms at Zu Thingey is another possibility.
 
Scowler - I would go Caste System / pacifism and hire lots of science types in Nanjing - that was my thinking and with the Epic there we should be able to put out 60 GPPs per turn (nearly all science). The GP pool is currently polluted because we have hired engineers and priests - we must watch this in future. If we swap now to this route, with only 200 points invested, we should be able to get the scientist odds up a lot.

We need 600 more GPPs, then 900, 1000, 1200, 1400, ... So, for 3 scientists that is 2500 points or 42 turns (@ 60 per turn). For 4 scientists - 62 turns. All of this assumes that we only pop scientists.

Re the mod - I noticed that and have assumed it is a problem in the original mod. I haven't had time to dig into it but I think it only mis-represents our relationships and not the AI-AI ones. It does come and go (I think).
 
Good idea re. civics - assuming we are allowed to keep them (i.e. no wars)

However, Nanjing won't fully reset until after the next GP pops, and even then I suspect we won't get more than about 70% chance of a GS (assuming 5 scientists + Tao Shrine [priest] + Nat Epic [artist]).
 
Scowler said:
However, Nanjing won't fully reset until after the next GP pops, and even then I suspect we won't get more than about 70% chance of a GS (assuming 5 scientists + Tao Shrine [priest] + Nat Epic [artist]).
Hmmn - 5 scientists = 15 pts, shrine = 1, epic = 1 for a total of 17 points (unadjusted) or 68 in total with a 88.2% (15/17) chance of popping a scientist. My figures above assumed 60 (adjusted) points per turn. 68 will bring those down a bit.
 
Haven't had a chance to seriously consider what's being discussed, but I don't think GP % resets after each pop. Not positive though.
 
ChrTh said:
Haven't had a chance to seriously consider what's being discussed, but I don't think GP % resets after each pop. Not positive though.
Yeah - they do. The percentages reflect the total pool of GPPs and their source. So, if you are currently 200/800 all made up of priests and then you run the next 600 as scientists, you end up with a 2/8 chance of a priest and a 6/8 chance of a scientist. If you run the next one as all scientists, then you will get a scientist.
 
Is the probability not calculated according to number of sources rather than actual points. So, 5/7 + 1/7 +1/7. Or am I misunderstanding Kylearan's article?

Kylearan said:
Note that difference: The number of GPPs will determine when a great person will be generated, and the number of sources will determine what type it will be.


Examples:

* You have the Parthenon (great artist source) and a priest specialist (great prophet source) in the city the whole time. Your chances will be 50% to get a great artist and 50% to get a great prophet. Note that it's irrelevant that the Parthenon produced only 2 GPPs while the priest produced 3 GPPs per turn; they both count as one source.

* A city has the Great Library (great scientist source), an engineer, and an artist specialist, plus the two free scientist specialists from the Great Library. So you have 5 sources (one wonder and four specialists). This will give you a 3/5 = 60% chance of getting a great scientist, a 1/5 = 20% chance of getting a great engineer, and a 1/5 = 20% chance of getting a great artist.

* You have the Pyramids (great engineer source) in a city. One turn before the city reaches the threshold to produce a great person, you hire a scientist. What happens? Well, the game remembers that for every turn but the last, the great engineer source had been the only source of GPPs, and that only on the last turn there had been a different source present. So it is a 100% chance of getting a great engineer during all turns but the last, and a 50%/50% chance for the last turn. Since it averages the odds over all the turns, you will have a 99% chance of getting a great engineer, and a 1% chance of getting a great scientist.

* Assuming normal game speed, no great person generated yet: You hire a priest specialist for 22 turns. Then you fire him, and hire two scientist specialists for 11 turns. Intuitively, one would assume that because you had 22*1=22 sources for a great prophet and 11*2=22 sources for a great scientist, this would give you a 50%/50% chance. But because the game averages over turns, the odds will be 22/33 = 67% for a great prophet and 11/33=33% for a great scientist instead, because you had 22 turns with only great prophet sources and 11 turns with only great scientist sources.
(Thanks to Roland Johansen for suggesting this!)


Once the threshold is reached and a great person is generated, the city "forgets" which types of sources there had been before and starts anew. So if you hire a scientist to produce a great scientist, and after generating that great scientist remove the scientist specialist and hire a priest instead, you will have a 100% chance of getting a great prophet as the next great person, since the city will have forgotten that there had been a great scientist source in the city during the previous cycle.
 
If we could irrigate the tile 2E of Nanjing, that would make that 3 food and enable us to hire one more scientist for 18+1+1 = 80 (adjusted) GPPs per turn.
 
I had another look at the save and concluded that under Pacifism we could get the following:

Nanjing: 68GPP, with no guarantee of a GS. Ruff's suggestion of another farm 2E of the city would require chain farming 3 squares, destroying a cottage at Ptah in the process, as well as destroying the cottage on the target square.

Ptah: 63GPP with 100% chance of a GS. We would have to make the modifications I outlined above with an additional plains farm to keep the city growing with 1 food surplus. Also means losing out on much of the manufacturing capability of the city.

Zu: 45GPP with 100% chance of a GS. We would have to destroy a couple of improvements to build farms and it would be a struggle to get 5 scientists - the city would have to be stagnated.

I would ideally like some feedback and a consensus before starting my round - but I am leaning towards choosing Ptah.
 
If we go with Ptah - sorry about putting the Epic in Nanjing. I'll get the whip out tonight and teach myself that I should talk to the team about this sort of thing.
 
Ptah made more sense as a GS-Factory since it was getting the Great Library. Nothing wrong with putting the Epic in Nanjing, ESPECIALLY if we decide to go for a cultural victory.
 
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