... often losses battles with 80-85% win probability - is this just mine experience?
In my experience - even playing with sometimes playing with the option "new random seed generated" - sometimes you really do get "bad RNG luck"
But it seems to be more than just bad luck. I have yet to do extensive study/research into this theory of mine, but I really question the veracity of the battle outcome predictor.
Without the BUG mod even with just the % chance to win for your unit, or with all the options enabled with the BUG mod sometimes the displayed odds or chances are just totally off from actual outcomes.
Again, since I haven't documented any of my findings yet, you can't really take what I'm saying but sometimes (for example) on a battle which I'm told I have a 67% chance of winning, I will lose 10-15 battles in a row (saving, reloading from before the battle, etc.) Of course, in the interest of time I never really follow up on that particular battle and see if I continue to lose battle after battle as long as I just win 1...
Statistics nerds: (I use that term endearingly because I am partly one myself!) please enlighten me: on a battle which I should have a 2/3 chance to win, how likely is it that I should go 0-for-10 or 0-for-15 before finally winning for the first time?
I mean, I know I can just calculate (1/3)^10 (or 15) to find out the % chance that it will occur. But is it reasonable to have such runs, or is it something to be irritated by?
I have noticed it working both ways though - to be fair. For example in my latest game as USA I was battling with my grenadiers and minutemen and only engaging in battles where I had >75% chance of winning and out of at least 15 battles maybe 20, I've only had to reload once or twice.
So maybe it all evens out, but I still think there's something fishy with the %'s