Ernesto's Progress

[Babbler]

This could be a biggie.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 252042
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[Xanikk999]

Is.. that heading straight for new orleans!!

They have the worst luck...

 

[De Lorimier]

I'm sure there's a good reason for it and I'd like to know it. Why in the world do they name storms?

 

[Perfection]

I'm sure there's a good reason for it and I'd like to know it. Why in the world do they name storms?

Easier to remember and talk about.

 

[tomsnowman123]

For the next five days that storms is going to be over very warm water. Doesn't look great for the Gulf Coast, unfortunately.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Isn't Ernesto the first name of Che Guevara ?

I'm not sure Chavez would be glad to know a tropical storm is named this way ! And the funniest is that it is heading towards Cuba while Castro is near the end !

 

[JohnRM]

Great, we get to hear more whining from the city slickers. Good luck to the "Chocolate City".

 

[Leatherneck]

If it hit N.O. LA ... I don't want to hear a damn thing ... let School Bus Ray Nagan and Gov'ner Blank-o deal with it and I'll watch it on the Comedy Channel.

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

If it hit N.O. LA ... I don't want to hear a damn thing ... let School Bus Ray Nagan and Gov'ner Blank-o deal with it and I'll watch it on the Comedy Channel.

Well, he MIGHT actaully have learned something from the last one, but I wouldn't put you bottom dollar on it.

 

[JohnRM]

I am sure that there are some nice folks living in the city and surrounding area. I hope that they get out and that the rest of them drown.

 

[ThePrankMonkey]

lets hope ray naygan doesnt make it out alive.

making comments about a big hole in new york city as a way to excuse your own incompetence and lack of progress really ticks me off.

"well you guys still have a big hole..." shut up, douche nozzle.

 

[{|}$~\]

How can you be so heartless???????

 

[bigdog5994]

god i thought this thread was gonna be about the hurricane not how much you guys want the people of new orleans to die

 

[Smellincoffee]

I haven't seen one of those little tracking charts in a while. I was hoping to not see one for a while yet, but it seems as if that dream has been shattered.

 

[Chieftess]

I have relatives there (3rd, 4th, 5th cousins - great-grandmother's sister's family I think). Some of their homes were lost in Katrina - wonder what they'll do if another one comes.

 

[Leatherneck]

If you are dumb enough to live on the coast BELOW sea-level I don't want to hear it when you are flooded. And to build NOLA back in a whole on the coast again is just insane, move it up river to high ground it's cost less than building it back. You will never win a battle again the Mighty Mississippi and the Gulf they are just to powerful.

 

[Chieftess]

I don't like the way it's looking at New Orleans now. Now they're saying it could be a cat 3 hurricane by the time it enters the northern Gulf area. Based on the percentage path graphic (dark green to purple), Southern Louisiana looks like it has a 20-30% chance of being hit. They'll probably have their intermediate update in 30 minutes or so.

 

[Quasar1011]

Keep in mind that the official track is less certain the further out one goes. Here's a chart that shows the predicted paths from various meteorological computer models (with XTRP being extrapolation of current movement). As you can see, Ernesto's landfall location is quite uncertain at this point. Often the official track splits down the middle of these various model outputs.

 

[ThePrankMonkey]

How can you be so heartless???????

how can he be so thoughtless and incompetent?

 

[homeyg]

God damnit! How is this happening again??

I live in New Orleans.

And all you people making your bullfeathers comments, just shut the hell up.