Andrew Livings
Warlord
I was just looking for my outline of a future European scenario depicting the break-up of the EU, but alas, it appears I have deleted it. With good reason because I'm never likely to make the damn thing...too many other projects in line first.
Anyway, basically European politics at the moment are comparable to that of the USA in the period before 1860 with the evolution of a stronger federal power and the conflict with state sovereignty. You guys had to fight a civil war for four years before establishing the supremacy of federal institutions; my idea for Europe was that a similar breaking point would happen and fracture the Union. Perhaps a treaty is negotiated that would transfer final sovereignty to Brussels, but certain Eurosceptic powers refuse to ratify. The European Commission decides that the treaty is legitimate anyway and that the other states are rebelling. The rebel states mobilize their armed forces, and defy federal authority in a staged incident (such as firing on a federal warship). This leads to ful-blown civil war to settle the dispute.
Now this raises some rather interesting possibilities: Russia lurks on the sidelines and tries to win back her old influence over the Baltic and Central European states. Turkey nurses old grudges at failing to have her candidacy recognised, and considers annexing the remaining half of Cyprus (which by then would be in the EU). America dithers (as usual).
I can see some education is required for non EU citizens:
The CIS hardly functions as a diplomatic body. It refers only to ex-Soviet states, not Soviet satellites.
With the exception of Switzerland (and Norway until her oil runs lower), all European countries want to join the Union. As does Turkey, as does Morrocco.
Oh yes: division of countries.
Eurosceptics: Britain, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Spain (increasingly)
Core-European (federals): France, Germany, Benelux countries, Italy, all the recent applicants.
Not sure about Portugal: doesn't make the news much. Also Ireland is unclear after their voters initial rejection of the Nice treaty, though this has now been ratified.
What do you think?
edit: all the pundits are saying that the EU will go from 15 to 28 members in a new round of admissions "perhaps" in 2007. The lagards are currently Bulgaria and Romania. Turkey hasn't yet cleared the first hurdle of negotiations, so that might take a bit longer.
Anyway, basically European politics at the moment are comparable to that of the USA in the period before 1860 with the evolution of a stronger federal power and the conflict with state sovereignty. You guys had to fight a civil war for four years before establishing the supremacy of federal institutions; my idea for Europe was that a similar breaking point would happen and fracture the Union. Perhaps a treaty is negotiated that would transfer final sovereignty to Brussels, but certain Eurosceptic powers refuse to ratify. The European Commission decides that the treaty is legitimate anyway and that the other states are rebelling. The rebel states mobilize their armed forces, and defy federal authority in a staged incident (such as firing on a federal warship). This leads to ful-blown civil war to settle the dispute.
Now this raises some rather interesting possibilities: Russia lurks on the sidelines and tries to win back her old influence over the Baltic and Central European states. Turkey nurses old grudges at failing to have her candidacy recognised, and considers annexing the remaining half of Cyprus (which by then would be in the EU). America dithers (as usual).
I can see some education is required for non EU citizens:
The CIS hardly functions as a diplomatic body. It refers only to ex-Soviet states, not Soviet satellites.
With the exception of Switzerland (and Norway until her oil runs lower), all European countries want to join the Union. As does Turkey, as does Morrocco.
Oh yes: division of countries.
Eurosceptics: Britain, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Spain (increasingly)
Core-European (federals): France, Germany, Benelux countries, Italy, all the recent applicants.
Not sure about Portugal: doesn't make the news much. Also Ireland is unclear after their voters initial rejection of the Nice treaty, though this has now been ratified.
What do you think?
edit: all the pundits are saying that the EU will go from 15 to 28 members in a new round of admissions "perhaps" in 2007. The lagards are currently Bulgaria and Romania. Turkey hasn't yet cleared the first hurdle of negotiations, so that might take a bit longer.
We Swedes are very peaceful. 
