FfH2 Game Balance Thread

BTS also calculates the first strikes wrong. the odds you see is only a approximation, but it is good enough in most cases so you won't notice easily. The approximation is useful for performance reasons (the AI checks attack odds probably a million times every turn)
 
@Sephi Re: I have no idea what this has to do with game balance though.
The first words I used were "This is less about game balance..." I just didn't want to open a new thread; particularly if this is something that is not native to FFH2.
@ Tlalynet: No I only stack attack with throw away mobs that I'm expecting to lose. Big units get solo attacks odds.
I'm going to check out the Statistics screen like Senethro says. I fully expect to have probability slap me in the face with the truth as soon as I see it. This is why I don't gamble, because there is no such thing as a "Sure thing".
I mainly just wanted to comment anywhere to see if it was just my horsehockey human perception or if it was indeed a known complaint by users. I think Senethro answered that (and others depending on whether first strikes are in fact calculated right or not.)
 
@ Senthro,
I might be thinking of BUG that calculates first strikes right...

@ Cro,
Sorry, its probably perception or just plain bad luck. That or most other people have unusually good luck, its hard to tell with this kind of thing :)
 
the advanced odds module in BUG probably calculates it better. Just compare getCombatOdds in CvGameCoreUtils.cpp with how combatresults are calculated and you will see that it is an approximation.

@Cromagnum it's a known complaint and the defensive Strikes in FFH make it even worse. If you attack 99% odds displayed, but risk to take 30% damage from a defensive strike, the actual odds are probably only 80%. Your perception is correct, though the effect is probably smaller than you might think. It's better if you start a new thread rather than post randomly in an existing one. That helps people who are interested in your topic to take part in the discussion ;)
 
This'll be my last post here about it. I may make a new thread in the future. I must have misunderstood Senethro, the statistics screen shows no information regarding wins/losses at particular combat odds, which is what I was hoping to see. The strange part is: I played again last night for a few hours and am still noticing unnaturally high losses when combat odds are between (and including) 95 and 97%. There is a specific 96.2% that almost always results in a loss. And this isn't fighting against units with defensive strikes. I wouldn't mind going back to take a look at this a bit more since it always bugged me. I can say that in the many years I've been playing Civ 4 (vanilla and FFH2) I've only lost a total of three units to 99.9% odds and at least one of those could have been to defensive strikes. And since even though I feel the math may be a bit off at times I still love playing this game.
 
When I said to look at the statistics screen, I meant if you looked at the enemy casualties and your casualties, it would indicate a number of fights that your "constantly" losing at >95% odds would seem acceptable. On a normal map with an appropriately warlike attitude there should be at least 500 deaths by turn 300. Lots of room there for unusual deaths.
 
I don't want to get into it too much but I never said "constantly". I said more often than not. I'm admitting (and did admit that) it could be that I'm not keeping track properly.
 
Combat odds don't tell you the outcome of your battle, and the results of one battle cannot be used to predict the outcome of future battles. If you see 95% odds, and attack, and lose, you can't validly conclude that you will win your next 19 battles at those same odds. You can't even expect to have a higher chance to win the next one battle. Only in very large sample sizes do the combat odds begin to have some sort of concrete meaning. For example, if you fought 10,000 battles at 95% odds you could expect to lose about 500 of them. This does not mean that those 500 losses couldn't be your first 500 battles. After fighting 10,000 such battles, even if they were all wins or all losses, you still would not be able to make a more accurate prediction of the outcome of battle #10,001 than "95%".
 
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