Frontier Justice [Game Thread]
- Thread starter Zack
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spaceman98
Plotting something
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Commencing struggling:
D1, I didn't see enough of a case on Omega or JK, but I saw what looked like non-random vote movements. I'd seen people mislynched for flinching fairly recently, and I saw Omega's reaction as a new player (reasonably) trying to save herself from being lynched on her first day, rather than an outed wolf. As a result I played a part in the KM wagon, which may or may not have saved Omega.
I spelled out my reasoning for my votes after that quite clearly, both why I went after tak, and why I went after Arakhor. Its all in the thread. I can dig it up if you want. I actually still think lynching tak was the right decision all things considered. Were he mafia, lynching him today would be nearly impossible. My only mistake, I contend, was lynching Arakhor, though even then, I feel a townie trying to avoid giving off the impression of PIS is pretty good lynchbait.
So umm. yeah... #spacemandidnothingwrong
Ah well, enough speeking ill of the dead, back to the living:
huh? we had a lot of hat self-votes on D1
so tl;dr of this post: in your opinion everyone is probably a wolf
We DO need a wagon today, on whoever the town picks. There's only one more living townie than mafia. If everyone votes according to their allignment, today ends 4/3. If the outlaws vote together and one townie votes "off wagon" because they feel like it, it will be 3/3/1 and Megs will get the hat as the first poster. Asuming popular opinion is correct and she's mafia, her pick for the lynch will be the townie.
So, in retrospect, no one should have mentioned PIS at all and I'd have been safe... except of course if most of the people on my waggon were scum.
That's all very well, but what happens if town and mafia don't vote for two targets according to alignment? Don't you think that would be way too obvious?
Mat93
Emperor
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I don't know. Is the short answer. Southern being my leading guess, but right now, is only an educated guess.
And this is different to day 1 hat voting how?
Assuming Omega is scum (I'm about 99% sure), theres already going to be at least 1 of the other 2 scum in that wagon. They wouldn't put all their eggs in one basket at this point, especially considering she barely survived the lynch yesterday.
If I'm wrong there, they are being very ballsy.
Also, isn't a tie in the lynch completely separate to who gets the hat? I.e. hat vote goes resolved, then the hat resolves the lynch tie? Therefore if I remember the tallies correctly, even if it gets tied, I get the hat and Omega gets lynched?
Zack
99% hot gas
.....
Zack
99% hot gas
It was meant to be a rule d1 too, but I forgot until it was too late.
spaceman98
Plotting something
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Then we're screwed. The thing is, if town scatters their votes or wagons a townie, we lose. Mafia can also scatter their votes to conceal themselves (and right now probabl are) but they'll have a chance to coordinate in QT by end of day, which we don't.
They don't always do that. I was in a game once where I was mafia, and if we had voted together we would have won, but Pizza forgot to switch his vote at end of day. Had he done that though, we would have won one day earlier (Ciertako I believe)
right now yes, but your only one vote up on the hat tally. If SK votes the hat to Xym, the hat vote ties and megs gets the hat.
Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
that bsmith vote does make me question him (I have yet to reread the thread despite saying I will)
4 omega: (spaceman xym mat93 bsmith)
1 mat93 (omega)
1 southernking: (kingmorgan)
1 spaceman (southernking)
the only scenario I see southernking voting spaceman while wolf with omega is in that spaceman/southernking/omega wolf team. If, say, it was omega/southernking/<anyone else> he could just hop onto bus omega.
Do I think the scum are thinking this much? Probably not. The best way to not be read as a scum is to make any patterns (e.g. vote/kill randomly)
4 omega: (spaceman xym mat93 bsmith)
1 mat93 (omega)
1 southernking: (kingmorgan)
1 spaceman (southernking)
the only scenario I see southernking voting spaceman while wolf with omega is in that spaceman/southernking/omega wolf team. If, say, it was omega/southernking/<anyone else> he could just hop onto bus omega.
Do I think the scum are thinking this much? Probably not. The best way to not be read as a scum is to make any patterns (e.g. vote/kill randomly)
Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
I guess there is incentive for the scum to not bus though, I mean if the vote tally rose up to 5 or something it automatically means a scum is on that wagon, and gives the town to discuss whether it is just a faulty wagon or if someone is bussing.
more info, more clues........an outlaw's worst nightmare.
better to keep the vote in that 3-4 range, perhaps with a bus, such that one may always ask, "but what if THIS is the all-town vote......"
more info, more clues........an outlaw's worst nightmare.
better to keep the vote in that 3-4 range, perhaps with a bus, such that one may always ask, "but what if THIS is the all-town vote......"
Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
IF I was scum, my likely co conspirators would be SK and Arahkor (you could swap SK with edse). If there's any players I've been working together with in the course of the game, it's those two. However, everyone I named but SK is dead at this point, and they were townie. It's almost it's because I'm not mafia or something along those lines.
for what it is worth I never like arguments like these. I mean, it's so easy to discredit even if earnest. Literally anyone in the game can be a wolf partner with BSmith at this point, he has been inactive like every game phase and even missed a vote I believe (no offense BSmith).
Trying to make a defense on "well who are my partners" is always immediately discredited
Anyways, the plot thickens.....
Spoiler :
notes:
(1) the scum clearly did make a hat-grab day 1. I also strongly suspect scum always like to avoid ganging up on a particular candidate day 1, and now we have the proof in the puddin of that as it is impossible for 3 scum to be on any 1 candidate day 1. A statement I was very confident in earlier in the thread, and it is true
(2) did Bsmith flinch on the chopping block day 2? I know I personally leaned town on atheotes at the time for responding fine on the chopping block (yes, I know I later voted for him to empower the hat-bearer in case atheotes removed his self-vote), but everyone on him that day at the end of the day was town. Perhaps the scum had to save Bsmith day 2.
(3) I remember posting about the speed of the takhisis counterwagon on the atheotes/takhisis lynch day. Need to relook at the speed of that wagon -- obviously the atheos aspect was wrong, but it felt like the scum said "alright, we got a viable second option to hide in, the solution to pollution is dilution! Let's spread out our votes gang!"
Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
I don't care about quintiple posting or whatever
The Western joke theory still ring true, the only question is whether Kingmorgan or mat broke the chain or not.......
Let us look at that day 2 vote progression:
Here was the status:
Then look at this speed tho:
to end with:
Al Sipsclar had a key vote there making BSmith really on the chopping block. Did the scum scramble to save him? Kingmorgan pulled explicitly OFF a 3-vote xym to make a 3-vote atheotes. Why? Was it his plan to unvote all along if any risk came along to push xym?
And re: #spacemandidnothingwrong:
that's not true at all. The vote record clearly shows this critical vote progression day 2 is 100% unexplained. Whether you forget this happened because you are an absent minded townie (I mean look at me, I didn't make note of it) or because you want to shrug off my criticism of you is unknown.
But #spacemandidnothingwrong is explicitly a lie right now. You chose atheotes OVER xym and copped out in your post that you were "fine with jarrema or xym". And I guess you voted before al sipsclar switched off atheotes, so you could have thought you were making it 4-3-3 (though I as a townie never paid attention to lynch tallies when voting)
and no one was around at the deadline except me and Arakhor. I'd be personally disappointed if Bsmith was a scum from post #169, I don't think BSmith would really miss votes and post #169 if he was a scum. I feel like he would feel a bit more obliged to the game.
Real sorry if I saved BSmith guys and gals if he is scum, I knew this might haunt me:
but I just think all roads point to spaceman or kingmorgan (maybe both). Is it either a kingmorgan/xym Wolf pairing or is it along the spaceman/omega wolf pairing?
Spoiler :
The Western joke theory still ring true, the only question is whether Kingmorgan or mat broke the chain or not.......
Let us look at that day 2 vote progression:
Here was the status:
Then look at this speed tho:
to end with:
Al Sipsclar had a key vote there making BSmith really on the chopping block. Did the scum scramble to save him? Kingmorgan pulled explicitly OFF a 3-vote xym to make a 3-vote atheotes. Why? Was it his plan to unvote all along if any risk came along to push xym?
And re: #spacemandidnothingwrong:
that's not true at all. The vote record clearly shows this critical vote progression day 2 is 100% unexplained. Whether you forget this happened because you are an absent minded townie (I mean look at me, I didn't make note of it) or because you want to shrug off my criticism of you is unknown.
But #spacemandidnothingwrong is explicitly a lie right now. You chose atheotes OVER xym and copped out in your post that you were "fine with jarrema or xym". And I guess you voted before al sipsclar switched off atheotes, so you could have thought you were making it 4-3-3 (though I as a townie never paid attention to lynch tallies when voting)
and no one was around at the deadline except me and Arakhor. I'd be personally disappointed if Bsmith was a scum from post #169, I don't think BSmith would really miss votes and post #169 if he was a scum. I feel like he would feel a bit more obliged to the game.
Real sorry if I saved BSmith guys and gals if he is scum, I knew this might haunt me:
Spoiler :
but I just think all roads point to spaceman or kingmorgan (maybe both). Is it either a kingmorgan/xym Wolf pairing or is it along the spaceman/omega wolf pairing?
Kennigit
proud 2 boxer
i mean this is my last post (I swear) but it is only 2130 my time
But shoutouts to Xym for incredibly good posts questioning omega all game (day 2 he has a great post asking why omega limited his votes to the pool of "inactive" candidates, he had a wonderfully spoilered post the other day on 10 of omega's post)
If those are made as a scum to seal the deal on an omega lynchbait then wowzers. Of course they could just be straight up wrong (town on town action) but.....
I'd call Xym town based on those, and I'd call BSmith town mostly for metagame reasons. I think that day 2 involvement seems town.
Same day 2 involvement kingmorgan explicitly posted "I'll be bold" to push for atheotes lead. He's made very questionable votes all along the game but......well they're out in the open. Fortune may favor the brave outlaw but, as I have flip flopped more than Jeremiah's Old Fashioned Flap Jacks on the griddle, I'd call KM a bit more townie at this point
So three scum among spaceman/mat93/southernking/omega? That's rough to sort out, especially considering spaceman and mat93 are voting omega right now
An omega bus by the outlaws is definitely possible today........
But shoutouts to Xym for incredibly good posts questioning omega all game (day 2 he has a great post asking why omega limited his votes to the pool of "inactive" candidates, he had a wonderfully spoilered post the other day on 10 of omega's post)
If those are made as a scum to seal the deal on an omega lynchbait then wowzers. Of course they could just be straight up wrong (town on town action) but.....
I'd call Xym town based on those, and I'd call BSmith town mostly for metagame reasons. I think that day 2 involvement seems town.
Same day 2 involvement kingmorgan explicitly posted "I'll be bold" to push for atheotes lead. He's made very questionable votes all along the game but......well they're out in the open. Fortune may favor the brave outlaw but, as I have flip flopped more than Jeremiah's Old Fashioned Flap Jacks on the griddle, I'd call KM a bit more townie at this point
So three scum among spaceman/mat93/southernking/omega? That's rough to sort out, especially considering spaceman and mat93 are voting omega right now
An omega bus by the outlaws is definitely possible today........
spaceman98
Plotting something
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first person to post this day phase
re day 2: oh yeah your right.
I honestly don't remember too well why I voted atheotes. Here's what I remember: atheotes's posts struck me as dubious, for reasons that were discussed extensively later, while the BSmith lynch just felt like a lurkerhunt, which rarely yields results.
re tallies: you should realize that I obsess over tallies as mafia or as town.
But yeah your right I kindof did save BSmith there now that you mention it
How does SK fit into this? are you saying he's town and his unvote yesterday wasn't a save of omega? Granted, I also lobbied hard for tak yesterday, but SK's unexplained vote and insistance that town scatter its votes today seems really sketch to me.
why mat especailly given Omega's tunneling on him? Do you think that's some kind of elaborate bus? I guess its possible, but mat pushed Omega d4 and 5.
________________________________
Personally I see Omega/SK as the most likely pairing. KM or BSmith as their most likely partner (you pretty much sum up the cases against them)
Omega124
Challenging Fate
Well, I'm going to be gone, and I'm going to be gone until the lock ends it looks like. So I am going to do one last apology and hope for the best that someone listens.
I'm not a scum. If you lynch me, the game will end. The mafia will win. It'll be GG. You people have done a pretty damn good job of trying to make me look guilty, but what evidence do you guys honestly have? Xym going extra hard on me on the early game? If I had the time in life to go around and do that to others here, would that make me look townie? I have to be fair, life has been kicking me in the ovaries recently so I haven't been able to really take a hard look at this thread as much as I like too (SK and Joan can confirm).
@Kennigit: Firstly, tl;dr that crap if you going to write five essays in a row why I'm scum. Not everyone has all the time in the world to read that. But I'm going to cover the argument that I zeroed in on, that I think is absolute bonkers:
I think its only "discredited" because it shows the biggest hole in any bussing against me. It's a perfectly valid point, if I can't be linked to the other mafia, its because chances are I'm not working with any of them because I'm not a scum. It's not a hard concept to grasp by any means (but considering everyone is being a moron with the goldenknight fiasco, maybe you guys really don't get basic logic and deduction sometimes).
Every crime in life doesn't just have a prepetrator, it has a motive. I really had no motive to kill anyone who died in the night phases. I would have definitely perfered to kill Mat like day 2 or 3 after he started to hound after me. It would be one less vote fanaticlly devoted against me. I'd kill SK night 1, so that there's no way people would associate an IOT cabal was going on. I'd probably would have killed Tak way earlier than he was lynched, since he represented a threat to our organized chaos. These are actually motivable kills.
But Goldenknight? Duff (one of the few people who believed I was town)? Etc, etc? If I was scum, these would be terrible kills on my part since they don't really further any end goal besides killing in itself. There's no good link between murder people and connections to me.
I think you overestimate the ability for scum to play randomlly. We're not machines; we're living, breathing people. We always have patterns to what we do. And no one can ever definitevly link me to any pattern for lynches or murders. Yet I'm going to die because of the way I talk, and we're going to lose because of it. Thanks a lot, people.
I'm not a scum. If you lynch me, the game will end. The mafia will win. It'll be GG. You people have done a pretty damn good job of trying to make me look guilty, but what evidence do you guys honestly have? Xym going extra hard on me on the early game? If I had the time in life to go around and do that to others here, would that make me look townie? I have to be fair, life has been kicking me in the ovaries recently so I haven't been able to really take a hard look at this thread as much as I like too (SK and Joan can confirm).
@Kennigit: Firstly, tl;dr that crap if you going to write five essays in a row why I'm scum. Not everyone has all the time in the world to read that. But I'm going to cover the argument that I zeroed in on, that I think is absolute bonkers:
I think its only "discredited" because it shows the biggest hole in any bussing against me. It's a perfectly valid point, if I can't be linked to the other mafia, its because chances are I'm not working with any of them because I'm not a scum. It's not a hard concept to grasp by any means (but considering everyone is being a moron with the goldenknight fiasco, maybe you guys really don't get basic logic and deduction sometimes).
Every crime in life doesn't just have a prepetrator, it has a motive. I really had no motive to kill anyone who died in the night phases. I would have definitely perfered to kill Mat like day 2 or 3 after he started to hound after me. It would be one less vote fanaticlly devoted against me. I'd kill SK night 1, so that there's no way people would associate an IOT cabal was going on. I'd probably would have killed Tak way earlier than he was lynched, since he represented a threat to our organized chaos. These are actually motivable kills.
But Goldenknight? Duff (one of the few people who believed I was town)? Etc, etc? If I was scum, these would be terrible kills on my part since they don't really further any end goal besides killing in itself. There's no good link between murder people and connections to me.
I think you overestimate the ability for scum to play randomlly. We're not machines; we're living, breathing people. We always have patterns to what we do. And no one can ever definitevly link me to any pattern for lynches or murders. Yet I'm going to die because of the way I talk, and we're going to lose because of it. Thanks a lot, people.
You know, I'd feel more sympathetic if you hadn't doomed me for a totally flimsy reason. Besides which, at this late stage, even if we voted randomly, we'd have a 43% chance of hitting a scum. What does that tell you?
