So. It seems I have found myself in the quite interesting position of kingmaker. It is obvious that I am not going to catch up with the big civs and snatch a surprise victory. However, my strategic position between Tigranes and ruff means I might be able to shift the balance between the top dogs just enough to ensure eventual victory for one of them.
There has been lots of behind the scenes plotting going on, but I think the time has come to drop the veil and openly announce our intentions and allegiances.
Will I join the anti-ruff alliance or will I remain loyal to my master? Either way there will be lots of fighting as the armies of Tigranes and ruff clash in my territory, doubtlessly causing lots of destruction and costing me several cities, even if the player I sided with proves victorious and eventually repels the invader. Let's consider the possible outcomes:
If I betray my master and let Tigranes' armies sweep through my lands to fight him at my eastern border, I have no guarantee of actually being able to expand eastward myself. I have no guarantee that Tigranes will not immediately turn on me the second ruff has been defeated, forcing me to fight two wars in succession, so that even if I win both of them, I will emerge technologically backwards and far behind the likes of Luthor or Phylhom, unable to ever catch up and win.
Ruff is the most powerful and advanced civ, and now finally the rest of the world has come to realize that they must all band together in order to defeat him. All of us together might actually stand a chance against him, but what would the post-war world look like then, especially for me? Would I be able to conquer enough of ruff's territory to catch up and get on equal footing with Tigranes, Luthor and Phylhom? Would I be able to play them against each other so one of them doesn't try to capture my lands for himself? Or would they come to an agreement with each other to split my civ up between them as was the fate of real life Poland? The only option remaining to me would be to become a vassal of one of the top dogs, but then what was the point of betraying ruff in the first place if I was only going to replace one master for another?
If I remain loyal to ruff however, it will be us against the world. I will either die or ruff will win the game, there's no alternative to these two outcomes. Now the question is, how likely is it that ruff is able to singlehandedly defeat the rest of the world combined? He is powerful and a very skilled player, but is it enough?
If I break free, I either die, become vassal of another civ, or win eventually.
If I stay, I die or ruff wins with me as his vassal.
Breaking free only to later become vassal of another player is just as unappealing as dying, because I'd rather just stay with the master I already have if I must have one at all. Therefore it comes down to whether I would be able to rise from the coming world war as a major power if I joined the allies or not. If the probability of that happening is lower than the probability of being defeated alongside ruff if I remain loyal, then I will remain as ruff's vassal.
You know, it's a real pity Permanent Alliances isn't enabled as a game setting. If it was, I'd join whoever promised to accept me as an ally and partner rather than submitting myself to the authority of someone else.
Oh well, I'll hold my turn for a bit to give everyone time to try to convince me to join their respective side before making my final decision.
Remember, the allies must convince me that it is likelier that I emerge a powerful civ on equal footing to them once ruff has been defeated than it is that ruff with me by his side will be defeated. ruff obviously needs to convince me of the opposite.
With that in mind, fight! With your words! For my allegiance! So that we can then actually fight, be it together or against each other!
? He hasn't been in this game for years.
