I agree that you are not going to win, if you are facing more units that you can handle, that is a given. We have to plan on the presumption that we will be able to handle the flow, otherwise no sense in starting.
I also agree the GLB would make a monster difference in the game. The part that I am not convinchave ed of is that we ANY chance to get it. The reason I doubt it is that we are not going to be able to get very many shields into a pre.
We have no temple and no lux to help keep the wonder city at a decent size to build one. We will have to pump 20% or more into lux and side line a solid town for about 40 turns. That means about 12 JT's not produced.
It requires that we get the tech before the AI is able to get Lit and pump out a the wonder. We had no town with 300 shields at 350BC and I doubt we will have one. So 150BC is a moot point. Now if you can get to around 90AD with no one finishing the GLB, you got a shot.
We would need start at 1000BC to met the time line of 150BC, if we had a town able to start a pre and not run into issues. I am not saying it cannot be done, but I am dubious. A straight AWDG on std map, sure. I do think the 400 shields could be important.
If you could get 4 cats out by 400BC, you could be in a position to retreat units, rather than having to kill them with one move units that are likely to get attacked. I am not sure it would be doable and if it would make a difference either. Not by itself.
As to the curragh, all I am saying is what is the point of making them? What is the intention? To expose us to some extra tiles and how many times have we bumped into a civ? More than once, that is for sure. If it was not a 30 civ game, then I could see some exploring, but we will not need to explore. Not before we have 3 move armies.
We are not going to be able to build enough towns before getting in hot water to bother. We gain more enemies and lose scouting warriors, that could be doing MP duty.
You are correct we cannot just build units, we have to expand by taking down towns. We cannot do that with out armies in this type of game. So if we do not get leaders quickly we will be overrun. As you said, we are likely to get overrun in most starts.
We need a confluence of things to go our way. Good start location, good rng for sure.
I cannot say for sure if the AI will jump on Lit, but they were nearly done with the AA required techs, at least a few of them were.
The probability is that one or more would have gone to get Lit and if they do, they will build it about 23 turns at worse. Sooner most likely as some one would be forced to switch some other wonder.
Now if only the Mayan's start with Mason and Alpha, rather than Pottery. Anyway I am throwing out my .02 for you guys to shoot down. I am of course not positive of it, so it is just food for thought.
The big problem for this game is the middle ages will bring some nasty units to deal with that cannot be taken down with ease and more difficult defenders. We will soon be looking at pikes instead of spears. Such fun, no?