Hitler's Worst Mistake

[r16]

and cavalry gets far too much mud , ı did actually read somewhere that Guderian lost 70 panzers to Russian cavalry in the retreat from Moscow . On the other hand , the British armour had too much of the cavalry instinct , charging anything they saw . It is really in the handling of troops , use the horses to move around and not to look grand at the moment you are cut down by machine gun fire and cavalry doesn't look that archaic . But of course Budyenny is a guy that opposed the likes of T-34 and his sacking is so justified .

 

[Cutlass]

That's exactly how they saw it. Yamamoto famously admitted that in a war with the US he'd have six months to make his position impenetrable. If he failed to do that within six months, the US would crush Japan. He was right.

Something I never understood. Given that Yamamoto believed that, why was the Pearl attack carried out as only a hit and run? Why not design the attack to invade Oahu and hold it? That would have done much more to hamper the American position in the Pacific than sending a force at nearly the same time against the Philippines. Not to mention the failure to attack the Panama Canal. If you think you only have 6 months and you're going for broke, why go for half measures?

 

[LightSpectra]

It's because of the complications of naval combat. It's not like the Japanese Fleet could've just sailed around Hawaii and then locked down San Francisco Bay and the Panama Canal. There needs to be a successive chain of docks in which to refuel and what not.

 

[ParkCungHee]

Because to do so would have been outrageously impossible in terms of supplies, logistics and actually gettin the men required to take Oahu onto the Island.

 

[Dragonlord]

Something I never understood. Given that Yamamoto believed that, why was the Pearl attack carried out as only a hit and run? Why not design the attack to invade Oahu and hold it? That would have done much more to hamper the American position in the Pacific than sending a force at nearly the same time against the Philippines. Not to mention the failure to attack the Panama Canal. If you think you only have 6 months and you're going for broke, why go for half measures?

I seem to remember reading that option was fiercely discussed among the Japanese leadership - the Army insisted they only had the forces for either the Philippines or Hawaii, not both - and the Philippines were deemed more important. Probably right, too: the US had a massive presence in the Philippines, right on the Japanese doorstep! Leaving them untouched would have been totally stupid.

 

[Masada]

Turtledove did it, that's enough historical reality to satisfy me.

 

[Dragonlord]

Turtledove did it, that's enough historical reality to satisfy me.

Jupp, I read those too. He had the Japs taking Hawaii rather easily, but not being able to hold them against a determined counterattack a year or so (?) later - and it not making all that much difference to the course of the war, otherwise, IIRC. Seemed logical enough to me.

 

[Masada]

I was being sarcastic, he also had the south win the Civil War. Granted, he hasn't strayed into Draka territory, but it's only a hop, skip and a jump to there.

 

[Lord Baal]

Something I never understood. Given that Yamamoto believed that, why was the Pearl attack carried out as only a hit and run? Why not design the attack to invade Oahu and hold it? That would have done much more to hamper the American position in the Pacific than sending a force at nearly the same time against the Philippines. Not to mention the failure to attack the Panama Canal. If you think you only have 6 months and you're going for broke, why go for half measures?

Because even as a raid it stretched Japan's logistical capabilities to their limit. They also had a huge amount of trouble keeping the attack a surprise. In fact, US intelligence at the time had everything they needed to figure out that a Japanese carrier raid on Pearl Harbour was about to take place, but due to a colossal intelligence cock-up of 9/11 proportions they failed to realise it. Add in a ton of troops, troopships and their companion vessels and you end up with a mission that's far harder to keep secret. Not to mention that simply invading Oahu by no means guarantees taking and holding it anyway.

As for attacking the Panama Canal, how do you think the Japanese would have made it that far without being noticed? The only possibility was a submarine raid, and Japan lacked any of the refueling stations necessary to carry out such an attack.

Yamamoto did absolutely everything he could do to defeat the US within six months. Not all the operations were pulled off to his satisfaction - the attack on Pearl Harbour was itself a massive strategic failure, despite its tactical success - but he did a damn fine job of securing Japan's position. The problem was that the war wasn't really winnable in any case, no matter what the brilliant Japanese admiral pulled out of his hat.

 

[Lord Baal]

I was being sarcastic, he also had the south win the Civil War. Granted, he hasn't strayed into Draka territory, but it's only a hop, skip and a jump to there.

The most realistic thing Turtledove has ever written involved lizard people invading the Earth during WWII.

 

[Dragonlord]

The most realistic thing Turtledove has ever written involved lizard people invading the Earth during WWII.

I don't know about realistic, but those (the In the Balance series) were IMO his best, along with The Guns of the South.
His later books are mostly crap - mass-produced, shallow books meant to cash in on his name. I don't know whether to blame him or his publishers ... probably both.

 

[Leifmk]

I don't know about realistic, but those (the In the Balance series) were IMO his best, along with The Guns of the South.
His later books are mostly crap - mass-produced, shallow books meant to cash in on his name. I don't know whether to blame him or his publishers ... probably both.

Yeah, it's pretty sad since he can do much better, but apparently it sells.

 

[Lord Baal]

Yeah, it's pretty sad since he can do much better, but apparently it sells.

It's what I like to call the "Stephen King effect."

 

[Dachs]

And that said, neither TL-191 nor Guns of the South was particularly good. TL-191 was a moderately interesting idea for a one-shot, but his reasoning for the South's survival - and indeed its crushing victory - in the 1880s was terrible. The rest of the series basically was an excuse to engage in more Lost Cause onanism until the end when he went with heavy-handed Nazi/Soviet parallels. All of the parallelism in his books ruins them anyway.

 

[Dragonlord]

And that said, neither TL-191 nor Guns of the South was particularly good. TL-191 was a moderately interesting idea for a one-shot, but his reasoning for the South's survival - and indeed its crushing victory - in the 1880s was terrible. The rest of the series basically was an excuse to engage in more Lost Cause onanism until the end when he went with heavy-handed Nazi/Soviet parallels. All of the parallelism in his books ruins them anyway.

Totally agreed on TL-191, I stopped reading after the first 3 books, but I doubt it got better. Guns of the South was a totally different premise, that was the one with the Afrikaaner time-travellers bringing AK47s back to help the South. Pure SF and obviously not meant as a serious alternate history, but very well written as SF.

 

[Dachs]

Guns of the South wasn't terrible, but I thought the premise was stupid more than anything else. I'm probably biased because I can't stand Lost Causers.

 

[Communisto]

The only thing that guy wrote that's worth reading is World War, everything else is just weird or poorly done and overtly obvious historical transplanting that's almost painful to see through.

 

[vogtmurr]

Something I never understood. Given that Yamamoto believed that, why was the Pearl attack carried out as only a hit and run? Why not design the attack to invade Oahu and hold it? That would have done much more to hamper the American position in the Pacific than sending a force at nearly the same time against the Philippines. Not to mention the failure to attack the Panama Canal. If you think you only have 6 months and you're going for broke, why go for half measures?

That thought has occurred to me as well. Considering they only had 4 carriers when they went after Midway against a prepared enemy. This had to be doable in 1941.

It's because of the complications of naval combat. It's not like the Japanese Fleet could've just sailed around Hawaii and then locked down San Francisco Bay and the Panama Canal. There needs to be a successive chain of docks in which to refuel and what not.

If they had occupied Hawaii it would have enabled them to fight a defensive battle there 6 months later, and even if it was a lost leader, it would have delayed the US counter offensive. Compared to how many lost leaders they left stranded across the Pacific this would at least have achieved a strategic purpose. Not that I think the outcome would have been significantly different, it may have opened up more options.

Because even as a raid it stretched Japan's logistical capabilities to their limit. They also had a huge amount of trouble keeping the attack a surprise. In fact, US intelligence at the time had everything they needed to figure out that a Japanese carrier raid on Pearl Harbour was about to take place, but due to a colossal intelligence cock-up of 9/11 proportions they failed to realise it. Add in a ton of troops, troopships and their companion vessels and you end up with a mission that's far harder to keep secret. Not to mention that simply invading Oahu by no means guarantees taking and holding it anyway.

That may all be true, but I actually think it could have succeeded even if they had done the honorable declaration of war part first. Afterwards with possession of Hawaii their diplomatic stance might have been different than it was after Pearl Harbour. After all invasion convoys approached the Phillipines and Malaya on the same day of infamy.

As for attacking the Panama Canal, how do you think the Japanese would have made it that far without being noticed? The only possibility was a submarine raid, and Japan lacked any of the refueling stations necessary to carry out such an attack.

Well they did already have the I-400 class, seaplane carrying U-cruisers with a range of 30,000 nautical miles, but I admit it was always a long shot.

Yamamoto did absolutely everything he could do to defeat the US within six months. Not all the operations were pulled off to his satisfaction - the attack on Pearl Harbour was itself a massive strategic failure, despite its tactical success - but he did a damn fine job of securing Japan's position. The problem was that the war wasn't really winnable in any case, no matter what the brilliant Japanese admiral pulled out of his hat.

yes- but assuming as they did as it was their choice, this could have changed the complexion of subsequent events. And without the catastrophic loss of Midway, which they allowed the US to provision with an airbase, the decisive turning point may not have come till who knows when ? With the 1st Air Fleet still intact Yamamoto might have had another 6 months.

 

[LightSpectra]

And without the catastrophic loss of Midway, which they allowed the US to provision with an airbase, the decisive turning point may not have come till who knows when ? With the 1st Air Fleet still intact Yamamoto might have had another 6 months.

Japan didn't have the oil to go another six months. Hence why, amusingly not unlike the Germans against France in 1940, they gambled everything on a risky all-in strategy.

Also amusing is that they began to run out of oil just as their war effort was grinding into nothing, which is also not unlike the Germans.

 

[vogtmurr]

Japan didn't have the oil to go another six months. Hence why, amusingly not unlike the Germans against France in 1940, they gambled everything on a risky all-in strategy.

Also amusing is that they began to run out of oil just as their war effort was grinding into nothing, which is also not unlike the Germans.

After the first six months they had secured the East Indies and held it for a long time. They were on the move in New Guinea and everywhere else. Brunei was one of their biggest naval bases. Long term their oil supply was vulnerable for sure, just like Germany.