How many nukes does Russia have, really?

Hygro

soundcloud.com/hygro/
Joined
Dec 1, 2002
Messages
26,720
Location
California
6000 missiles, 6000 plutonium duds.

How many Russian nukes would actually detonate? Word on the street is that they don't maintain their nukes. Obviously 1% is 60 too many, but that number could be effectively 0 if they've really been bluffing.

How few nukes do you think Russia has operational, do you think US intelligence even knows, and how few nukes would they need before you would consider them not sufficiently nuclear-armed to be able to bully freely?
 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n... Russia had,Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

According to this almost 4,500 warheads. About 1600 ballistic missiles or on heavy bombers.
I don't know how many are effective but even 10% would be devastating.
A limited nuclear war in Europe isn't something I'd like to see either.

Short of NATO intervening and moving into Russian territory I can't see them being used.
Unless Russia itself was threatened I don't think the military would allow Putin to do it.
 
The US does know how frequently it needs to replace US nuke triggers so it has some sense of what it takes to keep the bombs viable. The 3 National Labs in NM are a big part of keeping our arsenal functional. We thank all USians for donating their tax dollars to keeping life in NM better than it would be without those weapons! :D
 
Do American Nuclear sites still use 8" floppy disks?
 
Russia always had more, and bigger. The targeting on the US ones was tighter. I think that probably still holds for the moment.
 
6000 missiles, 6000 plutonium duds.

How many Russian nukes would actually detonate? Word on the street is that they don't maintain their nukes. Obviously 1% is 60 too many, but that number could be effectively 0 if they've really been bluffing.

How few nukes do you think Russia has operational, do you think US intelligence even knows, and how few nukes would they need before you would consider them not sufficiently nuclear-armed to be able to bully freely?

The modern average nuke is a lot bigger than Hiroshima.

Each explosion would kill about 500,000 people if dropped on a nice metro area.

So 200 nukes should kill 100 million people in USA.

600 nukes should kill about 85% of the population I'd say since there are only so many cities, but the fires, radiation, and collapse of civilization should get the countryside pretty hard.

Russia has 6000+, so more than enough to nuke everyone that matters in the world and then make the rubble bounce even if half are duds.

As far as I know, the major cities will get nuked 10 times just in case there is good missile defense.
 
Last edited:
Even if most are duds it depends on how many launch.

At the low point on the 90's about 2/3rds were estimated to be duds iirc.

So let's go with that it leaves about ,500 that can hit the USA Europe gets glassed.

NATO has nukes as well though so....
 
On the topic that is the absurdity known as MAD, allow me to recommend the film Dr. Stranglove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
 
The modern average nuke is a lot bigger than Hiroshima.

Each explosion would kill about 500,000 people if dropped on a nice metro area.

So 200 nukes should kill 100 million people in USA.

600 nukes should kill about 85% of the population I'd say since there are only so many cities, but the fires, radiation, and collapse of civilization should get the countryside pretty hard.

Russia has 6000+, so more than enough to nuke everyone that matters in the world and then make the rubble bounce even if half are duds.

As far as I know, the major cities will get nuked 10 times just in case there is good missile defense.

Missile defense? Oh, no son. There was no missile defense when the redundancy in case of first strike/lost war was put in. There are time delays on this ****. 3 months is a pretty decent food stockpile, yes? The nukes are timed to full blanket the rubble again after 3 months as a dead switch to catch survivors. Then 3 months later again. Just in case you had 6. Maybe people move faster these days, maybe they figure launch them in a full volley. Mobilization isn't information, though. That still takes time, it'd probably still work.
 
Missile defense? Oh, no son. There was no missile defense when the redundancy in case of first strike/lost war was put in. There are time delays on this ****. 3 months is a pretty decent food stockpile, yes? The nukes are timed to full blanket the rubble again after 3 months as a dead switch to catch survivors. Then 3 months later again. Just in case you had 6. Maybe people move faster these days, maybe they figure launch them in a full volley. Mobilization isn't information, though. That still takes time, it'd probably still work.

That is really unfair to the survivors. :cry:

Darn submarines.
 
On the topic that is the absurdity known as MAD, allow me to recommend the film Dr. Stranglove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

A really great movie. :D

The Soviets did end up making a bit of a doomsday device.
Thankfully they (eventually) told everyone it exists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand
 
No survivors. That's the promise. Remember?

M.A.D. is an acronym. But only because you don't want to look at the blood in the sausage. :p
 
Enough that you don't want to find out the answer.

The U.S. and Russia did renew the New START Treaty in 2021, which has a limit of 1550 deployed nuclear weapons per side, with a slight loophole that a bomber carrying multiple nukes only counts as one.

Economically, Russia has state reserves of roughly $630 billion. The civilian economy has been growing slowly since around 2014, but military spending has increased, and budget surpluses at the federal level have continued. It's probably safe to assume that Russia can afford to keep 1550 nukes in working condition. Part of the goal of these treaties is to avoid senseless spending on excess nukes in an arms race, but if Russia really wanted to save money by spending less on nukes, they likely would have proposed lowering the mutual limit. No point in letting the Americans have 1550 nukes if they could only afford 800, right?

Of course, that also is 1550 deployed nukes. I'm no expert in arms control, but my reading of it would be that you could have more of them in the shed out back, as long as they weren't deployed. Send 1550 of them off in a first strike or response to a first strike, and if anyone's still around afterwards, they can load up more of them to fire later.

Smart leaders like Kim Jong Un are aware that this works both ways, and that if you actually launch them, there will be return fire. So my interpretation of Putin's message is, "don't try anything stupid like trying to use nukes to intervene in Ukraine." In that he would use them in retaliation if they were used first. Plus a little bit of Nixonian madman theory, making you wonder, "would he really use them first?" But like Kim Jong Un, he surely knows that if he used them first, Russia would become a nuclear wasteland. Even if NATO did send troops in to help Ukraine, he'd have to be a fool to use them. Much better to seek a settlement.

But he wants you to not be too sure about that.
 
What verification exists for these treaties? Treaties only matter insofar as they are verified.
 
What verification exists for these treaties? Treaties only matter insofar as they are verified.

They used to send in people to verify. These days not so sure.

But safe bet is the correct answer is "more than enough".
 
The old answer was 2 additional 3 month blanket-full time delay kills. I think that was the treaty agreement down from 3 additional 3 month blanket-full time delay kills. At a certain point it just gets stupid and we want to shoot men around the planet and the moon to waggle our willies instead of building more death penises.

Insofar as you trust any of the verification. You think the ECM chaffdummies on SLBM MIRVs can't be swapped for chaffwarheads on MIRVs? How well do you think that's actually inspected? Accounting is... well, accounting.
 
How few nukes do you think Russia has operational, do you think US intelligence even knows, and how few nukes would they need before you would consider them not sufficiently nuclear-armed to be able to bully freely?

I don't think Russia knows.
 
In 2018, Colonel General Viktor Yesin [ru], the former chief of Russia's Main Staff of the Strategic Missile Forces, stated that the Perimeter system might become ineffective in the wake of the United States' withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

Oh no, that is Russia-speak for they want to build a more dangerous doomsday system. :undecide:

Nuclear proliferation and automation is going to cause a big problem some day.
China building more than 100 missile silos, expanding nuclear capabilities - The Washington Post
 
Back
Top Bottom