How soon will China be "bigger" than America?

[Dann]

But there are other issues:

- huge ecological damage
- social tensions (it would be really ironic to see socialist revolution in formally socialist country )
- lack of natural resources
- corruption
- tensions with the US, Japan, Taiwan and Korea
- too fast economy
etc.

I think China should slow down a bit, for its own sake.

Indeed. And that's what the government is doing now. New regulations that are dampening the real estate market for instance. Of course some people (especially those directly affected) see this in a negative light and feel that it's the age old syndrome of "government always unhappy to see people getting too rich".

There is another more serious issue that you forgot to mention, and that is the uneven pace of development between the economic powerhouses in the east and along the coast, vs the western regions and inland villages who are being left behind. (And corruption is worst among the poorest regions) This is a disparity that has been noticed now, and hopefully can be adjusted before it becomes a fatal social problem.

 

[Lotus49]

How local are we talking about here? City? Town? Village? Even at these levels money politics come into play. No one can ever hope to win without adequate campaign funds and a supporting machinery. About the only direct democracy I can think of that don't need "lubrication" is family and school elections. In my home country even barangay level (the size of a city block) elections would require the candidates to be somewhat better off financially than their constituents. Sure there's nothing in the rules to prevent that homeless guy under the bridge to run but do you think he'll win?

Unlike national, local elections can actually effect you, and lead to noticable changes in your everyday life... and yes - your vote actually matters. The culture of corruption and bureaucracy at the local, and also State level is MUCH, much less than it is in D.C. At least, that's how it works where I'm from. Not sure about other democracies.

Other than that, all I ask, is when "China is expected to surpass the US in all areas of economy at the earliest in 2020, at the latest in 2050" and you become my whipping master and puppeteer, that you'll at least count my vote - asking NOT to be catastrophically crushed under the boots of the marching 10-trillion-man army... and at least look at the vote, if not actually
'count' it.

I think the only solution is to build my own spaceship. It would be futile to spend my whole retirement running all over the world, from the Chinese. But, you guys will never catch me in space...

 

[Elta]

How local are we talking about here? City? Town? Village? Even at these levels money politics come into play. No one can ever hope to win without adequate campaign funds and a supporting machinery. About the only direct democracy I can think of that don't need "lubrication" is family and school elections. In my home country even barangay level (the size of a city block) elections would require the candidates to be somewhat better off financially than their constituents. Sure there's nothing in the rules to prevent that homeless guy under the bridge to run but do you think he'll win?

In a State like mine (Nevada - 2.2 - 2.5 million people) and in a County-City (well over 99% of the population is all one city really) like mine (85%+ of the States population) You can win a state seat with only a very small amount of votes-money. For example both of the guys runing in my area passed out all kind s of flyers (flyers-pretty cheap, friends to pass them out - political partys) and then they thourgh a bunch of partys (I know one guy who had 4 one at a trampoline park for kids where he registered the kids parents,one for college age kids at a dorm (where you had to register to get in ...lame I know ) then he just did it agian. He will probably do it agian next week.

Bunch of flyers
a dj
renting out a day at sky zone
20 bottles of grey goose etc etc
what 2k maybe?
I could be a state senator ....as a matter of fact I probably will - and I'll bump this thread in about 15 years to let you know how it's going .

 

[Elta]

Indeed. And that's what the government is doing now. New regulations that are dampening the real estate market for instance. Of course some people (especially those directly affected) see this in a negative light and feel that it's the age old syndrome of "government always unhappy to see people getting too rich".

There is another more serious issue that you forgot to mention, and that is the uneven pace of development between the economic powerhouses in the east and along the coast, vs the western regions and inland villages who are being left behind. (And corruption is worst among the poorest regions) This is a disparity that has been noticed now, and hopefully can be adjusted before it becomes a fatal social problem.

Interesting because Dateline* had a program where they interviewed a lot of angry farmers ,they trumped it up like China is going to have a civil war or something. I doubt it but it's good to hear that this is being taken care of.

*A current news investigation show that airs nationaly

 

[Dann]

Unlike national, local elections can actually effect you, and lead to noticable changes in your everyday life... and yes - your vote actually matters. The culture of corruption and bureaucracy at the local, and also State level is MUCH, much less than it is in D.C. At least, that's how it works where I'm from. Not sure about other democracies.

Well the US has a much better situation overall than us in the Philippines. We have been free and voting for 20 years, and yet the situation has remained the same. Opposition always seem more interested in bringing down the incumbent rather than really working to uplift the nation.

As for the aforementioned barangay level yeah the elections are quite honest, but that's because there's not much to gain there. No pork barrel, funds have to be begged/cajoled from businessmen in the area, and most propositions still have to have city hall's approval. This level of elections and politics more often than not becomes a training ground for the younger members of prominent political dynasties instead.

Other than that, all I ask, is when "China is expected to surpass the US in all areas of economy at the earliest in 2020, at the latest in 2050" and you become my whipping master and puppeteer, that you'll at least count my vote - asking NOT to be catastrophically crushed under the boots of the marching 10-trillion-man army... and at least look at the vote, if not actually
'count' it.

I think the only solution is to build my own spaceship. It would be futile to spend my whole retirement running all over the world, from the Chinese. But, you guys will never catch me in space...

Sheesh... getting paranoid there. Why would the Chinese be chasing you?

Your fears are not gonna happen. Even if US influence/economy declines (very unlikely in the first place) it will still be in China's interest to prop her up. A multipolar world with a balance of power is what will be best for China, and not replacing US as king of the hill.

 

[Gr3yL3gion]

U.S. can continue to be king of the hill and defender of freedom if that's what they want to, all China want is to just earn more money and being left in peace.

 

[Captain Planet]

Its quite sad that you dont know what conditions the bulk of the chinese citizens live under.

Its quite sad that you draw such childish conclusions considering you have never visited China nor taken any formal education in the subject area.

You know what Xanikk999, you don't have to prove you're cool by rebelling and jumping on the Right-Wing bandwagon. Usually your posts are more liberal-minded and oriented. I hope you come around.

 

[CurtSibling]

The American Empire is eroding. The peak was reached in the 1990s.

I can see Chinese cultural/economic dominance in the next 20-30 years.

Although, the USA will remain one of the big players for another lifetime.

.

 

[Winner]

The American Empire is eroding. The peak was reached in the 1990s.

I can see Chinese cultural/economic dominance in the next 20-30 years.

Although, the USA will remain one of the big players for another lifetime.

.

Actually, the US power peaked at the end of WW2 - in that time, US generated about a half of world's GDP. They had nuclear monopoly, 12 million men in the armed forces and almost total control over the world. Their power has been eroding since that time.

 

[CurtSibling]

When the Chinese manufacturing ability makes the world depend on them, that is when they use their leverage.

.

 

[batteryacid]

According to newest stats, China surpasses US already this year concerning exported goods (China has a 9.4% fraction on the world trade compared to 8.9% from the US)

 

[Abaddon]

Hmm, any linky to that?

 

[JerichoHill]

thats right, but its going to be about 50 years before their economies converge. IF current trends hold

big if. I wont care, Ill be retired and living on St. Eustatius by then.