Hurricanes, Typhoons & Cyclones, oh my!

"Higher number equals bad" is not a point anyone is likely to argue against.

It's weird that you seem to be trying then. There's no question that a category 4 storm would cause worse damage than a category 2 storm. That said, I'm well aware that the majority of damage/injury/death is done by storm surge and rain.

However, if this thing follows the currently estimated track which has the eye loitering just offshore for about 36 hours slinging rain without any reduction in power, it is going to be a gigantic mess.

There will be reduction in strength as it approaches the coast and makes landfall. It's just that the reduction in strength won't reduce the amount of rain that falls.

I don't remember the details of Hurricane Harvey now, but Florence is being prevented from moving northeast by an unusual "high-pressure ridge" around New England. I don't know if the high-pressure ridge is related to climate change or just a fluke.

I read recently that there is some evidence that climate change is decreasing the average speed of hurricanes. I'm not really sure what the mechanisms are there. I'd have to hunt up the papers.
 
Sandy was moving fast when it hit the coast. It was a major rainmaker just due to shear size though. Even moving fast a storm system that is nine hundred miles across has a significant interval between impact and eye landfall.
 
"Higher number equals bad" is not a point anyone is likely to argue against. However, if this thing follows the currently estimated track which has the eye loitering just offshore for about 36 hours slinging rain without any reduction in power, it is going to be a gigantic mess. Probably a much bigger mess than a fierce of wind but small in size fast moving storm could ever cause.

Strange that I don't recall ever seeing one of these "hit and linger" rain monsters before last year, and now we are looking down the barrel of another one in a second year in a row. If this is the new normal the coasts might be in trouble.

Hurricanes linger pretty often. It's unfortunate that recent ones have done it with the eye so close to the coast.

I agree that having it stall out like this is awful on several levels. The rain in particular is going to be pretty threatening even well inland, and surge can still be significant. I'd still rather see a lingering 2 than a 4. Hurricanes at category 4-5 can straight up remove houses just with the wind alone, removing one of several factors that can screw people over/kill them is good even if others remain (flooding, surge, tornadoes spawning). Maybe the geography will spare them some of the tornadoes.

I don't remember the details of Hurricane Harvey now, but Florence is being prevented from moving northeast by an unusual "high-pressure ridge" around New England. I don't know if the high-pressure ridge is related to climate change or just a fluke. I don't think Hurricane Sandy was one of these lingering "rain monsters", but it did create a huge stormsurge that happened to coincide with a high tide. I haven't looked at the schedule of tides in the Carolinas the next couple of days.

These ridges are common. If we're going to seriously discuss warming themes the more likely outcomes are a longer hurricane season and having storms hitting further north be more common.

Though if ocean currents get impacted by enough polar cap melting you could see different tendencies for who gets hit entirely/other difficult to predict outcomes. Pretty unlikely that the Harvey/Florence situation is a result of climate though, since if you follow hurricane tracks having them slow like this at some point in their existence isn't a newly common thing.
 
There will be reduction in strength as it approaches the coast and makes landfall. It's just that the reduction in strength won't reduce the amount of rain that falls.

As long as the eye is over water it will be hoovering in makeup water to sustain the rainfall longer. If the track moves just a short distance to the west and puts the eye over land before it stalls there will be a lot less accumulated rainfall.
 
Sandy was moving fast when it hit the coast. It was a major rainmaker just due to shear size though. Even moving fast a storm system that is nine hundred miles across has a significant interval between impact and eye landfall.

I'm not sure about the aggregate numbers, but where I lived at the time, Sandy's rain did not cause much flooding. Floyd, which came through in '99 IIRC and was only a tropical storm by the time it reached NJ, caused much more serious flooding. We didn't get significant power outages but for example Rutgers university closed for two days because of flooding on roads around the state. I remember how well how high the Raritan River was, and the two parks in my hometown along the river bank were completely flooded - you could only see the roofs of the playground structures above the water - and it took a few weeks for the water to go back down. Sandy didn't even come close to that - the Raritan overflowed its banks but it just made the parks swampy and puddly, rather than putting them under 10+ feet of water.

Main problem with Sandy was the coastal flooding from the storm surge, and the fact that the winds over such a large area had taken out power for a huge number of people. My parents' block had a pole go down so their house, fourth from the corner, and the other three houses were without power for eleven days. Thanks to the snow that came through shortly after Sandy they had to stay with friends who got power back sooner, and my dad and brothers eventually drove up to Saratoga Springs NY, where my mom was already staying with her mom when the storm hit (purely by coincidence). They stayed up there for more than a week until the house had power again because it was too cold to stay in the house without power.

Fortunately, the house I was living in for school was half a block away from the hospital, so it had its own power. WE had a full week of cancelled classes because of power outages all over the state, and there was something of a carnival atmosphere in town. Liquor stores weren't carding anyone because their computers were all down. Glorious week. Ruined my grades that semester though.

As long as the eye is over water it will be hoovering in makeup water to sustain the rainfall longer. If the track moves just a short distance to the west and puts the eye over land before it stalls there will be a lot less accumulated rainfall.

Yeah, this is true. IIRC most of the inflow happens in the area immediately surrounding the eye.
 
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Hurricanes linger pretty often. It's unfortunate that recent ones have done it with the eye so close to the coast.

I agree that having it stall out like this is awful on several levels. The rain in particular is going to be pretty threatening even well inland, and surge can still be significant. I'd still rather see a lingering 2 than a 4. Hurricanes at category 4-5 can straight up remove houses just with the wind alone, removing one of several factors that can screw people over/kill them is good even if others remain (flooding, surge, tornadoes spawning). Maybe the geography will spare them some of the tornadoes.



These ridges are common. If we're going to seriously discuss warming themes the more likely outcomes are a longer hurricane season and having storms hitting further north be more common.

Though if ocean currents get impacted by enough polar cap melting you could see different tendencies for who gets hit entirely/other difficult to predict outcomes. Pretty unlikely that the Harvey/Florence situation is a result of climate though, since if you follow hurricane tracks having them slow like this at some point in their existence isn't a newly common thing.

I always assumed that the conditions that lead to stalls were somehow disrupted by proximity to land. I know assuming is never clever, but from my somewhat detached observations it did seem like hurricanes pretty consistently accelerated when they approached landfall so I figured nearby land exerted some accelerating force.
 
I always assumed that the conditions that lead to stalls were somehow disrupted by proximity to land. I know assuming is never clever, but from my somewhat detached observations it did seem like hurricanes pretty consistently accelerated when they approached landfall so I figured nearby land exerted some accelerating force.

It's pretty complicated stuff, above what I've learned too. I just live in Florida so I've watched how a lot of them go. But just for reference there are 4 named storms in the Atlantic right now, and they're doing pretty disparate things based on models. Isaac is forecast to pick up speed significantly, across a 12hr period Joyce is barely going to move (looks even slower than Florence offhand), Helene is projected to be moving twice as quickly Monday as it will this weekend.

IIRC 2004 had two hurricanes (Frances and Jeanne) both stall out to a similar extent near land at ~5kt movement speed in one year, though one of them did its turn-stalling near the Caribbean rather than USA. That was the same year as the rapid-intensification of Charley just before hitting FL from the west too, pretty rough year overall in FL.
 
Massachusetts has apparently been hit by a firestorm. Does that fit in this thread?
 
  • The hurricane bound for the Carolinas, Florence, is a Democrat.
  • Hurricanes Irma and Maria, summoned by Trump in 2017 to kill 3000 Puerto Ricans, were both Republican.
  • Mount Kilauea is a fairly down-the-ticket Republican. Hawaiian federal judge strikes Trump's travel ban? Consequences.
  • The holy fire cyclone in purging evil in California is also a Republican.
  • Another hurricane, Harvey, punished Texas last year. That hurricane was a Democrat.



Massachusetts has apparently been hit by a firestorm. Does that fit in this thread?
Anarcho capitalist firestorm.
 
3000 people didn't die in Puerto Rico, just Puerto Ricans.

- Donald Trump, President of the United States
 
For a while it look'd like Hurricane Florence would impact my hometown with near hurricane force winds and category 2 force wind gusts, as well as 10-15" (25-37.5 cm) of rain. Luckily for my family, that isn't what's happening. Instead it's more like 30 mph (50 kph) winds with 40-45 mph (70 kph?) gusts and 4-6" (10-15 cm) of rain. But classes in the Raleigh-Durham area were all canceled on Thursday and Friday. The coastal part of North Carolina is experiencing a lot of flooding however.
 
CBSN was talking about multiple feet of rain down near Wilmington. 8 months of rain in three days.
 
Mangkhut closing in in Hong Kong, which raises Signal 10 warning. :run:

Luzon's east coast got hit with a tidal surge as Mangkhut approached. Then its west coast got hit with a tidal surge as Mangkhut left. :eek2:
 
Florence has made a U-Turn to the right, went through Virginia spawning tornadoes, and is headed for the New York area.

Mangkhut hit west of Hong Kong, blew windows out of high rises, and obliterated coastal villages.

Admittedly, I'm starting to become numb to all this news of overwhelming destruction. :sad:
 
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