HYPOTHETICAL Middle East Scenario

[Verbose]

I don't think that Hamas wants to get back to where it started - to an underground terrorist movement. It has tasted what it feels like to be in power, and they don't want to give that up. In other words, the higher are the stakes, the lesser is the willingness of Hamas to risk its grip on the power in Gaza.

Except for Hamas Gaza is just a small part of it. I don't know if it's because the world's attention has been riveted to Gaza and the Hamas by the recent Israeli campaign, but it's a mistake to associate Hamas too closely with Gaza. Precisely considering their long-term goals and program, Gaza can only be a detail to them.

 

[Tee Kay]

It's unrealistic. Why would Iran sanction a WMD attack against Israel? Iran has very little to gain and a lot to lose if its WMDs were used by its proxies. The Iranian leadership isn't that stupid to not realise that the such an attack would be traced to Iran, exposing Iranian WMD programs instead of concealing it and give the US a really nice excuse to invade. Rocket attacks are one thing, chemical weapons another altogether.

 

[Winner]

It's unrealistic. Why would Iran sanction a WMD attack against Israel? Iran has very little to gain and a lot to lose if its WMDs were used by its proxies. The Iranian leadership isn't that stupid to not realise that the such an attack would be traced to Iran, exposing Iranian WMD programs instead of concealing it and give the US a really nice excuse to invade. Rocket attacks are one thing, chemical weapons another altogether.

Plausible deniability. Iran would refuse any connection to the attack. Weapons, chemicals and radioactive materials can be obtained from many sources.

Iranian strategy would be pretty simple: make the world preoccupied with the situation in Gaza so that Iran gets more time to build nuclear bombs, which its leaders believe would dissuade the US/Israel from attacking. They base this assessment on the North Korean and Iraqi experience.

They used this strategy before and it worked, so there is a precedent.

 

[Arwon]

They're the most significant contributor to it, one way or another

Sources, lad, sources.

If we base it off anecdotal evidence, I can tell you that I haven't found anyone in my general vincinity who has approved of the recent Gaza War. White, brown, and black alike.

Popular sentiment is generally pro-Palestine (apart from the authoritarian types) here and we have f all Muslims.

Ayup. You can add Australia to the list of countries with small Muslim populations where a clear majority is pretty pro-Palestinian. Only 6% of this country is neither Christian nor nonreligious. Certainly the people shouting the loudest about Israeli "atrocities" at the ridiculous SRC meeting I watched the other day were all very very white and one was a very angry Trotskyist Jew.

So, where exactly do you see this sinister Islamic cabal manipulating public opinion? Or are you making baseless assertions rooted in poorly thought out prejudice? Again?

So let's hear it Winner... Are the tiny, mostly despised Muslim minority (3.4% in Sydney, mostly based in a few obscure western suburbs and widely hated and seen as problem gangstas) in Australia the reason the majority of Australians aren't all rah rah rah about Israeli bombing raids? Are all those Belgians and Australians and Irishmen (and Irishwomen) so sympathetic towards the Palestinian cause because of Teh Muzzies pulling their strings in seekrit?

Come on Winner, put up or shut up. It's honestly quite offensive to suggest that people have the sympathies they do because of some sort of manipulation.

 

[Winner]

Ayup. You can add Australia to the list of countries with small Muslim populations where a clear majority is pretty pro-Palestinian. Only 6% of this country is neither Christian nor nonreligious. Certainly the people shouting the loudest about Israeli "atrocities" at the ridiculous SRC meeting I watched the other day were all very very white and one was a very angry Trotskyist Jew.

So, where exactly do you see this sinister Islamic cabal manipulating public opinion? Or are you making baseless assertions rooted in poorly thought out prejudice? Again?

So let's hear it Winner... Are the tiny, mostly despised Muslim minority (3.4% in Sydney, mostly based in a few obscure western suburbs and widely hated and seen as problem gangstas) in Australia the reason the majority of Australians aren't all rah rah rah about Israeli bombing raids? Are all those Belgians and Australians and Irishmen (and Irishwomen) so sympathetic towards the Palestinian cause because of Teh Muzzies pulling their strings in seekrit?

Come on Winner, put up or shut up. It's honestly quite offensive to suggest that people have the sympathies they do because of some sort of manipulation.

All I am saying is that there is a correlation between large Muslim minorities in some Western countries and the intensity and prevalence of anti-Israeli opinions.

France, Britain and other Western European countries do have a large Muslim minorities. Incidentally the governments of these countries are among the most critical of Israel, as are the media and thus the general public. On the other hand, the post-communist countries in Europe where large Muslim minorities don't exist (bohudík!) are generally much more sympathetic to Israel and its viewpoint.

There are many other factors, like the traditional British/French affinity for Arabs (Lawrence of Arabia kind of romantic illusions), misguided humanitarian ideals (Scandinavia) etc. on the W.E. side, and the sense of shared experience with Western betrayal in the Czech case, the presence of Muslims and their influence in the host countries can't be excluded as one of the factors.

 

[Arwon]

It's funny how every reason you give comes back to the Arab ethnicity of the people in question. Because you know, it couldn't possibly be because people have abstract principles that think oppression is a bad thing and see a country doing it to a much weaker group of people.

Nope, it has to be about their ethnicity. Why does your mind jump straight to that? I think most people who aren't directly involved see it in terms of who has the planes and tanks and money and checkpoints, and who has the bombs and rock-throwing kids and suicide vests, and then place their sympathies accordingly (on one side or the other) rather than in ethnic terms.

 

[RedRalph]

Well then Winner how do you also explain the anti-Islam feeling in western Europe? You cant have it both ways... you explain anti-Israeli sentiment by saying its because theres a large muslim pop in England and France, yet both of these countries have had conflict between Mulims and non-muslims in recent years. Irish people are in the main disgusted by Israeli action; and we have a tiny Muslim population. there were anti-Israel protests in tiny towns around Ireland where most of the local population would have never even seen a Muslim. Its got nothing to do with public opinion being manipulated by immigrants

 

[RedRalph]

Methinks Winner has been hoisted by his own petard, which, irnoically, was a thread about Hamas being hoisted by their own petard

 

[holy king]

the important thing is that someone got hoisted by his own petard.

 

[Winner]

It's funny how every reason you give comes back to the Arab ethnicity of the people in question. Because you know, it couldn't possibly be because people have abstract principles that think oppression is a bad thing and see a country doing it to a much weaker group of people.

Nope, it has to be about their ethnicity. Why does your mind jump straight to that? I think most people who aren't directly involved see it in terms of who has the planes and tanks and money and checkpoints, and who has the bombs and rock-throwing kids and suicide vests, and then place their sympathies accordingly (on one side or the other) rather than in ethnic terms.

It's funny how you keep misinterpreting one post after another just to avoid answering a simple question - why are the countries with large Muslim minorities on average more anti-Israeli oriented than the countries without them? We watch the same TV coverage, we have the same access to information, but in average 2/3 of Czechs support Israel, while only 1/3 of Danes share this position (data from a recent poll, I don't have a link so don't ask for it and use google).

 

[Arwon]

And what accounts for the different positions of Canadians, New Zealanders, Brits, Irish, Australians and Americans? These are peoples far more similar than Czechs and Danes are, and they vary just as much.

If there's a correlation, it's weak and cherry-picked. Correlation ain't causation and you just can't claim that public opinion is determined by whether Muslims constitute 1%, 2%, 6% or 9% of a population. That's reductionist piffle and it's utterly absurd. Does ethnicity enter into people's views of Tibet-China, Chechnya-Russia, Sri Lanka-Tamil, Indonesia-West Papua? Truth is most people, at least those who aren't obsessed to the point of paranoid delusion about Islam, just don't care about ethnicity in this situation. As far as most of us are concerned, Israelis and Arabs are both mobs of crazy foreigners bashing the hell out of each other.

Oh and also, what RRW said. How can countries be so rife with anti-Muslim sentiment and yet remain beholden to such a hated minority in their opinions about this conflict?

 

[Winner]

And what accounts for the different positions of Canadians, New Zealanders, Brits, Irish, Australians and Americans? These are peoples far more similar than Czechs and Danes are, and they vary just as much.

If there's a correlation, it's weak and cherry-picked. Correlation ain't causation and you just can't claim that public opinion is determined by whether Muslims constitute 1%, 2%, 6% or 9% of a population. That's reductionist piffle and it's utterly absurd.

And again, Christ this is annoying I say it plays a role, you keep telling me that I think it's the sole factor. Any more Strawmans?

The presence of Muslim immigrants in Western Europe has contributed to the rise of political correctness in the politics and media which in turn influence the public opinion in these countries. There are other factors as too, as I said many times before.

As the prosecution of people criticizing Islam (discussed in the other thread) shows, the societies in Western Europe are much less prepared to do anything that could offend the relatively small, but vocal Muslim minorities. Supporting Israel would surely be heavily criticized by the Muslims, ergo the society avoids that.

So, this is a rough outline of how the presence of a politically significant Muslim minorities affect the public opinion. You can downplay this, and you most certainly will, but you can hardly dismiss it entirely.

 

[RedRalph]

Supporting Israel would surely be heavily criticized by the Muslims, ergo the society avoids that.

Yet repeatedly elects governments that do...


Winner drop it. Stop telling us what the west is and isnt, you dont have a clue. Every time you tell people what western values are, or how the west should view things, or what it means to be western etc etc you make a fool of yourself because you arent western. your views on muslims, gypsies and the EU are far to the right of most westerners (and I'm willing to bet most easterners), and your idea of democracy dosent correspond with anyone I have ever met's. you are making a fool of yourself. you started a thread which was obviously a bloodthirsty fantasy and got panned for it. Just leave it.

 

[Arwon]

So what's the mechanism you're proposing operates here here? Average white dude in the street of country X watches the news about a complex and confusing conflict half a world away, forms an opinion, goes outside and sees that they've opened a new kebab shop, so he changes his mind now that there's Muslims around? Is it because he's scared they might hate him? Does he want to be more like them?

Why would anyone form their opinion about a conflict half a world away based on which migrant groups live in their country? The notion is just silly, even if you're now retreating back from your previous reductive determinism to just claiming it might affect a few people somehow.

 

[Winner]

So what's the mechanism you're proposing operates here here? Average white dude in the street of country X watches the news about a complex and confusing conflict half a world away, forms an opinion, goes outside and sees that they've opened a new kebab shop, so he changes his mind now that there's Muslims around? Is it because he's scared they might hate him? Does he want to be more like them?

Why would anyone form their opinion about a conflict half a world away based on which migrant groups live in their country? The notion is just silly, even if you're now retreating back from your previous reductive determinism to just claiming it might affect a few people somehow.

I just described it

 

[Arwon]

Ah, so we're back to you calling people who disagree with you blinded by political correctness. That's stupid.

You just can't accept that people in other countries legitimately sympathise with the Palestinian situation and so you invoke all these bogeymen that are leading them astray and MAKING THEM think that way. If it's not a secret cabal of Muslims manipulating people, it's the "political correctness" thought police, or politicians seeking votes, or Johnny the Kebab shop customer wanting to be friends with Ahmed.

Here's a thought: Maybe people just have different opinions to you because they do, and that's the way it is! This is an issue that basically distributes left-right in the West. It's got nothing to do with whether a country has a 2% or 6% minority from Muslim countries and everything to do with relative levels of sympathy with oppression and security concerns.

Just tell me one thing: Why is the population of the United States more pro-Israel than the population of Canada when it almost certainly has a larger Islamic population? Why is the population and government of Australia more pro-Israel than New Zealand when it has a larger Islamic population? You couldn't get more comparable countries than this. So what's the key variable?

Also, this corker?

Supporting Israel would surely be heavily criticized by the Muslims, ergo the society avoids that.

So why do politicians bash Muslims and gain votes for that, then? If you're contending that there's more votes in supporting Muslim ideas than opposing them in Western countries right now, that just demonstrates how utterly out of touch or ignorant you are of such matters.

 

[Shekwan]

There may be proof in Winner's hypothesis. I had a kebab for lunch and on my way home I saw a mosque. I blacked out and woke up feeling like crap smelling of gasoline with a half torched Israeli flag. I feel like my political beliefs have been violated by these damn immigrants.

 

[jessiecat]

There may be proof in Winner's hypothesis. I had a kebab for lunch and on my way home I saw a mosque. I blacked out and woke up feeling like crap smelling of gasoline with a half torched Israeli flag. I feel like my political beliefs have been violated by these damn immigrants.

How many pints did you have at lunch?

 

[Shekwan]

How many pints did you have at lunch?

Ten pints, and a can of kestrel in the shower. However thats a distinctly western pastime - so I really think it was the kebab and the pure anti-semitic sentiment emanating from the local mosque that provoked my outburst.

 

[HannibalBarka]

All I am saying is that there is a correlation between large Muslim minorities in some Western countries and the intensity and prevalence of anti-Israeli opinions.

Western european countries compared to Eastern ones have a larger minority of about any ethnic group: we have more muslims, more vietnameze, more chineze, more tibetain. We also have more jews if we want to relate to the religions of the ME. France not only has the biggest muslim population in Europe but also the biggest jewish population. So your correlation works also if you apply it to the buddist minority or even the jewish

France, Britain and other Western European countries do have a large Muslim minorities. Incidentally the governments of these countries are among the most critical of Israel, as are the media and thus the general public. On the other hand, the post-communist countries in Europe where large Muslim minorities don't exist (bohudík!) are generally much more sympathetic to Israel and its viewpoint.

What the hell is bohudík! ? let me guess: not yet? thank God?

And again France, Britain and other Western European countries do have a large Jewish minorities: France alone has above half a million. So if we follow your logic, the more jews a country has the less support its government shows toward Israel !!!

There are many other factors, like the traditional British/French affinity for Arabs (Lawrence of Arabia kind of romantic illusions),

Yeah right, tell that to Le Pen. Every pulic poll done in France shows that the minority that the french "fears" more is the arab one, don't talk about what do not know, OK?

misguided humanitarian ideals (Scandinavia) etc.

the blooody Swede, how dare they send humanutarian aid to people in need I knew that those nordist have lost their well-guided humanitarian ideals since the Vikings

on the W.E. side, and the sense of shared experience with Western betrayal in the Czech case, the presence of Muslims and their influence in the host countries can't be excluded as one of the factors.

Now, really the reason are the following:

1. Eastern Europe tend to side with the US adminsitration and against Russia when it come to extra european affairs due to recent history . On the Israel/Palestine conflict they side with the US thus they are more pro-Israel.
2. Eastern Europe tend to have more anti islam feelings because of Turkey, because of the recent Yoguslavia conflict etc.
3. Eastern European tend to be more tolerant with human right abuses, war crimes and brutal methods in general. You just can't erase 50 years of KGB, Securitate and other "sweet" communist methods in just 2 decades.