HYPOTHETICAL Middle East Scenario

Winner can defend himself for that. Your stereotyping right now btw, one man's thought's does not mean an entire group of nations thinks that way.

Can I ask you for something? When you reply to this guy in this thread, put the quoted parts of his post in spoiler tags. He's in my ignore list (you can see why) and I don't want to accidentally read some of his BS trolling when reading your posts.

Thank you :)
 
They're (Muslims) the most significant contributor to it(anti-Israel sentiment), one way or another :p

Popular sentiment is generally pro-Palestine (apart from the authoritarian types) here and we have f all Muslims.
 
Poles everywhere have more sympathy for Germany in WWII because the Germans themselves were caught in the middle of things. You think the average citizen could've done anything to stop Hitler? No, and if they spoke out, they'd be killed. Ounce war started they were drafted most likely against there will. I don't know why people like you don't see that.

except for you know, all the Germans that volunteered for the SS and were cheering for Hitler in the streets.
 
They did what every person does, gets . .. .. .. .. .y when the economy gets bad.
 
Two things I forgot to mention, that not only change the feasibility of Winner's scenario but also make the outcome much clearer.

First off, a terrorist group such as Hamas would probably never bother to use a radiological weapon, because it's not body count that Hamas is after--it's shock value. Katyusha rockets hardly ever hit anything and almost never kill anybody; the reason they're effective is they go KABOOM when they hit something.

And second: while Israel's most violent reprisals have, in the past, provoked a great deal of protest from other nations, they have never resulted in action from other nations. You never see the UN marshalling a peacekeeping force to smack down the Israelis and restore peace.....probably because the UN would get its ass kicked.


Conclusions: an attack with bombs laced with radioactive material is worthless to Hamas, and the end result would be Israel getting away with its dissolution of Gaza, practically scot-free.
 
Ivan the terrible?
Not even close. If you consider Ivan IV on a par with Hitler, you might as well add Louis XI (France) to the list, and probably Cromwell too. A better counter might be Stalin.
 
Stalin was probably a tad worse than Hitler.
Regardless of which was better or worse, it was only by a small degree, and both were scumbags. In essence, the Russians had a Hitler. And the Serbs had Milosevic.
 
First off, a terrorist group such as Hamas would probably never bother to use a radiological weapon, because it's not body count that Hamas is after--it's shock value. Katyusha rockets hardly ever hit anything and almost never kill anybody; the reason they're effective is they go KABOOM when they hit something.

What's more shocking than irradiating a large parts of the city, scaring tens of thousands of people? Terrorism, as the name implies, is about using terror to force your enemy to make concessions.

The only thing that could prevent Hamas from using it would be the fear of Israeli crackdown - I mentioned that in my scenario.

And second: while Israel's most violent reprisals have, in the past, provoked a great deal of protest from other nations, they have never resulted in action from other nations. You never see the UN marshalling a peacekeeping force to smack down the Israelis and restore peace.....probably because the UN would get its ass kicked.

Well, most of the loud critics of Israel are just as hypocritical as the Arabs who claim to care about Palestinians, while they only use them as a tool to keep the West under constant pressure.

Do you really think that the British or French governments give a damn about Palestinians? No. They have to pretend so because the biased media and the resultant ignorant anti-Israeli public opinion supplemented with hundreds of thousands of Arab immigrants would give them hell.

Anyway, Israel doesn't need to listen to the EU, because the EU discredited itself by its one-sided policies. We're the biggest provider of aid to the Palies, but our lame leaders have been utterly incapable of using this as a leverage in negotiations with the Palestinians.

You know, negotiations like "if you don't stop firing missiles, we won't send you a single €uro. Yoiur choice."


Conclusions: an attack with bombs laced with radioactive material is worthless to Hamas, and the end result would be Israel getting away with its dissolution of Gaza, practically scot-free.

Media would play an important role. Since the politicians are cowards in nature, they'd adjust their reaction to the strength of the public opinion on this matter.

I think the initial shock resulting from use of chemical and radiological weapons by Hamas would turn most of people in Europe/US/developed world against Hamas and Palestinians in general.

This would of course change during the Israeli campaign, but it would probably leave Israel with solid enough moral high ground to carry out such a huge operation.

Anyway, the Israel-bashers would then, in few weeks after the end of the operation when the memory of the WMD attack on Tel Aviv would sufficiently fade, renew their anti-Israeli campaign and win the public opinion back with pictures of homeless Palie kids and other crap like that.
 
The only thing that could prevent Hamas from using it would be the fear of Israeli crackdown - I mentioned that in my scenario.
Because Hamas places little value on their own lives and those of the civilians. They are quite willing to die for the cause, and no hesitation to draw as many into it as possible.

What would make them fear Israeli Crackdown?
 
Because Hamas places little value on their own lives and those of the civilians. They are quite willing to die for the cause, and no hesitation to draw as many into it as possible.

What would make them fear Israeli Crackdown?
Clearly the memory of their recent staggering defeat. :rolleyes:
 
Because Hamas places little value on their own lives and those of the civilians. They are quite willing to die for the cause, and no hesitation to draw as many into it as possible.

What would make them fear Israeli Crackdown?

Like all such movements they want, first of all, to remain in power. It's addictive.
 
Poles everywhere have more sympathy for Germany in WWII because the Germans themselves were caught in the middle of things. You think the average citizen could've done anything to stop Hitler? No, and if they spoke out, they'd be killed. Ounce war started they were drafted most likely against there will. I don't know why people like you don't see that.

You think the average russian-georgian-ukrainian citizen could've done anything to stop Stalin? No, and if they spoke out, they'd be killed. Ounce war started they were drafted most likely against there will. I don't know why people like you don't see that. ;)

1. Explain. It was one man's idea's that forced the extermination of groups of people. Of course there were people in his party that helped him, but otherwise it was Hitler's idea's that caused the Damage.

Hitler did not sprung out of nowhere, Germany as a State and as people were all responsible for the Shoa. Blaming all the Holocaust on one person ie Hitler is the first step towards negationism.

2. hmm? again what do we have to do with it? It was the Nazi controlled Germany.

see above. The nazi were not ET coming form Vega.

3. Forced by Russians. We didn't really have much of a say in it.

Oh man, talk about blaming it always on the Russians.

Pre-Potsdam deportations (May - July 1945)

In 1945, the former eastern territories of Germany (most of Silesia, Pomerania, East Brandenburg, and East-Prussia) were occupied by Polish and Russian military forces. Early expulsions in Poland were undertaken by the Polish Communist military authorities[22] even before the Potsdam Conference ("wild expulsions"). To ensure territorial incorporation into Poland, Polish Communists ordered that Germans were to be expelled: "We must expel all the Germans because countries are built on national lines and not on multinational ones," a citation from the Plenum of the Central Committee of the Polish Workers Party, May 20-21, 1945.[23] Germans were defined as either Reichsdeutsche, people enlisted in 1st or 2nd Volksliste groups, and those of the 3rd group, who held German citizenship.

The early expulsions were often more brutal than the organized population transfer that came afterwards. Sources suggest that the expulsions in Poland were not as brutal as those in Czechoslovakia.[24] However, one source, Russians in Germany states that, according to a Soviet soldier: "Polish soldiers relate to German women as to free booty".[25]
 
Like all such movements they want, first of all, to remain in power. It's addictive.
Not when you also rely on a supportive civilian popuation surrounding you. Once it becomes about staying in power opposed to your own population it becomes about repression of it. If that becomes the choice, then the nature of a movement like Hamas changes radically.

And it's when such prospects loom that you goad your powerful common enemy to attack you. And loo and behold, today Hamas is up in the polls again, as opposed to before the Israeli attack, when they had to face an increasingly disgruntled Gaza population asking pointed questions. Now they can credibly blame it all on Israel, again.

And the Hamas certainly doesn't fear an Israeli re-occupation. It's the ideal scenario mixing continued popular support and political irresponsibility, as it allows the Hamas to re-tool itself to become an urban guerilla in a situation where nice Israeli, military, targets will be moving around inside Gaza, within easy reach.

This is patently why Israel despite everything doesn't seriously contemplate re-occupation. Too dangerous, playing too much into the hands of Hamas. They'd just love to claim to be just like the French resistance, the Italian WWII partisans, the Polish Home Army etc. So far Israel hasn't been accomodating them.
 
Oh man, talk about blaming it always on the Russians.

Pre-Potsdam deportations (May - July 1945)

In 1945, the former eastern territories of Germany (most of Silesia, Pomerania, East Brandenburg, and East-Prussia) were occupied by Polish and Russian military forces. Early expulsions in Poland were undertaken by the Polish Communist military authorities[22] even before the Potsdam Conference ("wild expulsions"). To ensure territorial incorporation into Poland, Polish Communists ordered that Germans were to be expelled: "We must expel all the Germans because countries are built on national lines and not on multinational ones," a citation from the Plenum of the Central Committee of the Polish Workers Party, May 20-21, 1945.[23] Germans were defined as either Reichsdeutsche, people enlisted in 1st or 2nd Volksliste groups, and those of the 3rd group, who held German citizenship.

The early expulsions were often more brutal than the organized population transfer that came afterwards. Sources suggest that the expulsions in Poland were not as brutal as those in Czechoslovakia.[24] However, one source, Russians in Germany states that, according to a Soviet soldier: "Polish soldiers relate to German women as to free booty".[25]
But he's doing it because these Polish forces mentioned in clear-text means "Polish military formations outfitted and trained by the Soviet army, under the control of Moscow's political puppets".

Stalin unilaterally broke off all contact with the Polish government-in-exile in London already in 1943. Stalin didn't just claim to have been unable to support the Polish Home Army's 1944 uprising, as it was liquidated by the German occupiers, he actively prohibited the British from trying to bring in support through Soviet airfields. The Soviet Union simply did not recognise any political power in Poland except the Communist one it had itself imposed.

Nothing moved or acted in Soviet occupied Poland and Germany in 1945 except at the say-so of Stalin.
 
Not when you also rely on a supportive civilian popuation surrounding you. Once it becomes about staying in power opposed to your own population it becomes about repression of it. If that becomes the choice, then the nature of a movement like Hamas changes radically.

And it's when such prospects loom that you goad your powerful common enemy to attack you. And loo and behold, today Hamas is up in the polls again, as opposed to before the Israeli attack, when they had to face an increasingly disgruntled Gaza population asking pointed questions. Now they can credibly blame it all on Israel, again.

And the Hamas certainly doesn't fear an Israeli re-occupation. It's the ideal scenario mixing continued popular support and political irresponsibility, as it allows the Hamas to re-tool itself to become an urban guerilla in a situation where nice Israeli, military, targets will be moving around inside Gaza, within easy reach.

This is patently why Israel despite everything doesn't seriously contemplate re-occupation. Too dangerous, playing too much into the hands of Hamas. They'd just love to claim to be just like the French resistance, the Italian WWII partisans, the Polish Home Army etc. So far Israel hasn't been accomodating them.

Hamas keeps attacking Israel, because its leaders firmly believe that Israel won't attempt to topple Hamas government in Gaza. So far they've been right in this assessment.

Using WMDs is quite different. I believe that many Hamas leaders would fear that by using this they would cross the line and Israel would retaliate in full force, aiming to eliminate them all.

I don't think that Hamas wants to get back to where it started - to an underground terrorist movement. It has tasted what it feels like to be in power, and they don't want to give that up. In other words, the higher are the stakes, the lesser is the willingness of Hamas to risk its grip on the power in Gaza.

In my scenario, Iran forces Hamas to use WMDs by threats. Iran hopes that the massive reprisals against Gaza will divert attention from its nuclear programme. They've used this strategy before, so it isn't entirely unrealistic.
 
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