India & Pakistan: Another War?

[Smellincoffee]

Two weeks ago a terrorist attack in India killed 26 people. Indian officials subsequently struck at sites within Pakistan claiming they were terror camps, and things appear to have slowly racheted up since then, with shelling on both sides and claims that jets have been shot down. India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers, and have been since 1999.

I used to keep up with things with Pakistan during the terror-war, but since DC vacated Afghanistan, it hasn't been on my radar. Do we have any members who've been paying more attention and can make meaningful guesses at why things are escalating the way we are? I know Modi's Hindu Nationalism is part of the puzzle.

 

[Samson]

A crucial aspect of this conflict, if not the prime cause, is the conflict over water. Climate change has been causing water shortages in the region, and Indian hydropower projects have been seen as threats for years.

The day after the gunmen attacked Pahalgam India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, under which disputes have been handled since 1960. On the same day as the rocket attacks on Pakistan Modi announced that he will also stop India’s water from flowing across international borders.

Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri has said New Delhi will not reverse its decision on the IWT until Islamabad ‘credibly’ ends alleged cross border militancy. Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif responded that any move to block or divert water ‘will be considered an act of war.’

Does India has the power to divert more water than Pakistan can afford to lose? I suspect so, and I do not see a happy way out of the problem.

 

[Civinator]

Some interesting information about the used weapons in the air attack by India and the defense by Pakistan in Operation Sindoor:

Operation Sindoor: Indian Air Strikes and Pakistani Air Defenses

Assessment of force employment, platform vulnerability, and technological shifts

missilematters.substack.com

This post is reposted in this thread, where it is fitting better than in the old thread. It is a repost, because when removed from the old thread to this thread this post would have become the leading post of this thread cause of its older date.

 

[Smellincoffee]

Some good news:

Technical Difficulties

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-pakistan-agree-to-full-and-immediate-ceasefire-announces-donald-trump-9994840/

Evidently a ceasefire is in the works.

Soon after, the government announced in a press briefing that India and Pakistan have agreed to stop firing and military action from 5 pm today. India has affirmed the talks were worked out “directly between the two countries”.

“DGMO (Director General of Military Operations) of Pakistan called up DGMO (of India) at 3.35 pm. They agreed that both sides will stop all firing and military action from land, air and sea from 5 pm onwards,” Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said, adding that the DGMOs will talk again at noon on May 12.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also posted on X that “India and Pakistan have today worked out an understanding on stoppage of firing and military action.”

 

[thetrooper]

And of course it did not last for very long.

 

[Plains-Cow]

NUCLEAR GANDHI MOMENT????

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