Iran; 10 nukes; what changes?

[IAM]

What would Iran do if they acquired 10 nukes?

The Iranian leadership, like all other leaders, wants to maitain power. A nuke strike on Israel the US or just about anyone else would be national suicide therefore I think they would likely use them only if attacked.

The idea that they would give them to terrorist seems unlikely because:
1- the weapons could be traced back to them and they would be held responsible.
2- any nuke detonation in israel or US would lead to war
3- terrorist had a gargantuan opportunity when the soviet Union split to acquire nukes, if it didn't happen then why would it now?

But what would they do? In my opinion:
1- use them if invaded
2- use them if other nations tried to destroy them
3- demand disolving trade embargoes
4- demand international withdrawal from Iraq and Afganistan

So bottom line Iran with nukes just means one less kid that can be bullied in the middle-east.

 

[JollyRoger]

It's hard to tell if they would abide by the world standard in the use of such weapons or get tempted into the American standard.

 

[IAM]

It's hard to tell if they would abide by the world standard in the use of such weapons or get tempted into the American standard.

you mean the American standard of being the only country on earth to have used nukes against civilian populations?

 

[Hehehe]

The idea that they would give them to terrorist seems unlikely because:

No-one is going to give terrorists nukes, as there is no guarantee terrorists will not turn on them (plus all the other ways it might go wrong)

So bottom line Iran with nukes just means one less kid that can be bullied in the middle-east.

And that is exactly the problem. If Iran can't be bullied, they might get control of the ME oil supply, which in turn would mean that they would be in a position to bully us. In the end, power is what this all comes down to.

 

[dirtyparrot]

I don't think that much would really change. I figure they would probably use them if they got invaded, but then again so would almost any nuclear power. Other than that, I don't see them using nukes. I don't really see how Iran is much worse than North Korea and we all know the reasons that nobody tried launching some sort of pre-emptive action on them.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=322288&highlight=North+korea+nukes

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=372780&highlight=North+korea+nukes

 

[Silurian]

Only 1 and 2.

The main problem with Iran getting nuclear weapons is that Israel could attack Iran with nuclear weapons. Then nearly everyone will want nuclear weapons.

 

[warpus]

The only reason they're getting nukes is that they're SURROUNDED by enemies. There are American bases virtually in every single direction all around their border - then there's Israel and a bunch of Sunni countries all around too.

Without nukes they are vulnerable to an attack - and the west continues to beat its war drums, so it's not surprising that they're itching to get some nukes. Wouldn't you?

 

[Antilogic]

you mean the American standard of being the only country on earth to have used nukes against civilian populations?

Yeah, it was a fairly new weapon at the time and the long-term radiation effects were not quantified (nor even known).

As much of an opponent I am of nuclear proliferation, the facts are facts. Everywhere else where rival nations have acquired nukes, it has resulted in those rival nations either limiting themselves to small-scale proxy wars (USA v. USSR) or there has not been conventional warfare at all (India v. Pakistan, N. Korea v. South Korea). Sounds more like a deterrent than anything else. A scary deterrent and potentially catastrophic if some nihilist or terrorist gets a hold of them, but a deterrent nonetheless.

EDIT: Near-cross-post with Warpus:

Without nukes they are vulnerable to an attack - and the west continues to beat its war drums, so it's not surprising that they're itching to get some nukes. Wouldn't you?

Exactly. Iran is often painted as the nation of evil anti-American masterminds, but as it turns out they have a more reasonable motive for their action.

 

[Ajidica]

If Iran gets ten nukes, all I forsee is a slightly more assertive foreign policy in the Gulf.

 

[History_Buff]

What would Iran do if they acquired 10 nukes?

The Iranian leadership, like all other leaders, wants to maitain power. A nuke strike on Israel the US or just about anyone else would be national suicide therefore I think they would likely use them only if attacked.

The idea that they would give them to terrorist seems unlikely because...

Indeed.

Also, I'd say we face a more credible threat of nuclear terrorism from Pakistan now than we ever would from Iran.

 

[Benefactor]

If Iran has 10 nukes, then 10 more nukes exist. I am sure very few people are in favour of nuclear proliferation.

 

[IAM]

I'm also wondering about the chances of a nuke strike on israel by any muslim power. Afterall muslims have as many holy sites in cities like jerusalem as christianity. Nuking israel, even assuming they want to kill all jews, would iradiate some much territory in such a small country.

 

[Leoreth]

If Iran has 10 nukes, then 10 more nukes exist. I am sure very few people are in favour of nuclear proliferation.

Simply decomission ten American nukes to balance the books, then. I've heard there are quite a lot of them.

 

[JollyRoger]

If Iran has 10 nukes, then 10 more nukes exist. I am sure very few people are in favour of nuclear proliferation.

Give them 10 Israeli and/or American nukes, destroy 10 Israeli and/or American nukes, and then everybody in favor of reducing the number of nukes will be happy.

 

[emzie]

I'm worried about the precedents being set.

Libya? Decommissions WMDs program. Gets bombed by NATO.
Syria? Keeps massive stockpiles of chemical weapons. NATO scared to do anything.

Why should Iran give up their WMD program?

 

[GenjiKhan]

Iran doesn't need nukes to avoid being in war with other nations . Instead,they could threat to mine literally every corner of Persian Gulf,which would cause a huge economic breakdown . And if mines aren't so effective,they could create a dirty bomb that would just spread radiation to Persian gulf as well . Obviously,these actions would only be made if there's a war against Iran .

 

[red_elk]

What would Iran do if they acquired 10 nukes?

The same what North Korea did.
Perform nuclear test and show middle finger to liberators and democratizators.

 

[Benefactor]

Simply decomission ten American nukes to balance the books, then. I've heard there are quite a lot of them.

Give them 10 Israeli and/or American nukes, destroy 10 Israeli and/or American nukes, and then everybody in favor of reducing the number of nukes will be happy.

How about America destroys 10 (or more) of their nukes, and Iran doesn't make any. Now everyone is even happier right?

 

[JohnRM]

What would Iran do if they acquired 10 nukes?

The Iranian leadership, like all other leaders, wants to maitain power. A nuke strike on Israel the US or just about anyone else would be national suicide therefore I think they would likely use them only if attacked.

The idea that they would give them to terrorist seems unlikely because:
1- the weapons could be traced back to them and they would be held responsible.
2- any nuke detonation in israel or US would lead to war
3- terrorist had a gargantuan opportunity when the soviet Union split to acquire nukes, if it didn't happen then why would it now?

But what would they do? In my opinion:
1- use them if invaded
2- use them if other nations tried to destroy them
3- demand disolving trade embargoes
4- demand international withdrawal from Iraq and Afganistan

So bottom line Iran with nukes just means one less kid that can be bullied in the middle-east.

TIMELINE
The Nuclear Non-proliferation Pact is blatantly broken by Iran. They have 10 nukes.

Saudi Arabia begins work on their nuclear program. They withdraw from the NPT.

Iraq announces a withdrawal from the NPT and begins work on nukes.

Syria and Egypt follow after that.

Israel quietly begins advancing its nuclear stockpile and suspends all talks with regard to the occupied territories.

Turkey withdraws from the NPT and begins research.

Greece withdraws from the NPT and begins research.

The NPT is effectively abandoned.

Civil disorder erupts in the new nuclear nation of Blahblahblahistan and nuclear weapons goes missing.

On September 11th, 2021, NYC, Washington, D.C., London, Moscow, and Tel-Aviv disappear under a nuclear mushroom cloud. Muslim radicals are blamed.

A fanatical right-wing President, backed by a stunned and fearful population, orders nuclear strikes on Mecca and Medina, as well as conventional strikes across the entire Muslim world. Israel launches its nuclear missile forces at its enemies.

Islamic nuclear powers retaliate with a nuclear strike of their own.

Meanwhile, gasoline costs about $1,000 dollars a gallon, if you can get it at all, and people think of the economy as that thing that used to allow us to live like kings, way back in the day.

 

[JollyRoger]

How about America destroys 10 (or more) of their nukes, and Iran doesn't make any. Now everyone is even happier right?

Creative destruction? We would have to contract it out to Bain.