Iran is unraveling
- Thread starter Ecofarm
- Start date
aelf
Ashen One
You forgot the Revolutionary Guards.
But there's the rub. Retaining control of security forces means they have to believe in your government. But that belief can be undermined by ordering the forces to attack the very people they had always thought they were supposed to protect. Sure, you can call the protestors pawns of Israel, and that might be believed when the protestors are a few dozen, but that line doesn't work so well when they're tens of thousands. Only in the halls of U.S. Congress does Israel have that many lobbyists
The loyalty of security forces is a very subtle, nonlinear, tipping-point-y thing. It can look rock solid until it suddenly isn't. I find it extremely hard to believe that any of us outsiders can reliably predict it. Only after the green revolution fails or succeeds, could those with intimate knowledge of it explain why - and even then, the explanation probably won't be indisputable.
I think it depends on the profile of the security forces. If they have a hand in the power pie, you can be pretty sure that they will crack down on the protesters as brutally as necessary. I think that might be the case in Iran given the delicate balance of power that rules the country. The Ayatollah and the clerics aren't the undisputed leaders that they are always made out to be.
Agarwaen
King
If these protesters were to gain the power, what exactly would they change? Are they against the Islamic republic, as Ahmadnejad claims, or are they just looking for some reforms? Are they against the theocracy?
Security forces aren't always structured to protect the citizenry, and certainly not the Revolutionary Guard; generally, if the security forces in question are compensated in some fashion, as aelf said, they are usually willing to ignore any ideological or personal reasons to oppose the regime in question. Combined with relatively simple measures, such as not staffing the Tehran garrison with Tehran natives (something the Tsarists failed to do in Petrograd in 1917, silly them), and so forth, it's an issue that is relatively easy to avoid, for those inclined to avoid it.
But one thing is certain. If you beat and murder protesters, you should really expect them to retaliate in any country.
Spoiler :
Fixed
Formaldehyde
Both Fair And Balanced
Since I intentionally quoted this line in my post, I think you are the one who is trying to "sneak a whopper in":
And either way, I seriously doubt the government is forcing people to participate even if they may very well be organizing the the demonstrations. Not to mention, the opposition leaders are obviously organizing their own protests. I don't think there is much sponteneity on either side of this.
I think it must be similar to what happened to the US back when we were advocating the torture and murder of completely innocent people while invading and occupying a sovereign country on the basis of lies. But I agree in that I don't see it here based on what has transpired so far.
You mean like this?
Since I intentionally quoted this line in my post, I think you are the one who is trying to "sneak a whopper in":
And either way, I seriously doubt the government is forcing people to participate even if they may very well be organizing the the demonstrations. Not to mention, the opposition leaders are obviously organizing their own protests. I don't think there is much sponteneity on either side of this.
I think it must be similar to what happened to the US back when we were advocating the torture and murder of completely innocent people while invading and occupying a sovereign country on the basis of lies. But I agree in that I don't see it here based on what has transpired so far.
You mean like this?
... you changed your post. You wrote something else in the last paragraph and I thought I was bolding what you originally said. Anyway, sneaky sneaky
. Rallies are always organized, though you would agree that a pro-government rally would have a much easier time securing the support of the militia's and police while an anti-government rally would have no such support even if organized by the opposition.
Formaldehyde
Both Fair And Balanced
Um, you wrote your post 8 1/2 hours after I last edited my first post and 7 hours after I last edited the second one.... you changed your post. You wrote something else in the last paragraph and I thought I was bolding what you originally said. Anyway, sneaky sneaky
Well, duh. But the point you seem to be missing is that pro-government demonstrations typically do not include throwing rocks at police and the intentional burning of state property.
I dont know exactly whats going on in Iran and I believe that majority of Iranians dont know it either. Thats somewhat fate living in such country. I am not sure if unviolent protests should change regime, if not, I understand violent protests and I hope that once will be human rights reestablished. People will find their ways. With current representation in western countries I dont see any chance for political pressure from abroad.
Well, duh. But the point you seem to be missing is that pro-government demonstrations typically do not include throwing rocks at police and the intentional burning of state property.
Pro-government demonstrations are not being attacked by the government either. Getting the crap beatin out of you generally pisses people off (understandably)
Holycannoli
Deity
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2006
- Messages
- 2,406
Umm what happened in the US? A few bleeding heart liberals got upset? That's about it. Nothing happened. Even Obama wised up enough to know to drop the subject instead of pursuing charges against the Bush administration (much to the anger of some liberals), or stopping the interrogation policies, or releasing those "completely innocent people" even though he recently wanted to release some to Yemen, which will probably not happen now with the latest terror attempt. And it shouldn't happen. Let them rot, I don't want them released.
Iran is headed for blood. Either the regime is gonna crack down with blood, or the people will revolt with blood. It's not just gonna peacefully resolve itself because it seems even votes cannot be trusted. When the people can't even trust in their own system of voting, there can't be a truly peaceful resolution to a conflict like this.
No, I was thinking more like this:
Motorcyclist being deliberately run off the road:
And a van knocking someone down, reversing to line them up with their wheel, and then deliberately driving over them:
Formaldehyde
Both Fair And Balanced
Well, those are certainly interesting opinions of what happened, But I doubt you will find too many, other than far-right fanatics, who would actually agree with them.
Obama decided not to prosecute Americans for committing acts of torture and murder for political reasons. I personally think that was a terrible decision on his part for what I think should be obvious reasons. YMMV.
Once again, that is an an opinion shared by many conservatives who are still whining that the brutal fascist regime of the Shah was ever overthrown after the CIA staged a military coup of the country. You really have nobody but other conservatives to blame for what has transpired in Iran since that fateful day in 1953 when the US overthrew a democratically-elected goverment.
It is all about blowback caused by inept US foreign policy decisions.
Angst
Rambling and inconsistent
I'm not following the CFC debate at the moment, but I'm all for the Iranians rightfully having their government crash and burn and found a more pleasant place to live in.
More or less agree...
Slightly off topic, it seems like many of my fellow peeps on the left seem to defend regimes that do not uphold human rights. I just do not get that. Inevitably when challenged, they end up saying something about how the USA is horrible in regard to this or that.
Angst
Rambling and inconsistent
I think it might be because they want to be against ___ .
BasketCase
Username sez it all
Very likely. The thing that separates the new Iranian revolution from other nations (such as North Korea or Saddam's Iraq) is that the dissidents were able to get out in force without being instantly crushed.
Ecofarm
Deity
Let's just use that for everything, right? Noone is ever responsible for anything, except... blowback! It's the cause and excuse for every muslim moral quandry.
Marine barracks?
USS Cole?
9/11?
Iraq today?
Afghanistan today?
Iran today?
Iraq vs. Iran war?
Any war ever?
Any dumbass piece of crap muslim country that produces nothing except suicide?
Blowback.
It is all the US's fault.
I am going to murder the person who invented the term blowback.
Ecofarm
Deity
Bah. That's just blowback.
