Iran is unraveling

[CavLancer]

For outside support to have a chance it would have to come from Muslim countries such as Egypt, Jordan, or France. If the US goes in forget it, we'll have a major fight on our hands and give credibility to the rantings of what's his name.

 

[Quackers]

How do you define "Western"? What makes Iran the most western, and not Turkey(opening wants stronger relations with the West) or all the tiny Persian Gulf states(pro-Western, capitalist)?

They are pretty much one of the only nations in that area of despotic dictators and tyrants who realise they are living unfree and they do stuff about it like marching around streets demonstrating. That is proof enough they want FREEDOM

 

[MeteorPunch]

CIA clicked their incite riot and propaganda buttons.

 

[Agent327]

They are pretty much one of the only nations in that area of despotic dictators and tyrants who realise they are living unfree and they do stuff about it like marching around streets demonstrating. That is proof enough they want FREEDOM

Hmmm... As has been mentioned, the protesters do not protest the Islamic Republic, but the misuse of power by its leaders. (Which is also obvious from incurring 'US and Zionist support' for it as a way of defamation.) That they want freedom isn't a reflection of wanting to institute a Western-style democracy, IMHO.

And I agree outside interference would be counterproductive, rather playing into the hands of those in power; I'm afraid the people must decide what government they want.

 

[GoodGame]

How big are the current protests? Similiar in size to the ones immediately after the election?

 

[Glassfan]

Hmmm... As has been mentioned, the protesters do not protest the Islamic Republic, but the misuse of power by its leaders. (Which is also obvious from incurring 'US and Zionist support' for it as a way of defamation.) That they want freedom isn't a reflection of wanting to institute a Western-style democracy, IMHO.

And therefor it's more of a rebellion than a revolution. I like the guy above who said "muslim countries... like France..."

"Outside interference" is extremely unlikely, unless we mean the Iranian government's attempts to intervene outside its borders to deflect criticism of its own policies.

For the regime to consider the protests as being orchestrated by American or Isreali interests is understandable, since Iran itself has it's fingers in terrorist pies throughout the Middle East, and has orchestrated its own antiWestern street protests for the international press since 1979.

 

[Newbunkle]

iran.whyweprotest.net is usually quick to get new info if anyone is interested in seeing how this goes. I can't say its all verified or true, but its better than waiting for updates on the news.

Protesters rescuing people from a police van:

Link to video.

This is the video of the protester beeing knocked down. I won't embed this one because its a bit graphic, but the video is here for people who do want to watch.

 

[El_Machinae]

Ecofarm, in my opinion, it would be impossible for a Western nation to intervene without making things worse. Especially in a military way.

Our best support, as individual peons, is to click the news stories. Show our media that we want reporters in there.

 

[RedRalph]

I really think people are overestimating the chances of this turning into a revolution. It's possible, but very unlikely. There is still no indication whatsoever that the security forces are about to switch sides.

 

[Newbunkle]

Something more lighthearted...


Link to video.

 

[luiz]

I really think people are overestimating the chances of this turning into a revolution. It's possible, but very unlikely. There is still no indication whatsoever that the security forces are about to switch sides.

Unfortunately, I agree with RedRalph here. People are being over optimistic about the chances of short term progress in Iran. That said, I do think that the Islamic Republic as it exists today is doomed. But it might take as much as a decade for it to fall.

 

[RedRalph]

Unfortunately, I agree with RedRalph here. People are being over optimistic about the chances of short term progress in Iran. That said, I do think that the Islamic Republic as it exists today is doomed. But it might take as much as a decade for it to fall.

Yup, I dont think it's sustainable in the long run, but I think it wuill gradually change, as you say maybe over ten years, and I don't think it will be anywhere near as pro-western as some suspect when it does.

 

[innonimatu]

What he said. How the Iranian regime decides to deal with this is vital. If they decide to go the Shah route and continue with heavy handed crackdowns then I'm sure we'll see a high chance of overthrow.

Actually, the reason why the Shah fell was that he didn't had really heavy-handed crackdowns made. And made against the people that mattered.
The problem with revolutions, and hoping too much out of one, is that determined governments which retain control of its security forces will be able to crush those. The king of France could have crushed the french revolution at birth. The Czar of Russia could have crushed the February revolution and have been forced to deal with no more that temporary peasant and local nationalitic revolutions. The provisional government could have crushed the October revolution if it had handled its generals more carefully. The german Weimar Republic crushed its home revolutions.

More to the point, the chinese crushed the attempt at revolution there back in 1989. Quite effectively. And so did the generals in Burma or whatever that hellhole is named now.
That's the problem with (attempts at) revolutions which turn violent: the least scrupulous and most brutal party will win!

Are the people protesting agains the government in Iran like that? If not, they they better hope that it doesn't really turn violent, or they'll suffer the same fate as those chinese in Tiananmen Square. My suspicion is that parties outside Iran are fanning the flames with the goal of getting exactly that outcome, as an excuse for further actions... If so the protesters will be used and discarded as pawns.

 

[aronnax]

The revolutionary spirit of the Iranian people makes my heart race. The independent thought of the young are protesting that of the old who restrict them! People striving for their determined fight for their voices to be heard, amassing in the streets in protest! Oh this makes me full of excitement! I cannot wait to see the turn of events.

I-R-AN! I-R-AN!

 

[Formaldehyde]

I really think people are overestimating the chances of this turning into a revolution. It's possible, but very unlikely. There is still no indication whatsoever that the security forces are about to switch sides.

I agree.

Every time there is negative news from Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, or any other country which is opposed to US policy, many people (especially the far-right) claim these countries must be "unraveling". I think it is nothing but wishful thinking for the most part.

It was fully expected that there would be protests, and even violence, after the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. It looks like the government was right.

And there still appears to be heavy popular support in Iran for the current rulers and their form of government, although that support is typically downplayed by US media.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8435007.stm

Tens of thousands of Iranians have protested in favour of their government in major cities across the country, following recent opposition protests.

Government supporters marched in Tehran, Shiraz, Qom and elsewhere, chanting "Death to opponents!"

The rallies - reportedly organised by the government - were a response to the opposition demonstrations on Sunday.

It would be interesting to see the results of a truly unbiased poll to know how the people of Iran actually felt about all this. But those polls apparently do not exist. Instead, you have both sides generating propaganda to support their own movements.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

I was also hoping, months ago, that the Iranian government would be overthrown, but it hasn't happened. I think the Iranian people still think that their government can be reformed "if only" the election results were honored. They don't realize that their government is a totalitarian state and just has the superficial appearance of democracy. So they keep protesting, louder and louder, hoping that something will happen. Unfortunately, all that keeps happening is that more people keep getting a beat down.

 

[Formaldehyde]

While it is a theocracy, it is far from being totalitarian. There are far more repressive Muslim governments out there, most of whom happen to be allies of the US.

And what I question is exactly how many are "they", and how many still support the existing government? I get the impression that while being vocal and even violent, that the current protestors only represent a small fraction of the population. If there is no widespread backing, I doubt anything is going to change.

But one thing is certain. If you attack and throw rocks at police while burning private and state property, you should really expect them to retaliate in any country.

Spoiler :

 

[Dachs]

Actually, the reason why the Shah fell was that he didn't had really heavy-handed crackdowns made. And made against the people that mattered.
The problem with revolutions, and hoping too much out of one, is that determined governments which retain control of its security forces will be able to crush those. The king of France could have crushed the french revolution at birth. The Czar of Russia could have crushed the February revolution and have been forced to deal with no more that temporary peasant and local nationalitic revolutions. The provisional government could have crushed the October revolution if it had handled its generals more carefully. The german Weimar Republic crushed its home revolutions.

More to the point, the chinese crushed the attempt at revolution there back in 1989. Quite effectively. And so did the generals in Burma or whatever that hellhole is named now.
That's the problem with (attempts at) revolutions which turn violent: the least scrupulous and most brutal party will win!

This is a superlative post

 

[Ayatollah So]

The problem with revolutions, and hoping too much out of one, is that determined governments which retain control of its security forces will be able to crush those.

But there's the rub. Retaining control of security forces means they have to believe in your government. But that belief can be undermined by ordering the forces to attack the very people they had always thought they were supposed to protect. Sure, you can call the protestors pawns of Israel, and that might be believed when the protestors are a few dozen, but that line doesn't work so well when they're tens of thousands. Only in the halls of U.S. Congress does Israel have that many lobbyists

The loyalty of security forces is a very subtle, nonlinear, tipping-point-y thing. It can look rock solid until it suddenly isn't. I find it extremely hard to believe that any of us outsiders can reliably predict it. Only after the green revolution fails or succeeds, could those with intimate knowledge of it explain why - and even then, the explanation probably won't be indisputable.

 

[The Imp]

I agree.

Every time there is negative news from Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, or any other country which is opposed to US policy, many people (especially the far-right) claim these countries must be "unraveling". I think it is nothing but wishful thinking for the most part.

It was fully expected that there would be protests, and even violence, after the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. It looks like the government was right.

And there still appears to be heavy popular support in Iran for the current rulers and their form of government, although that support is typically downplayed by US media.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8435007.stm



It would be interesting to see the results of a truly unbiased poll to know how the people of Iran actually felt about all this. But those polls apparently do not exist. Instead, you have both sides generating propaganda to support their own movements.

... you do realize that Iran has been organizing its own death to America/pro-government rallies for decades, right? I mean, I agree with a good amount of your post, but come on, you can't sneak that whopper in and not expect someone to call bullcrap(@ bolded).