IS and the Middle East 2020 - your prediction

[calad]

Actually, it is exactly what IS wants. So far, despite they have managed to unite the world speaking out against them, "speaking" is pretty key here. No signs of failing at the moment, nor any fatal weaknesses I know of. So by uniting the world against them, they can claim that every enemy is somehow allied with each other - which is arguably true - which provides to them a steady stream of recruits.

By being hostile to every government, they can garner the support of Sunni terrorists groups in/against these countries. They'll get Palestinian volunteers for being hostile to Israel, Moroccan-European volunteers for being hostile to the EU, Chechen volunteers for being hostile to Russia and the list goes on. So far, they can count more on the support Sunni Islamic groups from outside than they have to count on the reciprociation of hostility by the countries they came from.

This.

ISIS is a nihilistic organization. They are extreamly hostile against everything and only options are to join them or to be destroyed. Same applies to ISIS, to defeat everybody or to be destroyed.

 

[Borachio]

Are they nihilistic, though? Don't they want to establish a caliphate with a regime very, very like that of Saudi Arabia?

 

[Tahuti]

I doubt they are nihilistic. It is more of a strategy that currently is paying off rather well.

 

[classical_hero]

Actually, it is exactly what IS wants. So far, despite they have managed to unite the world speaking out against them, "speaking" is pretty key here. No signs of failing at the moment, nor any fatal weaknesses I know of. So by uniting the world against them, they can claim that every enemy is somehow allied with each other - which is arguably true - which provides to them a steady stream of recruits.

By being hostile to every government, they can garner the support of Sunni terrorists groups in/against these countries. They'll get Palestinian volunteers for being hostile to Israel, Moroccan-European volunteers for being hostile to the EU, Chechen volunteers for being hostile to Russia and the list goes on. So far, they can count more on the support Sunni Islamic groups from outside than they have to count on the reciprociation of hostility by the countries they came from.

But they are unifying the Muslim world to some degree as you can see in Western countries. This is very much becoming a problem.

 

[Phrossack]

On the bright side, maybe IS is luring the extremists out into the open, and a major military offensive could thin their ranks a good bit.

 

[Wolfbeckett]

On the bright side, maybe IS is luring the extremists out into the open, and a major military offensive could thin their ranks a good bit.

Good luck with that. If recent history has taught us anything it's that military action against fanatics just gives them more fuel for their propaganda engine, making it easier for them to breed the next generation of fanatics. You strike one extremist down and 10 more rise up to take his place screaming about how evil the west is, just look at this guy they killed!

 

[Ajidica]

But they are unifying the Muslim world to some degree as you can see in Western countries. This is very much becoming a problem.

Unifying against ISIS, yes.
When you have Sunni 'professional jihadists' (for lack of a better term) condemning ISIS, it should be pretty clear that ISIS is making a lot of enemies. Now, whether or not these people are condemning ISIS due to a difference of beliefs or because they are butthurt ISIS took the world by storm while their jihadist group sputtered into obscurity may be up for debate; but it is difficult to see how ISIS's actions are unifying Muslims in favor of ISIS.

Plus, there is an increasing level of pushback from ISIS's primary recruited demographics: poor unemployment young men. The BBC ran a report about a month ago interviewing several former ISIS fighters who were recruited from Turkey. They were recruited on promises that they would "fight the good fight" and protect Muslims. When they got there, the recruits found they were expected to kill people in the streets and kill Muslims. These recruits tried to leave soon after and have returned home completely dissolusioned with ISIS.

 

[Tahuti]

These recruits tried to leave soon after and have returned home completely dissolusioned with ISIS.

These recruits are probably a minority, considering IS recruits usually undergo a rigorous indoctrination after which they are prepared to do literally everything.

 

[James Stuart]

I doubt they are nihilistic. It is more of a strategy that currently is paying off rather well.

Pissing off the whole world is not a successful long-term strategy. Short-term it's great; you get the happiness bonuses from fighting a defensive war, after all. But ISIL cannot maintain this strategy in the face of a concerted military effort. That effort has yet to materialise - airstrikes are never going to stop a guerrilla army - but it will eventually.

 

[Antilogic]

I predict our strategy of Vietnamization arming the Syrian moderates is going to fail.

 

[James Stuart]

I predict our strategy of Vietnamization arming the Syrian moderates is going to fail.

You mean the strategy that gave ISIL all these weapons in the first place? How could doing the exact same thing in the exact same region with the exact same people possibly backfire in the exact same way?

 

[Antilogic]

You mean the strategy that gave ISIL all these weapons in the first place? How could doing the exact same thing in the exact same region with the exact same people possibly backfire in the exact same way?

I have no idea, man, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say it.

 

[calad]

Unifying against ISIS, yes.
When you have Sunni 'professional jihadists' (for lack of a better term) condemning ISIS, it should be pretty clear that ISIS is making a lot of enemies. Now, whether or not these people are condemning ISIS due to a difference of beliefs or because they are butthurt ISIS took the world by storm while their jihadist group sputtered into obscurity may be up for debate; but it is difficult to see how ISIS's actions are unifying Muslims in favor of ISIS.

Plus, there is an increasing level of pushback from ISIS's primary recruited demographics: poor unemployment young men. The BBC ran a report about a month ago interviewing several former ISIS fighters who were recruited from Turkey. They were recruited on promises that they would "fight the good fight" and protect Muslims. When they got there, the recruits found they were expected to kill people in the streets and kill Muslims. These recruits tried to leave soon after and have returned home completely dissolusioned with ISIS.

There is also a power struggle inside Jihad groups. ISIS is winning so whatever others say means nothing to fanatics.

I predict our strategy of Vietnamization arming the Syrian moderates is going to fail.

Has it worked somewhere? I have understood sooner or later every US pupet had and will collapse.

 

[bhsup]

He will enter, wicked, unpleasant, infamous,
tyrannizing over Mesopotamia.
All friends made by the adulterous lady,
the land dreadful and black of aspect.

 

[Mouthwash]

Syria remains a messy amalgamation of government controlled and non-government controlled fiefdoms that no one cares about since it has been going on for five years; the refugee situations in Syria's neighbors remain miserable and off the radar; international clandestine support of Kurdish fighters and sustained bombing campaigns relegate ISIS to Al-Qaeda like internal squabbling and reduces them to engaging in small scale acts of local terrorism like modern Al-Qaeda offshoots; everything else remains mostly the same. I.e., the middle east remains a mostly pretty crappy place with even the most functional and "safe" countries ruled by totally undemocratic dictators who keep peace at the expense of democracy. Tunisia improves and remains the only beacon of hope for a functional democratic Arab world.

tl;dr: five years isn't all that long and a power vacuum takes a while to really go away.

I actually think ISIS is here to stay, at least for the next decade. Without them, Sunnis are basically helpless. I expect they'll moderate out once their grand jihad goes nowhere, and after their territories are Kafir-free. They'll be a lot more stable internally than other Arab despotisms thanks to their form of government, but their Sunni population won't tolerate endless war. I think an Iranian/Shiite coalition is their biggest existential threat.

EDIT: Oh look, ISIS captures three fighter jets and are being taught to fly by former Iraqi pilots.

 

[brennan]

The history of these particularly extremist movements is that once they stop fighting external enemies they start finding excuses to execute their own heretics...which leads to them finding more...

 

[Borachio]

Looks like my prediction for ISIS getting its own aircraft is coming true already.

http://rt.com/news/196784-isis-syria-pilots-training/

Islamic State militants in Syria are training Iraqi pilots who joined the group to fly in three captured fighter jets, Reuters reported citing witnesses.

"They have trainers, Iraqi officers who were pilots before for [former Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein," said Rami Abdulrahman, who runs the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). "People saw the flights. They went up many times from the airport."

The “same resources” have told SOHR activists that the Islamist fighters seized three aircrafts after taking control over the military airports in Aleppo and al Raqqa provinces.

The group has reportedly been flying the planes over a captured Syrian al-Jarrah military airbase in the northern Aleppo province, which was among the areas in Syria seized by islamists this year.

 

[Phrossack]

It's amazing how much a group of genocidal maniacs can accomplish when everyone just sits back and lets them. Is the Iraqi military even trying?

 

[James Stuart]

It's amazing how much a group of genocidal maniacs can accomplish when everyone just sits back and lets them. Is the Iraqi military even trying?

I think a good portion of the Iraqi military, particularly the Sunnis, were more than willing to sign up. the ISIL were seeing in Iraq is comprised not just of the super-radicals, but also of a large amount of old Saddam loyalists and supporters who have flocked to the only Sunni organisation in the region powerful enough to protect them from growing Shia power. That's probably why there are so many conflicting reports on ISIL's radicalism from different parts of Iraq; the further south you go, the more likely it seems to be old Iraqi military in charge, rather than the jihadists.

 

[kramerfan86]

I think a good portion of the Iraqi military, particularly the Sunnis, were more than willing to sign up. the ISIL were seeing in Iraq is comprised not just of the super-radicals, but also of a large amount of old Saddam loyalists and supporters who have flocked to the only Sunni organisation in the region powerful enough to protect them from growing Shia power. That's probably why there are so many conflicting reports on ISIL's radicalism from different parts of Iraq; the further south you go, the more likely it seems to be old Iraqi military in charge, rather than the jihadists.

IMO that will be a long term problem for ISIS. The enemy of my enemy thing will keep the Baathist element on their side for awhile, but eventually their two very opposing world views will clash, especially if they some how manage to cause Iraq to dissolve.