Middle East thread

[Akka]

You just misread my post. Didn't get that I was telling you that "we don't know what will happen and it can be better or worse or the same" is not logically compatible with "people who literally self-identify as jihadists taking over".

And I literally said :
(and even if Assad regime falls there is no guarantee that it won't just stay at the civil war situation for the years to come, or that something even uglier replaces it)
Assad falling doesn't necessarily means that "Jihadists take over", it just (like, again, explicitely said) mean that the civil war continue (you know, the "there is no guarantee that it won't just stay at the civil war situation for the years to come" bit, which I naively thought was a pretty clear sentence), or a non-Jihadist group can manage to take over, or Syria can break up with each factio ending up with its own mini-country, or Turkey can push farther and just put a puppet government, or a lot of other things.

Unless, of course, your view is that jihadists can be good or bad, or in between; after all, they are humans too, just by definition view non-muslims as subhumans

Religious fanatics are always bad. Due to being fanatics. Which is bad.
They can be "less bad" than a murderous regime like Assad (though unlikely considering, well, Jihadists).
They just aren't the only ones involved in the Syria civil war - and even among them, there are some a lot worse than others, and some a bit better, and a whole lot of Jihadist factions shooting at or allying with each others.

That's the "fun" part about Syria, it's a mess. The "best" side is the Kurds, who seem to be content to be left alone, but they don't seem to be interested in taking over Syria - because precisely they look like to just, well, want to be left alone - and Turkey would never allow them to do it in any case. In fact they are ironically the ones the most at risk if the Assad regime fall, and said Turkey can put all its efforts into destroying them.

 

[Zardnaar]

And I literally said :
(and even if Assad regime falls there is no guarantee that it won't just stay at the civil war situation for the years to come, or that something even uglier replaces it)
Assad falling doesn't necessarily means that "Jihadists take over", it just (like, again, explicitely said) mean that the civil war continue (you know, the "there is no guarantee that it won't just stay at the civil war situation for the years to come" bit, which I naively thought was a pretty clear sentence), or a non-Jihadist group can manage to take over, or Syria can break up with each factio ending up with its own mini-country, or Turkey can push farther and just put a puppet government, or a lot of other things.

Religious fanatics are always bad. Due to being fanatics. Which is bad.
They can be "less bad" than a murderous regime like Assad (though unlikely considering, well, Jihadists).
They just aren't the only ones involved in the Syria civil war - and even among them, there are some a lot worse than others, and some a bit better, and a whole lot of Jihadist factions shooting at or allying with each others.

That's the "fun" part about Syria, it's a mess. The "best" side is the Kurds, who seem to be content to be left alone, but they don't seem to be interested in taking over Syria - because precisely they look like to just, well, want to be left alone - and Turkey would never allow them to do it in any case. In fact they are ironically the ones the most at risk if the Assad regime fall, and said Turkey can put all its efforts into destroying them.

At best Islamist regime with limited atrocities and cease fire with Kurds.

Big losers Alawites depending on scale of revenge. They've had decades to make concessions vs authoritarianism though.

 

[banzay13]

At best Islamist regime with limited atrocities and cease fire with Kurds.

Big losers Alawites depending on scale of revenge. They've had decades to make concessions vs authoritarianism though.

Ceasefire will last till US stay with Kurds. Then they leave (witch is question of time), Kurds will regret, what they didn't went back to Damask control in 2017
Asad can blame only himself. He didn't do anything to improve domestic policy or economy. Corruption became only worser

 

[Zardnaar]

Looking more like regime collapse.

 

[Akka]

The Syrian army seems to simply be melting, either through defections or surrender. Even the Kurds have taken over places held by government forces (despite being the only faction which was somewhat working with Assad, I guess they are reasoning that Assad is done and as such they have to ensure that it's stable at home).
The whole Daraa province in southern Syria has been basically handed over by the army to local rebellions (a different faction than those from the north).

 

[Zardnaar]

The Syrian army seems to simply be melting, either through defections or surrender. Even the Kurds have taken over places held by government forces (despite being the only faction which was somewhat working with Assad, I guess they are reasoning that Assad is done and as such they have to ensure that it's stable at home).
The whole Daraa province in southern Syria has been basically handed over by the army to local rebellions (a different faction than those from the north).

Apparently Assads best unit is guarding the palace. Vs Homs

 

[Akka]

Rebels have reached the outskirts of Damascus itself. I'd cautiously say it would take a miracle - or maybe the different rebel factions suddenly going at each other's throat rather than the government - to save Assad's regime now.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

A private plane has been seen doing several travels between Damascus and Abu Dhabi in the last hours. The rats leaving the sinking boat probably.

 

[innonimatu]

Typical british "intelligence" script: bribe portions of the ruling elites to rebel and publish false stories about the government collapsing. Was used before in Syria and was also attempted in Libya.

Only place it worked in the ME was Iran in 2003. Always fighting the last glorious war...

 

[Zardnaar]

Typical british "intelligence" script: bribe portions of the ruling elites to rebel and publish false stories about the government collapsing. Was used before in Syria and was also attempted in Libya.

Only place it worked in the ME was Iran in 2003. Always fighting the last glorious war...

Might want to pay more attention.

Rate of advance is very fast, regime soldiers aren't fighting himself is expected to fall soon.

And Damascus from the sounds of it.

 

[saamohod]

It's funny to notice that this is exactly how russians expected things would happen in Ukraine in 2022, with the major cities getting captured within days, the country leader flees abroad and the state army either retreats without fighting or joins the opposing force.
Very unexpected I should say. Especially since in the latest "elections" Assad's support was 95.1%, compared to Zelensky's 73%.
Strange things happening indeed.

 

[danjuno]

Did I wake up in 2011 again?

 

[Thorgalaeg]

The private jet that I mentioned before (an Embraer with the Gambian flag) continues its transfer between Damascus and Abu Dhabi, evacuating the last members of the large chinless family.

Btw it seems the Russian are doing the same around Tartus,

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I stand corrected, destination was apparently Damascus again, then it seems they changed his mind (notice the funny change of direction after crossing the iraqi frontier) and turned towards
al Assad International Airport northern of Tartus (the same airport russians are using to flee out of syria), then suddenly just when it was flying 33,000 feet above Homs it changed altitude sharply
a couple of times up then down by 300-400 feet and inmediately it disappeared of the screen:

Two possibilities: They simply switched off the transponder (wouldn't explain those weird altitude variations though) or were
shot down by the rebels at Homs! (lol)

 

[Thorgalaeg]

BTW, there are reports about the remaining SAA officers in Damascus negotiating the surrender of the capital just now. Wow that was even faster than Afghanistan if true.

Update: an Airbus A340 from Teheran (maybe carrying troops?) was also heading to al Assad airport, then it disappeared above the Syrian eastern desert too. Switching off transponder is obviously a common safety practice when flying over enemy territory, anyway the Embraer did it a bit late I would say. In any case they are not landing in Damascus anymore like they did this morning which kind of support the above paragraph.

Well, time to go to bed, i find ii amazing to see history developing live in my cellphone.

 

[Zardnaar]

Sounds like the fat lady is singing.

Looks like Damascus has fallen, Assads forces just giving up. Assads location unknown UAE or Russia?

 

[innonimatu]

The fat lady is singing as much as it sang for Maduro when the US was opupettering that guaido guy. Masses fop propaganda originating in Longon and Virginia taken as fact...
Why do people keep falling for the fat lady?

 

[Zardnaar]

The fat lady is singing as much as it sang for Maduro when the US was opupettering that guaido guy. Masses fop propaganda originating in Longon and Virginia taken as fact...
Why do people keep falling for the fat lady?

Seems Damascus has fallen or in process of falling.

 

[Snowygerry]

Assad left the country, PM has announced he will negotiate a transfer of power.

That’s what reported here, seems a done deal.

 

[Zardnaar]

Assad left the country, PM has announced he will negotiate a transfer of power.

That’s what reported here, seems a done deal.

Al Jazeera said he's left.