To follow up from last week - this is why I support an attack with Cannons. It is going to be about 10 turns until we can tech rifles and once we tech rifles we will need number of turns to build up a decent number of Red Coats. While it would great to attack with a combined and overwhelming force of cannons, red coats, and Cavalry - we need to consider what Sancta could do while we tech rifles and build redcoats.
In my mind the question is attacking in 5-10 turns with cannons. Or 15-25 turns with redcoats.
We can assume they know we are going to attack soon, so any assumption that they will maintain the status quo on their side is misguided. I anticipate that Sancta will shortly be teching Chemistry followed by steel and military science (or maybe MS 1st and then steel). If anyone can give an estimate on sancta's tech rate that would be very useful. My estimate is that they will take 10-15 turns to get this technology. Once they have these techs they can counter our invasion with cannons and grenadiers. While Red Coats do get a bonus vs. gunpowder units - grenadiers can attack redcoats quite successfully. Cannons I believe are a greater threat as they can decimate our attacking stacks.
For comparison:
Attacking in 5-10 turns.
We have ~10 cannons and ~10 support units.
Sancta has catapults, maces, muskets, knights, longbows
Team Cav has ????
Attacking 15-25
We have ~15 cannons, ~10 rifles, and ~10 support units.
Sancta has cannons, grenadiers, and possibly cuirassiers
Team Cav has ????
Lets assume that in 5-10 turns Sancta has 5-10 catapults. That would not significantly damage our stack. But in 15-25 turns they could easily have 10-20 cannons which would greatly damage our stack and they would probably be able to completely destroy it if they struck 1st.
We just don't have the same level of production as Sancta and if both our team and theirs commits to a war footing they will be able to outproduce us. Or advantage is the proximity to the front line and temporary superior technology. Both of these advantages disappear over time. While Team Cav can match Sancta's production - if we wait too long we risk becoming bit players in a war between two super powers.
Not only do I believe that an earlier attack will be more successful, but I also anticipate that the sooner we can attack Sancta - the less able Sancta will be able to counter attack once they have equivalent technology. I think a combined Cav Kaz army will be able to overrun TKY, Zero, and Dragon Tears. By that point Sancta will probably have cannons and we will need to regroup. But with 3 less cities Sancta will have significantly less production. Also, at this point, a counter attack will be more difficult as our forces and Team Cav forces will be united at Dragon Tears. If we wait to attack, our army and Team Cav's army will be more vulnerable to attack as we move in from the South and Cav comes in from the West.
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