Monkeypox thread

Which will have the higher mortality in 10 years?

  • COVID-19

    Votes: 9 33.3%
  • Monkeypox

    Votes: 1 3.7%
  • Giant Death Robots

    Votes: 17 63.0%

  • Total voters
    27
Of course it is airborne.

It travels with people in aeroplanes.

Unless you want to believe the people swim all the way from Africa.

No, it's actually airborne. The US military did a number of experiences in the 00's that verified just that, it can spread as aerosols.
The good news is that if people actually bothered to take care to protect against covid, it works against that route of attack by monkeypox also.
In any case this is far less transmissible than covid. And hopefully it won't mutate as fast.

But how can one hope that diseases be contained, when London is welcoming polio back?
Easy travel will collapse the world.
 
Monkeypox may have undergone 'accelerated evolution'

As a large double-stranded DNA virus, monkeypox is much more able to correct replication errors than an RNA virus such as HIV, meaning that the current monkeypox strain should have really only accumulated a handful of mutations since it first started circulating in 2018. But, after collecting DNA from 15 monkeypox viral samples and reconstructing their genetic information, the researchers found that the real mutation rate was six to 12 times higher than they expected.

Abstract:

The largest monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak described so far in non-endemic countries was identified in May 2022. Here, shotgun metagenomics allowed the rapid reconstruction and phylogenomic characterization of the first MPXV outbreak genome sequences, showing that this MPXV belongs to clade 3 and that the outbreak most likely has a single origin. Although 2022 MPXV (lineage B.1) clustered with 2018-2019 cases linked to an endemic country, it segregates in a divergent phylogenetic branch, likely reflecting continuous accelerated evolution. An in- depth mutational analysis suggests the action of host APOBEC3 in viral evolution as well as signs of potential MPXV human adaptation in ongoing microevolution. Our findings also indicate that genome sequencing may provide resolution to track the spread and transmission of this presumably slow-evolving dsDNA virus.
Paper Writeup

HpnkgO1.png

Spoiler Legend :
Phylogenetic analysis of MPXV viral sequences associated with the 2022 worldwide outbreak. A. MPVX global phylogeny showing that the 2022 outbreak cluster (lineage B.1) belongs to clade 3. Clade and lineage are designated according to the nomenclature proposed by Happi et al., 2022; B. Genetic diversity within the outbreak cluster including the 15 sequences analysed in this study (released on NCBI before May 27th of 2022). The deletion symbol (Δ) denotes a large deletion (11335-12247 in MPXV-UK_P2-010 gene) shared by sequences segregating in a small sub-cluster; C. Outbreak phylogenetic tree updated with sequences available in NCBI as of June 15th 2022 (provided during revision for more updated contextualization
 
For only the 7th time ever the WHO has declared a ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ over Monkeypox

Over the weekend, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the monkeypox outbreak spreading globally is a ‘public health emergency of international concern’ (PHEIC). Researchers hope that the declaration — the agency’s highest alarm — might serve as a wake-up call for countries as they struggle to contain the spread of the virus that causes monkeypox.​
Since the first cases were detected outside Africa in May, more than 16,500 people have been confirmed infected in nearly 80 countries that don’t typically see cases. Monkeypox has been circulating in parts of Africa for decades.​
Researchers have been warning that the window of opportunity for containing the global monkeypox outbreak is rapidly closing. The virus is already established in an animal reservoir in some parts of Africa, making its eradication a difficult task. One fear is that the virus could spread from humans to animals elsewhere in the world, establishing further reservoirs from which humans could be infected repeatedly.​
Even as cases are soaring in Germany, Spain and the United States, some think that containment is still possible, however. The PHEIC signals loudly to public-health officials that the time to act is now, says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland. “We can’t accept this as an endemic virus,” she says.​
Countries should work to increase the number of people tested, boost contact-tracing efforts and isolate people as early as possible after symptoms are detected, Rivers adds.​
The PHEIC sends a clear message to countries that their participation in the global response — which might include sharing vaccines and treatments — is necessary for containment. The WHO issued guidelines for countries when announcing the alarm, offering recommendations on testing, public-health measures and messaging, travel advisories, infection prevention and control, and global coordination.​
While wealthy countries use vaccines for monkeypox, Titanji warns that the ongoing outbreaks in Africa, where there have been more than 70 suspected deaths from the virus this year, “cannot be relegated to a footnote”. (So far, no deaths have occurred in people infected outside Africa.) She hopes that the WHO will promote equity in the global monkeypox response by helping to scale-up surveillance and testing for the virus in Africa, and by allocating money for research and vaccines there. “We got into this problem by allowing monkeypox to rage on for 50 years in Africa,” she says.​
U4nWFBT.png
 
I've said during covid, we desperately need to do better, because these things are pandemics set on 'easy mode'. We're at what? 21k? This is another pandemic that could be on easy mode, given the resources we have available. If we can't nip something as easy as this one, then further investments are essential, probably beyond the "someone else's job" category.

I think conversations about what would have flattened the curve (or what can still flatten the curve, if things get worse!) will be valuable as analogies for future scares. It looks to be pretty brutal at the individual level.
 
Historically, it only hit Africans at a few hundred (ymmv) per year with a case fatality rate of about ~6%-ish (ctrl+f "CFR"). So, obviously this is all new and novel for us. There will be scandal as this unfolds, since there will have been 'bungling' regarding handling the early transmission cases.
 
Should we change the name?
They finally have. Are we sure we should get scientists to come up with the names when they can apply this much imagination?

WHO to phase out the name ‘monkeypox’ for ‘mpox’

The World Health Organization (WHO) has introduced a new preferred term for the disease caused by the monkeypox virus: mpox. The virus was named in 1958, before current best practices were adopted to minimize racist or stigmatizing effects. The virus itself remains unchanged — the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses has so far decided to keep the original name to maintain the continuity of the scientific literature. The two branches of the monkeypox virus have already been widely re-dubbed: the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as clade I and the West African clade as clade II.​
 
They finally have. Are we sure we should get scientists to come up with the names when they can apply this much imagination?
I guess an attempt in backwards compatibility of some sort is preventing creativity here.

It's also not so that I'd like this to be named the... er... sblorp virus, or whatever.
 
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