Most Epic Screwups in History?

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And you and he should both check my posts before you make yours. Give me a reason to invade China. Give me something to be gained. Tell me what Japan didn't have to lose. Point out where anything I said was wrong. This invitation is open to BL as well, who failed to do so in his first post.

Now, you can make an argument that there was plenty for Japan to gain from invading and conquering Manchuria. Which they did. And they damn well should have stopped there. China proper was a whole other kettle of fish, and any intelligent group of people would have realised that. Unfortunately, those people were on their lunch break in Japan from about '34 onwards.

At the time China was in the process of being unified under Chiang Kai-Shek. The Japanese leaders would've felt their interests in China (and Manchuria, which at the time was something like 80% Han) was threatened. The 1937 War was partly to stop this potential challenge in the region. Also, the War in China was for the Japanese military what the Spanish Civil War was for the German Air Force - a chance to test modern equipments and tactics. Why China, well look on the map - China was the only target Japan could strike without provoking war with a Great Power.

But the main reason though was pretty much as BananaLee said. The Japanese militarists, like Mussolini and Hitler, wanted an empire. China offered Japan cheap labour (the Japanese assuming the Chinese were inferior people who would be easily conquered), vast markets for Japanese goods, untapped resources, and Lebensraum. Most importantly though was prestige. In the 1930s the idea of Empire still appeals to Japan and the other Axis powers. It was still a source of pride. And Japan wanted to be accepted into the league of Great Powers.
 
not really a counter point but pre ww1 everyone wanted a piece of china so there must be something worth possessing there, its been suggested that if ww1 hadnt happened china may have gone the way of africa
Pre-First World War China and 1937 China are not comparable in any sense of the word in terms of military and civilian capability to resist external enemies.
 
and as for versailles i think it was more a bad compromise than anything else, just tryed to please everyone there they should have either decided to be harsh or be lenient but they went for some confused middle ground

Indeed. Case in point: Shantung, China. The German possessions there was conquered by Japan during the War. Japan then issued the 21 Demands to Yuan Shikai effectively handing over control to Japan. Then Yuan Shikai died and China joined the Allies, and at the Conference the Chinese wanted the return of Shantung. However, the racial equality clause which was one of the main objectives for the Japanese at Versailles was turned down, and Wilson had little choice but to gave Japan want it wanted in Shantung. Then a few years later, Japan (semi-forced by the Western powers) gave Shantung back to China.
 
Give me a reason to invade China. Give me something to be gained.

Shanghai cotton
Jiangnan silk
Chengdu tobacco
Coal from the Northwest
Cheap labour
A pride in the fact that there is an Empire (Empire for Empire's sake). You don't seem to put much value of pride, but in the context of world politics, one-upmanship is quite important (in case you haven't noticed, world politics is like a playground).
The Northeast only had two main resources at that point in time, timber and ginseng.
The resources I named are just the few which I mentioned in my own essay about Chinese economy during the Ming and Qing dynasties - so yes, I have sources and I have done my research.

China proper was a whole other kettle of fish, and any intelligent group of people would have realised that. Unfortunately, those people were on their lunch break in Japan from about '34 onwards.

Any intelligent group? Of course, any intelligent group would have figured out that MAD was a stupid policy, as was balance of power, as was the South Sea bubble. Hindsight is always 20/20.
 
Oh, did I mention grain as well? After all, people DO need to eat. 11% of Japan is arable, whereas almost all off China proper (i.e. the plains around the two rivers) was ridiculously, overly, intensively farmed and produced ludicrous yields. 3000:1 seed yield from my lecturer's figures

Why invade China? Why invade the one nation that had absolutely nothing Japan wanted or needed, besides land?

I think land's a pretty important thing. It's like asking the question, "Why take an oxygen tank when climbing up Everest? It has absolutely nothing a climber needs, besides oxygen"
 
China had people, land and resources. It would also give Japan a place on the world stage, or so the Japanese believed. Those are their reasons for invading. The same as why the Europeans went out conquering places.
 
Maybe I can add France's epic fail at creating a sizable colony in New France?

New France population 1759: about 25,000-30,000 for a huge territory spreading from Louisiana to Newfoundland. The population of the New England colony at the same time was at least ten times higher and concentrated in modern New England.

Of course, France had a lot of issues at the time, financially, and it was more concerned about its position in Europe itself, but still, they probably underrated what they could get from New France. Most of its time, New France was a fur-hat factory.
 
They didn't want large colonies. They just wanted the money from the fur trade, which just required small posts.
 
Hmm, I thought this wa a different thread :mischief:

But still I don't think they would have got that much more out of larger colonies. Canada was not as good a place for colonies, and all of the French colonies would have been in Canada, the British had some more southern ones without the harsh winters (yes I realize they also had Boston and stuff).

Their colonies just had different purposes, look at the settlements in Rupert's Land, where they had a more similar purpose.
 
A different purpose, but doomed to be swallowed by someone else with a better plan I guess. It's not as if France decided from the beginning that New France was going to be a short-lived colony to exploit for as long as they could until it was going to be captured. They actually had, at various points, sort of a hope that it'd become a good colony for them.
 
Who was correcting you? I was agreeing. Stop being so defensive.
I wasn't being defensive, just pointing out that I hadn't mentioned them for a reason. I thought you were correcting me.

At the time China was in the process of being unified under Chiang Kai-Shek. The Japanese leaders would've felt their interests in China (and Manchuria, which at the time was something like 80% Han) was threatened. The 1937 War was partly to stop this potential challenge in the region. Also, the War in China was for the Japanese military what the Spanish Civil War was for the German Air Force - a chance to test modern equipments and tactics. Why China, well look on the map - China was the only target Japan could strike without provoking war with a Great Power.
Chiang Kai Shek was a negligible threat to Japan. He could be taken care of through assassination, proxy wars, etc. No need for a full-scale assault. China was a terrible target for testing new equipment and tactics on, due to its weakness. Look what happened to Japan when it went toe-to-toe with Russia in 1939. And a war with China would damn well provoke a war with a Great Power, because the US, USSR, Britain and France would all intervene to prevent a Japanese conquest of China. It would make them the dominant force in East Asia and the Pacific, and none of those states could accept such a change in the status quo.

But the main reason though was pretty much as BananaLee said. The Japanese militarists, like Mussolini and Hitler, wanted an empire. China offered Japan cheap labour (the Japanese assuming the Chinese were inferior people who would be easily conquered), vast markets for Japanese goods, untapped resources, and Lebensraum. Most importantly though was prestige. In the 1930s the idea of Empire still appeals to Japan and the other Axis powers. It was still a source of pride. And Japan wanted to be accepted into the league of Great Powers.
Land I've already mentioned, it was of great importance to Japan, which had a population crisis. Manchuria took care of that problem nicely. The assumption that the Chinese oculd easily be used for cheap labour due to their inferiority was incorrect, and the Japanese should have known it. No-one willingly accepts slavery, and China was not an easy conquest. Far more resources would be expended on pacification than would be acquired through conquest and slavery. And China, with the exception of a few major cities, would not be good markets for Japanese goods.

You are correct about Japan wanting prestige. But such a benefit is massively outweighed by the problems inherent in a conquest of China. Hence my comment about them having nothing to gain and plenty to lose.

Shanghai cotton
Jiangnan silk
Chengdu tobacco
Coal from the Northwest
Cheap labour
A pride in the fact that there is an Empire (Empire for Empire's sake). You don't seem to put much value of pride, but in the context of world politics, one-upmanship is quite important (in case you haven't noticed, world politics is like a playground).
The Northeast only had two main resources at that point in time, timber and ginseng.
The resources I named are just the few which I mentioned in my own essay about Chinese economy during the Ming and Qing dynasties - so yes, I have sources and I have done my research.
Japan had its own silk, which it considered - correctly or otherwise, I don't know - superior to China's. The expenditure required to get their hands on that coal would be worth far more than the coal itself. I've already mentioned the cheap labour, it doesn't offset pacification. Tobacco and cotton could be acquired from other sources through legitimate trade, at far less cost. Timber I knew about, ginseng I did not. But by Northeast, I assume you mean Manchuria, so they should already have had that. Timber would be especially important to Japan.

As for pride, I am well-aware of the importance of one-upsmanship on the world scene. But Japan already possessed an overseas empire, albeit a small one, and she faced threats on several sides, especially the USSR. Prestige =/= willing allies and an army not bogged down invading a territory as vast as China. Japan needed protection from outside threats, not to throw away millions of lives in a meaningless conquest which would only win them more enemies.

Any intelligent group? Of course, any intelligent group would have figured out that MAD was a stupid policy, as was balance of power, as was the South Sea bubble. Hindsight is always 20/20.
What? MAD and the balance of power are great policies. MAD ensures that no-one fires off nukes, and the balance of power ensures that no one group becomes dominant, though the theory is being superceded by balance of threat, in my opinion are more accurate, though still incomplete doctrine. The South Sea bubble I don't know enough about to comment, aside from knowing it was a massive failure.

Oh, did I mention grain as well? After all, people DO need to eat. 11% of Japan is arable, whereas almost all off China proper (i.e. the plains around the two rivers) was ridiculously, overly, intensively farmed and produced ludicrous yields. 3000:1 seed yield from my lecturer's figures
I assume you mean rice. Rice could far more easily be acquired for the Japanese through legitimate trade, primarily with the Phillipines. The fact that Japan still needed rice in 1941, after conquering a pretty sizeable part of China, shows that it's not the grain itself that is important, but its cultivation and transportation, which suffered under Japanese rule. Such legitimate trade would also have strengthened Japan's economy while not angering and frightening its neighbours.

I think land's a pretty important thing. It's like asking the question, "Why take an oxygen tank when climbing up Everest? It has absolutely nothing a climber needs, besides oxygen"
Japan had already acquired all the land it needed for colonisation in Manchuria, Korea, Formosa and its Pacific Island territories. It had no need for more. Especially not when the land was absolutely teeming with Chinese.

China had people, land and resources. It would also give Japan a place on the world stage, or so the Japanese believed. Those are their reasons for invading. The same as why the Europeans went out conquering places.
The Europeans didn't do it at the expense of their own security (most of the time). Japan did. That's why the few benefits were massively outeweighed by the extensive problems - especially security, I cannot stress this enough, only an idiot would send the bulk of his forces into a place like 1930s China while engaged in a territorial dispute with Russia - such an attempted conquest would place on them.

The fact is that Japan could never have conquered China without the acquiescence of the Great Powers, and the Great Powers would never acquiesce. Japan should have accepted its place as a major power and worked on improving its economy and perhaps extending its empire slowly, primarily by winning concessions in China as the Europeans had done in the past. The invasion of China was a huge strategic mistake on Japan's part, hence they shouldn't have bloody invaded it, and had no real reason to do so. "Because it makes me feel like a big man" may work for Jimbo Jones, but national leaders should know better, especially the goddamn military.
 
It may not have been a good idea, but the Japanese leadership believed they could easily crush the Chinese.

They made many bad assumptions, but if they had conquered China that would have dramatically changed the political and military situation throughout Asia, primarily for Japan's benefit.

Looking at China's modern history you see repeated examples of swift defeats and quick, and significant, concessions by the Chinese government, and yes 1930s China was different, but the Japanese likely didn't take this into account.

Yes invading China was a major screw-up, but they did have reasons for it (some of them quite good), the costs was just greater than what they would receive.
 
It may not have been a good idea, but the Japanese leadership believed they could easily crush the Chinese.

They made many bad assumptions, but if they had conquered China that would have dramatically changed the political and military situation throughout Asia, primarily for Japan's benefit.

Looking at China's modern history you see repeated examples of swift defeats and quick, and significant, concessions by the Chinese government, and yes 1930s China was different, but the Japanese likely didn't take this into account.

Yes invading China was a major screw-up, but they did have reasons for it (some of them quite good), the costs was just greater than what they would receive.
Agreed, and I never claimed that there wasn't anything at all to gain from a conquest of China - though I can see why some people might jump to that conclusion. What I meant was that the gains were incredibly disproportionate to the losses, so much so as to make an invasion of China a relative loss, not a relative gain.

And I stand by my statement that the Japanese leadership were idiots for believing otherwise.
 
What I meant was that the gains were incredibly disproportionate to the losses, so much so as to make an invasion of China a relative loss, not a relative gain.
And I stand by my statement that the Japanese leadership were idiots for believing otherwise.

I still disagree with that statement. As I said, hindsight is 20/20. Japan was keen for an Empire - for the prestige reasons which I mentioned earlier and you seem to treat as completely useless - and justified it for the reasons I've mentioned earlier.
China at that point in time was a motley collection of warlords who were busy squabbling and undergoing a lot of infighting. Previous experience (First Sino-Japanese War) indicated that the Chinese were rubbish in a fight. There's loads of reasons why China would be seen as an easy target for some free resources.

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What? MAD and the balance of power are great policies. MAD ensures that no-one fires off nukes, and the balance of power ensures that no one group becomes dominant, though the theory is being superceded by balance of threat, in my opinion are more accurate, though still incomplete doctrine.

The idea of MAD and balance of power is just plain bollocks. The idea of two vast opposing armies, each acting as the other's deterrent to prevent war is a fun fantasy doctrine. All it would take is one small thing to spark off massive problems (WW1 is the perfect example)as shown on Richardson's Arms Race Model. Any increase in the g-factor (greviances) or decrease in f-factor (fatigue/war-weariness/etc.) could easily push the solution into an unstable arms race (i.e. war).
I would grant that I can't think of any alternative solution (I'd be a Nobel Peace Prize winner if I did) - but just because there's no alternative solution, it doesn't mean the concept is bollocks. Similar to how "democracy is the worst form of government, except all the others that have been tried"
 
Basically, call it the Epic Fails of History. Such a category will usually include any decision that went wrong, with huge consequences.

I would include such screwups as the League of Nations and the Great Leap Forward in the list.
I would rate Napolean's and Hitler's eastward invasion into the near-Arctic steppes of Russia, with hostile climate and population, no ability to live off land, and doubtful value as high on the list.
 
I would rate Napolean's and Hitler's eastward invasion into the near-Arctic steppes of Russia, with hostile climate and population, no ability to live off land, and doubtful value as high on the list.
The population didn't start off hostile to Hitler everywhere. And the "near-Arctic" part wasn't as big a problem as the rasputitsa.

Also, yeah. Those'd be pretty big ones on the list. Napoleon's campaign somewhat less than Hitler's, as mentioned somewhat earlier in the thread.
 
I still disagree with that statement. As I said, hindsight is 20/20. Japan was keen for an Empire - for the prestige reasons which I mentioned earlier and you seem to treat as completely useless - and justified it for the reasons I've mentioned earlier.
China at that point in time was a motley collection of warlords who were busy squabbling and undergoing a lot of infighting. Previous experience (First Sino-Japanese War) indicated that the Chinese were rubbish in a fight. There's loads of reasons why China would be seen as an easy target for some free resources.

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A competent military leadership should not have fewed China as an easy target. Let's face it, Japan has tried to invade China several times in its history, the idea is nothing new. Every single time they failed miserably. Looking at it objectively, they should have seen that this time would be no different, but they were too caught up in their own delusions of superiority to do so.

Regarding the Chinese being rubbish in a fight, they actually put up a half-decent fight in the first war - considering it was basically Japan versus one warlord, not a unified China - and any Japanese illusions of Chinese inability in a fight should have been dispelled by Shanghai. But Japan's military leadership was incapable of looking at anything objectively. The infamous strategy session prior to Midway, where sunken ships were magically resurrected to provide victory is the perfect example of the Japanese mindset at the time. Hindsight isn't what's needed to see that that's idiocy, mere common sense is.

I said earlier that prestige is pointless without anything to back it up. And Japan could back up everything they said in 1937, but pissed it away by attacking China, as any objective analyst should have seen at the time. It's not like Japan didn't have accurate intelligence or anything, they simply viewed it from an ideological, rather than military or diplomatic point of view. Or for that matter, an economic one.

The idea of MAD and balance of power is just plain bollocks. The idea of two vast opposing armies, each acting as the other's deterrent to prevent war is a fun fantasy doctrine. All it would take is one small thing to spark off massive problems (WW1 is the perfect example)as shown on Richardson's Arms Race Model. Any increase in the g-factor (greviances) or decrease in f-factor (fatigue/war-weariness/etc.) could easily push the solution into an unstable arms race (i.e. war).
I would grant that I can't think of any alternative solution (I'd be a Nobel Peace Prize winner if I did) - but just because there's no alternative solution, it doesn't mean the concept is bollocks. Similar to how "democracy is the worst form of government, except all the others that have been tried"
MAD is a great idea in a nuclear world, for the simple reason that, as you said, there's no other feasible one. WHen you have no other options, you go with what you've got. Admittedly, MAD is a trap, but it's a completely unavoidable one, and as such should be embraced readily.

And any claim that balance of power is bollocks makes me seriously doubt your knowledge of international relations. Balance of power is positively fundamental to an understanding of how nations relate. Or are you simply referring to the Cold War specifically? Even then, I'm not sure how it can be considered bollocks, unless you're knowledgeable about the balance of threat doctrine, and it's still not a very widespread idea, and frankly doesn't so much change BoP as add to it.

And democracy is not the best system of government. Benevolent despotism ftw.
 
Japan has tried to invade China several times in its history, the idea is nothing new.

wat?

Regarding the Chinese being rubbish in a fight, they actually put up a half-decent fight in the first war - considering it was basically Japan versus one warlord, not a unified China

wat?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Sino-Japanese_War

I said earlier that prestige is pointless without anything to back it up. And Japan could back up everything they said in 1937, but pissed it away by attacking China, as any objective analyst should have seen at the time.

Give me a contemporary source which posits this theory. "Any objective analyst"? Like whom? Otherwise, that whole point is pure hogwash.


MAD is a great idea in a nuclear world, for the simple reason that, as you said, there's no other feasible one.

It's not great because there's no other feasible one. That's like saying eating poo is great because there's nothing else to eat. "Nothing better" is not a reason for something being awesome.

Even then, I'm not sure how it can be considered bollocks, unless you're knowledgeable about the balance of threat doctrine, and it's still not a very widespread idea, and frankly doesn't so much change BoP as add to it.

Why don't you go and read up the Richardson's Arms Race Model and come back to me? The numbers don't work out and it would inevitably lead to conflict - again.

I already said I can't think of any other way to do it but just because there's no better way doesn't mean it's a good way.

And democracy is not the best system of government. Benevolent despotism ftw.

Give me a benevolent dictatorship which didn't turn into a hot, steaming mug of Horlicks after the awesome dictator left office.
 
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