NASA's Future Uncertain?

[Nylan]

http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0908/12augustine/

Excerpt:

NASA's current long-range plan, developed in the wake of the 2003 Columbia disaster as a Bush administration initiative, is to complete the space station, retire the shuttle fleet and develop a new Orion crew capsule that will be launched to the station by Ares 1 rockets.

During the gap between shuttle operations and the debut of Ares-1/Orion, U.S. astronauts will have to hitch rides to the station aboard Russian Soyuz rockets. NASA managers have assumed all along the station program would be extended and Ares 1/Orion would be used to deliver crews and supplies.

NASA also plans to develop a huge new unmanned heavy lift rocket called the Ares 5 that eventually will boost Orion capsules and Altair lunar landers to the moon for long-duration exploration.

But during a final public hearing today in Washington, the Augustine panel provided a sobering look at NASA's projected budget and the requirements of various manned space flight scenarios.

Considering the Constellation program as the "program of record," panel member and former astronaut Sally Ride said NASA would need an additional $50 billion or so through 2020 to implement the program as currently planned. This scenario is known as the "unconstrained budget" case.

It assumes the shuttle is retired on schedule and that the space station is deorbited in early 2016, an option no one on the panel seems to favor. In that scenario, the new Orion/Ares 1 system would have no destination until the Ares 5 heavy lifter debuted and moon flights began after 2021.

"In the unconstrained budget, Orion and Ares 1 arrive shortly after ISS is deorbited," Ride said. "And then you get human lunar return in 2021."

Assuming NASA is forced to live within the 2010 budget guidelines provided by the Obama administration, the Ares 5 heavy lift moon rocket would not be ready until the 2028 timeframe.

So, what does CFC think is the best course of action? Extended budget? Extension of the shuttle program? Early end to ISS support? Complete revision of NASA's plans? Currently, the program seems to be on shaky legs. What is most important...what should we be focused on right now?

 

[Fr8monkey]

I think the whole world needs to put its petty diferences aside and have everyone contribute. Having USA, russia, France Germany, England, China and Japan all doing pretty much the same thing is lame. All those resources put together would solve most of the problem.

First is a conference to get everyone on the same page and then concentrate on a single reusable vehicle design for getting into space. Then expand the space station to maximum efficiency and then a base on the moon. That will take care of the first 50 years or so.

 

[Shaihulud]

Retire the shuttle on schedule 2010, rely on Soyuz and international support for any mission for the ISS, this will forge cooperation with the Russian space programmes and ESA. Full on ahead with the Ares programme for manned flight back to the Moon, there should not be any diversion. Build moon base and eventually a manned mission to Mars in 2030. That was the talk 2 weeks back at least.

 

[Nylan]

Retire the shuttle on schedule 2010, rely on Soyuz and international support for any mission for the ISS, this will forge cooperation with the Russian space programmes and ESA. Full on ahead with the Ares programme for manned flight back to the Moon, there should not be any diversion. Build moon base and eventually a manned mission to Mars in 2030. That was the talk 2 weeks back at least.

Then where does the money come from?

 

[warpus]

I just read an article about NASA which claimed that NASA doesn't have enough money to go to the moon.. so that is out.

Personally I think it should get a lot more funding - but that isn't gong to happen until they get some serious competition. ie. if the Chinese (or whoever) started working on a real, comprehensive mission to send people to the moon.

 

[Nylan]

So what should be done until such funds can be acquired? If anything, it seems the present administration might slash the budget further.

 

[Rashiminos]

NASA employees should think about revising their resumes.

 

[Formaldehyde]

NASA employees should think about revising their resumes.

Indeed. This is the end of the Apollo Program all over again.

 

[Racsoviale]

well the Chinese might be hireing space-scientists(yes my made up word for people doing awesome, but at times tedious work IN/WITH SPACE!!!)

but ever since the embarasment with EU/USA power sockets(?) I think a closer collaboration between ESA/Russia/NASA/JAXA is in order if anything serious is going to happen - more integrated teamwork.

BTW: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Space_Forces
This is awesome

unfortunately they dont have jetpacks and laserguns.....yet

 

[Lay_Lay]

NASA's future has never been certain. Space exploration is in its infancy. Many changes will come as we progress, including changes within the structures of the agencies - NASA, Air Force, Army, CIA, etc. These agencies will undergo changes as they occupy the general area around the Earth, moon, and Mars.

 

[Nylan]

NASA's future has never been certain. Space exploration is in its infancy. Many changes will come as we progress, including changes within the structures of the agencies - NASA, Air Force, Army, CIA, etc. These agencies will undergo changes as they occupy the general area around the Earth, moon, and Mars.

Well of course.

There's an article to address here.

 

[Masquerouge]

I think at this point the best hope the US space program has to be revitalized is through a crushing blow from China, a la Sputnik.

 

[Kraznaya]

I think at this point the best hope the US space program has to be revitalized is through a crushing blow from China, a la Sputnik.

It'll take a while for the Chinese to get to Mars.

 

[Winner]

I am so sick of the China hype. What have they accomplished in space so far what's so great compared to other main competitors? Yes, they took an old Russian design and created their own version of Soyuz - woohoo, great accomplishment.

NASA/ESA (with a contribution from Russia and the Japanese) are the only space powers doing a real science.

NASA has sent probes to every planet in the Solar System, ESA has sent probes to the Moon, the Halley comet (and another comets and asteroids), Mars, Venus, Saturn/Titan (with NASA), like NASA it has launched advanced monitoring satellites to the Earth orbit (Envisat, Planck) and the Herschel Space Observatory to the L2 point, and it has many other wonderful projects on the drawing board. And I am not mentioning the many observatories run by the two organizations on Earth.

NASA and ESA are doing about 90% of the real scientific work in space research and astronomy. Russia had/has some great projects, but the lack of funding means it can only realize them with NASA or ESA funding and cooperation. The Japanese have also sent probes beyond Earth-Moon system. India and China have so far only sent probes to Moon.

So why the hell do I keep hearing about a new US-Chinese space race? What is this crap? Compared to Europe or Russia, China has acomplished almost nothing in terms of space research. The idea that they could get to the Moon in ten years is beyond laughable.

--- /rant


Now, I really do think that NASA needs to abandon this "we'll do it all by ourselves" pretense. It has actually rebuffed European offer to develop the next generation of manned space ships together. How stupid was that? As a result, NASA will develop its Orion spaceship and ESA will be forced to develop its own space capsule (it has already begun with the plan to turn ATV into a manned spaceship) - two biggest space players are wasting their precious resources doing the exactly same thing because one of them continues to see manned space flight as some sort of pissing contest.

 

[Racsoviale]

haha I was not aware that NASA had substituted the russians with us europeans in the space race, maybe that is why we are working with the russians as well.

It seems moronic from a NASA standpoint to refuse our help, but maybe it has something to do with NASA being part of their airforce - hence the military wants monopoly.

 

[Winner]

It seems moronic from a NASA standpoint to refuse our help, but maybe it has something to do with NASA being part of their airforce - hence the military wants monopoly.

Good point, actually. ESA is a civilian space agency, while NASA is still an extension of US military (like the Russian and Chinese space agencies).

 

[Tee Kay]

So why the hell do I keep hearing about a new US-Chinese space race? What is thiscrap? Compared to Europe or Russia, China has acomplished almost nothing in terms of space research. The idea that they could get to the Moon in ten years is beyond laughable.

The United States took 12 years to get to the Moon from the time it launched its first satellite, seven years from the time it launched its first manned mission, and three years from the time it launched their first lunar orbitor. This is with inferior technology than what China have at its disposal now.

The Chinese certainly have the political will (albeit for other reasons than simply space exploration) to drive a space project forward, and establishing a presence in space is a matter of national pride. In the United States, space no longer captivates the public or the government like it did at the time of the moon landing. They're playing catch up with the US and ESA and there's a long way to go though.

 

[Winner]

The United States took 12 years to get to the Moon from the time it launched its first satellite, seven years from the time it launched its first manned mission, and three years from the time it launched their first lunar orbitor. This is with inferior technology than what China have at its disposal now.

In a completely different situation and with huge amount of resources allocated to the effort. It's not comparable.

The Chinese certainly have the political will (albeit for other reasons than simply space exploration) to drive a space project forward, and establishing a presence in space is a matter of national pride. In the United States, space no longer captivates the public or the government like it did at the time of the moon landing. They're playing catch up with the US and ESA and there's a long way to go though.

And many obstacles. Realistically speaking, they don't have a proper rocket to launch spaceship to the lunar orbit, they don't have a lunar lander, they don't have the money and experience and I really doubt any of that is going to change in the next ten years. National pride is one thing, realistic expectations of the Chinese leadership is another.

 

[Tee Kay]

In a completely different situation and with huge amount of resources allocated to the effort. It's not comparable.

True, China currently spends around a tenth of NASA's current budget on space exploration. Keep in mind though the technological difference between now and the 1960s.

And many obstacles. Realistically speaking, they don't have a proper rocket to launch spaceship to the lunar orbit, they don't have a lunar lander, they don't have the money and experience and I really doubt any of that is going to change in the next ten years. National pride is one thing, realistic expectations of the Chinese leadership is another.

Give them time. NASA only developed the Saturn V and the Apollo mere two years before the Apollo 11 landing.

 

[Winner]

True, China currently spends around a tenth of NASA's current budget on space exploration. Keep in mind though the technological difference between now and the 1960s.

What exactly? The laws of physics didn't change - you still need powerful rockets, big space ships and many days of travel to reach Moon. We have better materials and much more powerful electronics today, but it didn't change the way space flight works.

Plus, China has not a free access to the latest space technologies, so it either has to steal/copy them or develop them on its own.

Give them time. NASA only developed the Saturn V and the Apollo mere two years before the Apollo 11 landing.

It was a totally unacceptable risk by today's standards and it is impossible to do now. Modern space launchers take many years to develop (read the article, it mentions that even NASA is having problems with developing new-generation space launchers), even with computers and new materials. You simply can't compare the cold war situation with present day competition between any of the space powers.

And it still doesn't justify the China hype The media only talk about the Chinese plans, they don't mention any specific achievements.