Nate Silver is "thin and effeminate"

[Evie]

Owen Prove it. Forget Rush Limbaugh and find me Republican talking heads that insult peoples looks?

Fine Leoreth. The D+7 model of many of the polls that he often uses is wildly skewed based on the voter registration and enthusiasm gap. Understanding that weighting for other groups such as women vs men rich vs poor ect... makes it difficult to accurately weight for a political group. His 70% chance of Obama winning is off by 20%. Based on the numbers I've seen it is about a 50% toss up. Places like Wisconsin are seeing much larger early voter campaigns from the Republicans than were seen in 2008 and the independents swinging hard to Romney makes this very likely a turnout election and that is where that enthusiasm gap comes in.

I'm predicting a Romney win and when that happens it will prove Nate Silver very wrong.

What empirical data do you base your rejections of the vast majority of polls on?
How do you arrive at your conclusion on which polls (if any) should be rejected, and which polls (if any) should be embraced?
How do you go from the "numbers you've seen" to a 50-50 toss up? What method allows you to translate one into the other?
What fault, beyond "I don't like the polls he's using, I think they're wrong" do you find with Silver's process to go from this number to 70%?

That would be statistics-based cricitism. What you have posted is just "My guts say he's wrong", with a few numbers sprinikled to try to make it look statisticish. It's the equivalent of taping a fake 'stache to your face as a disguise.

 

[emzie]

Owen Prove it. Forget Rush Limbaugh and find me Republican talking heads that insult peoples looks?

Fine Leoreth. The D+7 model of many of the polls that he often uses is wildly skewed based on the voter registration and enthusiasm gap. Understanding that weighting for other groups such as women vs men rich vs poor ect... makes it difficult to accurately weight for a political group. His 70% chance of Obama winning is off by 20%. Based on the numbers I've seen it is about a 50% toss up. Places like Wisconsin are seeing much larger early voter campaigns from the Republicans than were seen in 2008 and the independents swinging hard to Romney makes this very likely a turnout election and that is where that enthusiasm gap comes in.

I'm predicting a Romney win and when that happens it will prove Nate Silver very wrong.

You know, it really wouldn't prove Nate Silver wrong. I know confidence intervals are very challenging things to some, but fivethirtyeight is categorically not predicting an Obama win.

What he's predicting is that if you held 4 elections under the exact same circumstances as 2012, Obama would win 3 of them and Romney would win 1. I cannot emphasise enough how different this is than predicting Obama will win.

It's perhaps more intuitive if you look at Colorado and Virginia on fivethirtyeight. Each state is right in the true tossup area of 50 percent. If Silver's model is accurate, then these state should over the long term trend of modeling, be coinflips. State-by-state odds should say that if you look at many elections, states that Silver weighs as being 70% Democrat actually go Democrat 70% of the time -- Republicans should still win 30% if Silver's confidence level is accurate. The fact that you don't understand this tells me that you don't really understand what you're talking about when you say the polls are skewed.

 

[History_Buff]

Well I think Nate Silver is a bad Pollster.

Nate Silver isn't a pollster.

 

[Leoreth]

I'm predicting a Romney win and when that happens it will prove Nate Silver very wrong.

I wasn't aware that Nate Silver gives Obama a 100% chance to win the election?

Romney winning can prove Silver's analysis right or wrong. Obama winning could also prove his analysis wrong. It all depends on the situation.

 

[AlpsStranger]

I wasn't aware that Nate Silver gives Obama a 100% chance to win the election?

Romney winning can prove Silver's analysis right or wrong. Obama winning could also prove his analysis wrong. It all depends on the situation.

It doesn't matter. Unless Nate Silver is like "ROMNEY HAS HUGE MOMENTUM AND IS A LOCK DEMOCRATS OVER GO REAGAN!" everyone will still want his head on a spike.