I'm personally in that weirdo group who would be fine with eschewing France for Benin or leaving out Sweden for the Sámi. I'm hoping Portugal won't be in the game this time round for this reason. It just feels like a different flavor of Spain.
As a side note, after reading Ken Follet's A Column of Fire I'm actually really hype that Catherine de' Medici is in the game. She was quite badass, just not well known.
I don't know that I'd go that far but new civs, leaders, abilities etc keep the expansions interesting. I'd be a lot less interested if the list had been nearly all old favourites returning.
I quite like CdM as a leader. She was effective ruler of France for a time. If they were gien an alt though I'd say go for one of the big names of French history but theres quite a few of those who have never appeared in a civ game. Phillip Augustus would be my choice.