Newsweek Poll

[ThePhysicist]

Wow. New poll, this time from gallup-
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-10-09-poll_x.htm
That's just ridiculus. 23% lead? If that were to hold, the Democrats would gain about 100 seats.

Obviously it greatly overstates the GOP's problems, but still....wow.

Godwynn, the polls before 1994 are very similar to what we're seeing today. The GOP had a 10% generic congressional ballot lead, Clinton was unpopular (though not this unpopular), etc. The thing is though, if you look at the predictions of political scientists the day before the 1994 election, you will notice 2 things-

1. They were very nearly correct at guessing the senate outcome
2. They were way off on the House. On average they predicted about a 20 seat gain for the republicans...they ended up adding more than 50.

So, the truth is we won't know until election day what will really happen (in the House atleast), but the similarities are convincing enough.

 

[Cuivienen]

A CNN poll gives the Dems a 21% lead. Again, generic ballot means halve the lead, but a 10.5% lead for the Dems (as opposed to a 3% lead for the GOP in 2004) is huge.

 

[Cuivienen]

Does anyone have some polls from before the 1994 election? It would be interesting the compare the predictions from both.

IIRC, the Republicans led about 10% in the generic ballot shortly before 1994. Then again, generic ballot meant more before the intense gerrymandering of the 2000 redistricting.

 

[Mark1031]

With no major change in the political dynamic ie. terrorist attack osama caught, Hillary and Nancy Pelosi caught in bed then the Dems pick up about 45 seats in the house and 7 in the senate to control both. The number of competative seats just keeps increasing for the Dems and Reagan Dems and Social conservatives (like my mom) are sickened by anything gay much less quasi-pedophilic and covering it up. My mom stoped going to catholic church after the priest thing. Loyality to politico's is significantly less than to one's life long religion I would think.