Yes, I can see that the future looks reasonably bright. There were a few turns in the last playtest where I felt rather demoralized after bomber losses, but I don't have that feeling here. It looks like I won't get the first Battle Group reinforcement, however. On the other hand, that seems a fair trade for an early attack on port facilities to gain advantage in the Battle of the Atlantic. (At least, I think I've pretty much won. Maybe you're lulling me into a false sense of security...)
I'd say the early game is balanced about where I want it/envisioned it. We'll see how mid- and late-game go, but I do think attacking deep targets beyond escort range should yield horrifying losses prompting you to build escorts that can bring the bombers home (I do note you haven't moved past the 14 bombers lost mark yet though). You do have targets in France where you can build some experience, test some things out, and get a better return on the Battle of the Atlantic as a reward, but you really don't have enough targets there to earn Battle Groups.
The first Battle Group is very hard to get (probably not impossible, as you're only 17 points away with two turns to do it) but in my mind that is a good thing because it should theoretically delay a serious invasion until at least mid-game. I'm basically going for:
Battle Group 1: Difficult to achieve
Battle Group 2: Depending on how things go, you would think this would be easier to get as the build-up is done, but it's still not guaranteed
Battle Group 3 and onward: Should almost be shoe-ins
I think this also gives the German player a little bit of hope and a way to break down the game into little 225 point segments. The better you do early, the longer you likely delay D-Day.
On that topic, there are a couple airbases that are producing Sunderlands, even though I don't have the tech for this. I presume this is on purpose, and not an oversight. However, at the moment, I can't temporarily switch to something else. Should I change the events so that those airbases can produce Sunderlands even if the tech is not available?
That's by design. My playtests against myself convinced me that if the Germans were to invest in 2 or 3 aircraft carriers off the bat, move their 109s over to France, and build a ton of Stukas, they could seize control of the Battle of the Atlantic. I figured if I made Sunderlands available in a city or two (but they HAD to be built there or you'd have to wait for the tech), then the Allied player would have to choose if they want to keep investing in those or swap them out, but if they invested, they'd have a better chance of keeping control in the Atlantic.
I didn't ultimately go with the aircraft carrier tactic here for three reasons: (1) It is quite a resource drain and I didn't have the luxury against you that I had against myself (knowing darn well I would not be invading "X"); (2) The implementation of the Experten point scoring system means I don't need to sink freighters to get my "hero" units; (3) Even if I sunk every freighter, which is unlikely, I still think the Allies would build up their strength in England relatively quickly, especially under your guidance.