Bucephalus
Shooting from the lip....
I've had a good long look at the save, and I think it's time to make a decision regarding Brennus.
The bad news is that Nationalism is still valued too highly for us to get it as part of an Alliance with Hittites - 250gpt + silks is still 'doubtful'.
The good news is that I was right about the principle - we can still get gpt deals as part of a treaty.
I think our decision involves the following factors:
Do we wait until Brennus has Nationalism or not?
If we do, we would quickly be facing Rifles, though an immediate declaration would see 3 or 4 cities fall quickly, and with sufficient Cavs we could absorb the inevitable losses.
We would need to make a snap decision whether to ally with Hittites (assuming that Nationalism is then affordable), or bust-up Brennus and try to get it as part of a peace deal.
A further risk factor would be if Brennus makes peace with Hittites before he gets Nationalism; he has access to Salt and Horses (and we can't get a trade embargo for love nor money) so he would quickly build up enough Cavs to alter the balance of power.
If we decide that land for tax-farms is more important long-term, then now would be the time to go; Brennus has no reserves of offensive units (he's been at war for so long), and I believe he would fold like a pack of cards to a concerted Cav rush.
Either way, I think it's time to start building up our gold reserves; it is my belief that stealing is going to be the most cost-effective method of acquiring techs once we have Espionage, until then our options are limited - I'm not a fan of overseas war before RP's.
Taking all of this in to consideration, my own opinion is as follows:
I believe we should hold our nerve for the moment, continuing to build Sammi's for immediate upgrade.
However, we should be on Red Alert; the moment that Celts acquire Nationalism, I vote we go, with whatever deal we judge in our best interests.
Ditto if they make peace with Hittites - immediate declaration and attack, using Combat Settlers to maximise gains in the shortest possible time frame.
I would ignore Entremont; it has Sistine (a prime objective) so we can't raze it, and trying to keep it would be pointless - the flip-risk would be enormous.
I would say leave it until last, along with whichever city has JS Bachs.
Since we are down to three active players, I'd be happy with a simple majority if we can't make a concensus.
The bad news is that Nationalism is still valued too highly for us to get it as part of an Alliance with Hittites - 250gpt + silks is still 'doubtful'.
The good news is that I was right about the principle - we can still get gpt deals as part of a treaty.
I think our decision involves the following factors:
Do we wait until Brennus has Nationalism or not?
If we do, we would quickly be facing Rifles, though an immediate declaration would see 3 or 4 cities fall quickly, and with sufficient Cavs we could absorb the inevitable losses.
We would need to make a snap decision whether to ally with Hittites (assuming that Nationalism is then affordable), or bust-up Brennus and try to get it as part of a peace deal.
A further risk factor would be if Brennus makes peace with Hittites before he gets Nationalism; he has access to Salt and Horses (and we can't get a trade embargo for love nor money) so he would quickly build up enough Cavs to alter the balance of power.
If we decide that land for tax-farms is more important long-term, then now would be the time to go; Brennus has no reserves of offensive units (he's been at war for so long), and I believe he would fold like a pack of cards to a concerted Cav rush.
Either way, I think it's time to start building up our gold reserves; it is my belief that stealing is going to be the most cost-effective method of acquiring techs once we have Espionage, until then our options are limited - I'm not a fan of overseas war before RP's.
Taking all of this in to consideration, my own opinion is as follows:
I believe we should hold our nerve for the moment, continuing to build Sammi's for immediate upgrade.
However, we should be on Red Alert; the moment that Celts acquire Nationalism, I vote we go, with whatever deal we judge in our best interests.
Ditto if they make peace with Hittites - immediate declaration and attack, using Combat Settlers to maximise gains in the shortest possible time frame.
I would ignore Entremont; it has Sistine (a prime objective) so we can't raze it, and trying to keep it would be pointless - the flip-risk would be enormous.
I would say leave it until last, along with whichever city has JS Bachs.
Since we are down to three active players, I'd be happy with a simple majority if we can't make a concensus.
I should be back and able to play by next Monday (April 16).
