Preparing for a possible invasion.

[tomasjj]

I'd rather build horses than catapults if there is still a chance of preventing a landing. The rolling blockade can shift one tile west and the landing zone can be blocked another turn though we'll have to use 2 workers.

For now I would continue on with Sistine's in The Treasury and switch The Chamber over to military. We can figure out where Cope's will go after the threat has passed.

Spend the 500+ gold to rush horses. Other ideas:

• Perhaps we should also rush the walls in The Lookout for 32g.
• We can have two warriors in the one-tile islands for 20g and two shields wasted. Not sure whether they should go to the northern island or the mainland.
• We could forego the library in The Greenhouse and rush a galley for 24g. Either that or waste 4 shields for a spear. Could then build/rush warriors there.
• I'd let the library finish in Chamsuri's Cove or even rush it for 20g. The border expansion would help.
• Not sure what is best for The Chamber. We'd finish a musket or temple in one. Also a barracks but that would waste 9 shields. I think I lean towards the musket.
• Horses would be rushed in: The Admirlaty (76g), The Igloo (will finish w/o rushing), The Silo (80g), The Institute (40g), The Areie (90g), The Aboretum (64g), The Meeting Room (60g), The New Yard (will finish w/o rushing), The Nursery (56g), The Pier (will finish w/o rushing), The Marina (16g), The Lodge (60g), The Shallows (108g), The Black Seal (116g). That's 14 for 766g! I'd forego the one in The Shallows way up north. That's 13 for 658g.

If we spend 658 for horses, 32 for walls, 20g for warriors, 24 for a galley and 20g for the library that's 754g out of 1238g which leaves 484g. We can shut off research and make 144gpt. If we let Free continue researching they can finish astronomy in 4 then they could work on chemistry and metallurgy.

We can currenly get chemistry in 5 turns with a 29gpt deficit. Four turns of 70% reseach then costs us 112g leaving us with 372g. However, with 16 more military units building next turn we incur an additional 32gpt in unit costs. Over five turns that is 160g. So this would make our margin 212g plus what we could make by reducing research the turn before getting chemistry plus what FREE and SABER would send us. This puts us in a position of limited rushing while we research our way to our unique unit.

I think it's better to turn off research and let FREE research for us. Here's where building ToE comes in. FREE gets us to metalurgy so we can concentrate on fending off BABE and then we repay them for the MAAP II imbalance by building ToE for the alliance.

Upon reading that, I found myself agreeing with every word.
Good analysis.

 

[Paul#42]

we are doing -57gpt right now, but once those 17 units are built next turn, we are at -91gpt. That's for 68 units, 33 of them are land combat units. If we want to do a complete blockade, it would be like 80 units necessary, that's another -100gpt.

We should wait two turn to see what the BABE galleys do, then we should rush another 10 horses and prepare a trap.

I'm against shutting research off before we approach zero and I'm completely against letting FREE research chemistry.

 

[donsig]

I really don't see how we can expect to research and fund a war effort. We're at -57gpt right now but could have been at +144gpt if we had shut off research. Research is costing us 200gpt which seems okay with those who say we can't survive without 50gpt from Free. If we truly cannot let FREE finish astronomy because we so desperately need the 50gpt then why are we clingling to the idea of finishing chemistry? Chemistry does get us one step closer to both metalurgy and military tradition but I'd use the same arguement that was brought up against allowing FREE to finish astronomy. If we don't last long enough to build h'watchas or cavalry, what's the point?

Guess I need to look and see what zyxy said elsewhere.

 

[Paul#42]

I'll post some thoughts about research later.

What crossed my mind is: The galleys we are facing down to our southwest are the ones that already have been around SABERland for quite a long time.

Their latest builds will probably come the shortest way and might hit us from an unsuspected direction.
We should watch for that too!

 

[Aigburth]

I'll post some thoughts about research later.

What crossed my mind is: The galleys we are facing down to our southwest are the ones that already have been around SABERland for quite a long time.

Their latest builds will probably come the shortest way and might hit us from an unsuspected direction.
We should watch for that too!

That is very true, referring back to my original analysis there are two routes for babe to reach us: -

Spoiler :

Beta 1 is slightly shorter but lands further away from our core than beta 2, in both routes we get some warning, (Lookout island for beta 1 and Saber for Beta 2).

Obviously we have to concentrate on the immediate threat to our south for now but you are right we need to be mindfull of the threat from our north.

 

[Niklas]

I really don't see how we can expect to research and fund a war effort. We're at -57gpt right now but could have been at +144gpt if we had shut off research. Research is costing us 200gpt which seems okay with those who say we can't survive without 50gpt from Free. If we truly cannot let FREE finish astronomy because we so desperately need the 50gpt then why are we clingling to the idea of finishing chemistry? Chemistry does get us one step closer to both metalurgy and military tradition but I'd use the same arguement that was brought up against allowing FREE to finish astronomy. If we don't last long enough to build h'watchas or cavalry, what's the point?

IMO we don't want to shut down our own research for the simple reason that we can get the money from FREE instead. Getting money from them will delay them somewhat, which will give us an edge in the longer run. Neither Astro nor Chemistry will help us with this particular threat. But our long-term research will take a hit because of the delay of building Unis (and some wonders). FREE could sail on ahead in many fields, so if we can slow them down some then all the better!

 

[General_W]

Good analysis Niklas. As I've argued elsewhere, our current course of action (taking the gold from FREE, agreed by consensus) is NOT the most efficient path (as Donsig has argued) but I maintain it is still the best way for us to go for the sake of flexibility… and for keeping FREE from totally running away from us in tech and maybe getting some funny ideas.

As for the possible Dual-Route BABE invasion… this is indeed something we'll need to watch for. Are our Pikes still headed for Subcommittee Island? I can't really tell from zyxy's last turn update.

I'd be a shame to get the next save and find some MW's parked on one of those mountains up there.
I think we should either block the coast now, or else move one of our galleys into advance scouting position, so we can get a couple turns notice to rush workers and block tiles if needed… if that's even possible? (It's been a while since I actually opened the save to look around)

EDIT: I just believe that Subcommittee Island is ultimately going to prove to be strategically very valuable, and now that the threat of a BABE invasion is much more real, the investment in blocking the coast seems even more prudent than before.

 

[zyxy]

We can block SC island by rushing a few warriors. Do we want that?

The pikes were heading back because they seem to be needed on the mainland. Also, I am uncertain of the way the Council wishes to defend SC island.

 

[General_W]

Ok – pikes coming home makes sense.

No surprise here, but I'd be in favor of blocking the coast of Subcommittee island with rushed warriors.
We can disband them for shields to help hurry along a harbor in The Lookout after the war is over.
I think the cost is worth it to safeguard a strategically very important location while our attention is primarily focused on the homeland.

 

[tomasjj]

Ok – pikes coming home makes sense.

No surprise here, but I'd be in favor of blocking the coast of Subcommittee island with rushed warriors.
We can disband them for shields to help hurry along a harbor in The Lookout after the war is over.
I think the cost is worth it to safeguard a strategically very important location while our attention is primarily focused on the homeland.

Yep. I agree on that too. How many more warriors do we need? 2?
If so, it is a low cost for keeping a very important location. It would be horrible if we lost it and BABE had a beachhead to attack our homelands.

 

[Paul#42]

Although this cripples our economy big time, I'd also agree to rush some reg warriors on SC island. Losing it will also hurt us big time...

 

[Niklas]

I agree as well, that island may be very important to us.

However, is it possible that we could have enough advance warning, and enough units to block the northern landing spots, so that we could wait and rush when we see the first galley up there?

 

[General_W]

I thought of that, but we'll need to rush the units, then have time to move them out to the coast... I don't think we can see far enough to have that much warning, can we?

 

[Niklas]

You are right, I checked the save. If they play it cool they could stand just outside our vision range, and with two moves they can reach pretty far, anywhere on that island.

But, if we assume that they halt at the sea tiles on the other side, which seems pretty likely, then they cannot unload on either of the two tiles between The Lookout and The Tower, or any of the two below The Lookout. We can't move two steps in a turn, so the southernmost mountain must be blocked anyway. That leaves the mountain SE of The Tower, the jungle S of The Tower, and the mountain S of The Lookout that they couldn't reach in one turn.

This means that we could wait until we see galleys across the waters before we rush the last three units - one each in the three towns. The one from The Tower goes SE, the one from The Lookout goes south and the one from The End of the World goes SE, while the one on that grass tile goes E. This means that we need 4 units right now, to block the southernmost mountain, as well as the three tiles on the SW and NW coasts of the island.

That is, if we can trust that they will halt before crossing...

 

[donsig]

IMO we don't want to shut down our own research for the simple reason that we can get the money from FREE instead. Getting money from them will delay them somewhat, which will give us an edge in the longer run. Neither Astro nor Chemistry will help us with this particular threat. But our long-term research will take a hit because of the delay of building Unis (and some wonders). FREE could sail on ahead in many fields, so if we can slow them down some then all the better!

I don't see how we are slowing FREE. We have an agreement in place that gets both of us to the next age at the same time. They cannot leave us behind if they live up to the agreement we have with them. Yes, they can build unis and we can't if we're invaded but does paying us gold stop them from doing that?

I'm not arguing that we forgive FREE from paying us, just give them time to pay. We may soon be in a position that we need FREE's gold and still have to shut off or lower our own research temporarily.

If we do get invaded it is important to still make progress towards metallurgy and military tradition. If we can't research properly do to need for gold (above and beyond what we will get from SABER and FREE) then we will need FREE to do it for us. We need to consider this carefully now because once they start a tech after astronomy they won't want to switch till they finish it.

It may be in our best interests to renegotiate MAAP II and let FREE work on the bottom path.

As for the northern island, if the pikes are headed back then we should get the island blocked.

 

[Paul#42]

The Babes have landed, the Babes have landed!

We left a gate open, two vet MW landed NE of The Nursery.

That's what should not have happened...

Now we have to dow them - or does anybody want to let them stay on our land for a turn letting them do the first real "aggressive" move?

First we will need an extension. We should at least send a formal letter to them convicting this act of aggression.

I vote on declaring in game and directly taking out these horsemen. Then we close the coastline again and rush more horses.

This is disappointing.

 

[peter grimes]

SCREENSHOTS, Please!!!

I'm not sure we should DOW... at least until I see a screenshot

 

[tomasjj]

Disappointing?

It was what we have been expecting for a couple of turns, wasn't it?

Try to keep cool.
Keep in mind that we wondered why Babe took so long to approach...meaning they had plenty of time to manouver their forces into position.
This first landing could very well be a feint, to draw a majority of our forces away from the main landing. Not saying this is most probable, but something we should consider, at least in light of them only landing 2 units.

Did they land on our land, or on the neutral pocket we left open?

 

[Paul#42]

Here you go...

I guess we are lucky it's just two MWs. I don't want to let pikes land there.
We'll probably get those pikes next turn, probably on the swamps near The Black Seal.

If we do not dow, those two MWs can cause a lot of trouble.
I'm sure, Wotan is willing to do the next step despite of our treaty. He would not have landed otherwise, he broke the treaty already in my eyes.

However he did not break the peace in-game so we now have to give him the benefit of some war happiness. That's why I wanted a worker on that tile.

Nevertheless I'm convinced we have to attack right away. Only a dead MW is a good MW...

Disappointing?

Disappointing that they managed to land without having to dow us.
I'd have loved to get the war happiness, not to give it...

 

[tomasjj]

I see what you meant now by disappointing, Paul.
I guess I never thought that we realistically would be able to block all the tiles anyway.