random events guide

If that was fixed in 3.17 then nevermind, I just remember hearing a lot about it on this forum. I don't really raze enough cities post democracy to realize if I just got unlucky though, so I assumed it was still a problem.
 
well - it was sorta fixed:
pre 3.17 it triggered always regardless of whether the player who got his city razed was running emancipation. Now it triggers always (if it is active) if the player who gets a city razed is running emancipation.
This one event is special in that it is not called from the usual random event code but from another python code that ensures that it actually is not randomly executed. They just wanted to have about 1/3 of games in which Emancipation is a little more of a deterrent to city razing :mischief:
 
thanks for your comments, PieceOfMind. true, .1% is a statistically significant chance. i wouldn't take .1% and say that it is impossible, but that is only on a single turn. if you cheated and reloaded and waited one turn to make that attack, all other things being equal you would, statistically certainly, win that battle. so i know that my argument is kind of convoluted, but try out these two math problems. they are basically the same question, but:

1+1/2+1/4+1/8+1/16...=?

and

4/1-4/3+4/5-4/7+4/9-4/11+4/13...=?
I appreciate your examples, but do you know you're talking to a mathematician here? ;) These are both examples of convergent series. The second one is interesting because its rate of convergence is much much slower than the first's.

I think it's interesting to point out, by the way, that actually 1.999... is by definition (as a well-define limit) equal to 2 as well. It is another example of a convergent series just like your first example. 1+0.9+0.09+0.009+... = 2. :D

If a real number can be represented by a repeated decimal expansion then it can be written as the limit of such a series. Numbers that cannot be written in this way include certain square roots, like sqrt(2), and are called the irrational numbers.

But whatever, the application of infinite series in this context is not really relevant. Each game is only a finite length anyway, so it's still reasonable to look at probabilities of events over 50 turns etc., like you already did.

My point was mainly that for some of the events you simply said something like "this will happen in 95% of your games" (an event with active number 95). Really, it's more accurate to say "the event will probably not occur in more than 95% of your games", or less correctly but more briefly, "the event will not occur in more than 95% of your games". It's possible the event that is active in 95% of games will still not happen very often at all if the weights of other eligible events are high.


what i'm saying is that if you fish for 20 turns, you might get a 50% of triggering an event any of those turns. it is not more or less likely that it will occur on the first or last turn. if you then waited 40 turns, for example, your odds would have increased to 75%, supposing that an event is in your game at all. but there is no more likelihood that the event will trigger on the first, middle or last turn than any other turn.

Yes
i think that maybe i have fallen for something like the inverse gambler's fallacy by believing that any event is any game at all. but, if you know about what your odds and such are, you can figure that if a event doesn't occur after a certain number of turns that it isn't in your game. the gambler's certainty: vegas wasn't built on winners.
Indeed! :goodjob: I will use that phrase next time in my never ending fight to convince people to generally avoid gambling.
i think that i can clear some of this up, although this is all just speculation based on speculations from the boards.

active: at the start of the game, the computer rolls a 100-sided die for each event. if the die comes up more than an event's active value, then the event is excluded from that particular game.

weight: this works kind of like gpp. say it's time for a gpp to pop, and the chances are like 95% scientist and 5% artist. i don't know how, but the computer decides to give you a great artist. whatever mechanism the computer used to decide this, though, is very likely the same as the one that it uses when picking which events to trigger. so let's say that you know, although you couldn't, that a random event was going to trigger on some turn. the computer would take the weights of all the events that have met their prereqs on that turn, throw them into a hat, and pick one. the weights have about as much influence as they do when choosing great people.

Yes well I know how weights work when deciding the event, but I was getting at the probability of the triggering of any event at all on a given turn. I didn't explain what I meant very clearly though so it's my fault.
It is the 7 different era values you listed below that are exactly what I was looking for. I had been wondering whether those era values instead depended on the number (and weights) of eligible events, and I had thought that the reason more events appeared in the late game was the there were simply more eligible events and/or the eligible events had a greater weight sum.

here is an actual example of what i'm talking about:
Whoa how did Schrödinger's cat come into this? Entanglement and theoretical physics is a whole nother kettle of fish! :)
ancient- 1%
classical- 2%
medieval- 4%
renaissance- 4%
industrial- 6%
modern- 8%
future- 10%
 
For checking for gold, do the game do that before or after your income from last turn is counted?

Do the inflation event count for one person or for two?
 
PieceOfMind: Whoa how did Schrödinger's cat come into this? Entanglement and theoretical physics is a whole nother kettle of fish!

nice umlaut;) you're right, it doesn't have anything to do with entanglement. but it has something to do with a dead cat.

say that your event is a dead cat. you leave it in a box with a "Geiger counter [and] ... a tiny bit of radioactive substance, so small, that perhaps in the course of the hour one of the atoms decays, but also, with equal probability, perhaps none." if you took that cat out after just a few minutes, chances are it would be alive. but if you left it in there for, like, 10 hours, chances are that it would be dead.

what i'm saying is that if you leave that cat or meet the prereqs for long enough, then the event will happen.

oyzar: For checking for gold, do the game do that before or after your income from last turn is counted?

Do the inflation event count for one person or for two?
let's find out; someone on the boards should know. however, i think that the game counts all of your income at the end of your turn, after modifiers and everything else. so, as soon as you hit return, the game crunches some numbers and you end up with some amount of :gold:. then on the next turn, if a random event is going to occur, it checks all of the ones available and sees if you have enough :gold: to qualify for which ones.

as for the second question, i think that each event can only be triggered once per game for all players, excluding some of the weird ones. so i'd say no, only one player could get the federal reserve event. but i could be wrong; comments welcome.
 
ah, your list is not complete, I should track. I had the video game quest, where some guy in my empire invented this game "civilization" and it got all the people addicted. I think the choice was sometin big, like +much research for a uni, +happy cause the videogame was supposedly awesome, and one for money cause it was gonna sell like crazy. Too bad I can't get it back anymore, guess it's useless for you if I don't have the actual numbers.

There is no doubt the preq must've been computers, cause you obv don't play it on a lawnmawer.
 
what i'm saying is that if you leave that cat or meet the prereqs for long enough, then the event will happen.
(emphasis added by me)

Exactly!

It is the extra qualifying conditions you put in the statement that I wanted to see.

Quoting your first post... (event 140)

very good payoff, but low probability. it only happens in 45% of your games, still hereditary rule is a likely civic to be running from the medieval through the renaissance period. not something i'd fish for, though.

Rather than saying it will only happen in 45% of your games, I'm suggesting instead saying "it is only active in 45% of your games." Or, "it is only possible in 45% of your games."



Talking about this reminds me of the whole deal about how holy cities are chosen when religions are founded. The code that picks the holy city has a huge bias against the capital, usually making the capital very very unlikely to be chosen. For all intents and purposes, one can normally say the capital will never be the holy city (unless it's the only city of course). However, when conditions are just right, it's possible for the capital to actually have exactly 0% chance of being the holy city. This arises out of a situation analogous to rolling two dice, one with the numbers 1 to 6 on it, and the other with the numbers 7 to 12 on it, and then asking which die rolled the higher number. We go from a situation where the capital is very unlikely to be chosen to a case where it's literally impossible for it to be chosen. Because of this, it's incorrect to say the capital is always possible but very unlikely, and also incorrect to say the capital is never chosen. Similarly with random events, it's possible that an event that is active, is impossible for the entire game due to not ever having the prereqs filled.
 
I ment in a team would both get it or just one person?
 
@ helemaalnicks: the event that you mentioned is part of solver's patch. i didn't include these in my analysis.
Event154
Civ Game
Prereq: COMPUTERS
Obsolete: None
Active/Weight: 80/100
Result:
1.+1 happy face in all your cities
2.all universities get +3 research
3.you receive gold (320 base)

@ oyzar: just one, until somebody proves me wrong.
 
@ ori: update coming soon.

edit: looking at your lists, i realize that i have gotten some of these like better coal. thanks helemaalnicks for making me have to waste another hour of my life;)
 
Quest9:
Crusade
Prereq: State religion but you do not control the Holy City
Obsolete: None
Active/Weight: 50/1000
Aim:
Declare War on the owner of the Holy City, stay in war until you conquer the Holy City
Result:
1.get 0.5*default number of players for this world size+1 conscript units (4 for standard)
2.build the shrine for your state religion
3.spread your state religion to default number of players for this world size cities (7 for standard)

even with its relatively high probability, this quest will not trigger in many games. i don't know why not, but i have never seen it. however, it has a rather good payoff, and capturing a foreign holy city is almost always a good idea. if you have a stack of units that you've been itching to use, the crusades will help you decide when to attack.
Wouldn't this also have the requirements that the owner of the holy city has to have a different state religion? That would make more sense historically, and also explain why you have never seen it in your games.
I just achieved this quest in my Earth 18 (Isabella) game. I was at war with Egypt, who had the Jewish Holy City, and I had the same state religion (along with everybody else in the Old World!) So, you do have to have the same religion. And to my surprise, you must not take the Holy City as your last conquest -- if you destroy the civilization while capturing it, apparently you've ended the war before conquering the holy city!
 
I just achieved this quest in my Earth 18 (Isabella) game. I was at war with Egypt, who had the Jewish Holy City, and I had the same state religion...
who declared war on whom? did you get this event on the turn that war was declared or several turns later?
... you must not take the Holy City as your last conquest -- if you destroy the civilization while capturing it, apparently you've ended the war before conquering the holy city!
this is clearly a bug, although i can see why it might be hard to code for in python. the game probably checks to see if you are still fulfilling the prereqs for the event before it registers that you have completed it. so like the game decides that war is over before it decides that a city is captured or a civ is destroyed.
 
Quest4:
Harbormaster
Prereq: COMPASS AND Map has at least 40% water tiles
Obsolete: STEAM_POWER or STEEL or SCIENTIFIC_METHOD or ARTILLERY
Active/Weight: 25/500
Aim:
Build default number of players for this world size harbors (7 for standard) AND half that number +1 caravels (4 for standard)
Result:
1.All Naval Units gain the Combat 1 promotion
2.All harbors gain +1 gold
3.All Naval Units gain the Navigation 1 promotion
I just completed this in BtS and controlled the GLH (mentioned in the quest log text), but didn't get offered Nav 1; was there some other condition I was supposed to fulfill?
 
Just got the Random Event that gives all Gunpowder units a free March promo. :cool:

I've never seen this one before; pretty potent stuff. And you're right about events not scaling properly on Huge/Marathon/18 Civs - planes are just constantly falling out of the skies, and brides are continuously being jilted and the inlaws ticked off over mixed marriages. :)
 
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