Referendum on Scottish Independence

[gay_Aleks]

*sigh* Oh well. Someday. NYC and Kansas.... booted.

Oh, also I thought of something that might make more English be supportive of your cause. What if you guys could get Obama to promise that if y'all vote yes and leave, we conquer Ireland, bring it freedom and democracy, and then gift it to the UK?

You could try that with Los Angeles, which will inevitably lead to Hollywood splitting off from the rest of Los Angeles, which will then result in San Francisco seceding.

 

[really]

On the currency: How much focus is this getting in Scotland?

It is a big question but I would see it as something to be negotiated after a yes vote as a trade off (Trident for the Pound or whatever) - the no side seem to be using it as a very big stick.

 

[Traitorfish]

It's probably the biggest issue right now, yeah. The daft thing is that it shouldn't be, because the British government aren't so stupid that they're going to cut off their nose just to spite Salmond. They will accept currency union, that's pretty much a given for anybody not prone to apocalyptic hysteria, it's just as you say a matter of exactly what is traded off for it. The problem for Salmond is that it's a point of uncertainty, an issue for which he can't offer a definite plan, so the No campaign is presenting it as reflecting an underlying lack of program on the SNP's part.

The Yes campaign have been arguing that if they're denied the Sterling, they can deny a share of the national debt, which is quite accurate: the national debt is carried by the Treasury as an institution, not by "Britain" as an abstract entity, so iScotland could no more be obliged to accept a portion of it than a parent could accept a child to take a share of the household debt when they leave home. Unfortunately, it's prove difficult to make this case forcefully without it being cast as blackmail. (Which is pretty perverse considering that "stay in the Union or we'll deliberately wreck your economy" is explicit Westminster policy.)

 

[Pangur Bán]

It has 35 Yes, 55 No and if you exclude the don’t knows that makes it 39 Yes/ 61 No.
I look forward to how the Nats are going to blame it on the Daily Mail this time.

Poll shows no movement actually.

Perhaps YouGov (who did the poll) are a Sassenachs plot to psychologically abuse the down trodden Scots.

Dare I suggest it, some English Daily Mail readers are so lacking in knowledge and deluded they get closer to the truth by attempting to straw man and stereotype their enemies than by research or reasoning.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/are-peter-kellner-and-yougov-yes.html

Our entire correspondence has been you posting stuff that is completely wrong along with silly or hateful anti-Scottish innuendo and bile. Maybe start thinking for yourself and being respectful?

 

[Pangur Bán]

On the currency: How much focus is this getting in Scotland?

It is a big question but I would see it as something to be negotiated after a yes vote as a trade off (Trident for the Pound or whatever) - the no side seem to be using it as a very big stick.

It's all about creating uncertainty and fear. If they can give the Scots the impression that there's no viable option that doesn't come with the risk of armageddon, the 'Middle' grounders are more likely to vote no. It basically comes down to the fact that almost all 'Scottish' media outlets are owned or controled in London, and that all but one media outlet (the Sunday Herald) in Scotland is anti-independence. So the media focuses on issues it believes are weakest to Yes. If all the media were controlled by nationalists, we'd be taking about oil, immigration and public services every day.

 

[Borachio]

"stay in the Union or we'll deliberately wreck your economy" is explicit Westminster policy.)

You really think this is true?

Once Scottish MPs leave Westminster (and surely they must when Scotland achieves independence) isn't that the end of Labour as a political force to be reckoned with in England? Probably in Scotland too, since Scottish Labour represents a protest vote against Westminster rather than conviction.

(Cameron, Blair, Brown, Hamilton - all good Scottish names, btw.)

 

[Traitorfish]

You really think this is true?

I don't think they're going to carry it out, if that's what you mean. But the claims that Scotland will be refused a currency union, will be refused entry into the EU, and so on, represent nothing less than threats of economic violence by Westminster. That they're delivered in a passive doesn't change that.

Once Scottish MPs leave Westminster (and surely they must when Scotland achieves independence) isn't that the end of Labour as a political force to be reckoned with in England?

Probably, in the short term. I suspect they'll be some sort of long-term reshuffling that will see Labour re-emerge, because the Tories aren't in any position to rule as a dominant party, there's no way the Liberal Democrats are going to take Labour place, and the Westminster just isn't built to support a one-and-two-halves party system. Perhaps Labour will finally bother appeal to the working class voters who could quite easily sweep it into power at every election, if only they had reason to believe that casting a ballot was worth the effort- but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Probably in Scotland too, since Scottish Labour represents a protest vote against Westminster rather than conviction.

I don't think that's true. If you want to protest Westminster, you vote SNP, who have the same vaguely social democratic policies as Labour, but with an explicitly anti-Westminster slant.

If anything, independence will probably be a boon to Scottish Labour, because they'll be free of the shackles of the Westminster party, which means they can advocate a more definitely social democratic policy and have it taken seriously. There's already a strong minority in the Labour Party who support independence, and the distance between the SNP's ~40% of the electoral vote and the 50%+1 to secure a "Yes" will be made of working class Labour-voters. The problem is, this will involve the current Unionist leadership getting the heave-ho, so there's no way the Party can recognise this explicitly.

Long-term, I think the party-system you'd be looking at in iScotland will see Labour and the SNP as major parties, the former as centre-left social democrats, the latter as centrist liberals. The Conservatives will continue to lurk on the right, while the Greens will probably secure a presence on the left as the SNP sheds its progressive vote. The Liberal Democrats are pretty much done for: their place in Scottish politics was always as the voice of the Highlands & Isles, too rural for Labour but too poor for the Tories, and the SNP have near-totally usurped them in that role. I think their best prospect is a merge with the Conservatives, perhaps reviving the old "Liberal Unionist" banner?

 

[Borachio]

I don't think they're going to carry it out, if that's what you mean. But the claims that Scotland will be refused a currency union, will be refused entry into the EU, and so on, represent nothing less than threats of economic violence by Westminster. That they're delivered in a passive doesn't change that.

I don't think that's true. If you want to protest Westminster, you vote SNP, who have the same vaguely social democratic policies as Labour, but with an explicitly anti-Westminster slant.

If anything, independence will probably be a boon to Scottish Labour, because they'll be free of the shackles of the Westminster party, which means they can advocate a more definitely social democratic policy and have it taken seriously. There's already a strong minority in the Labour Party who support independence, and the distance between the SNP's ~40% of the electoral vote and the 50%+1 to secure a "Yes" will be made of working class Labour-voters. The problem is, this will involve the current Unionist leadership getting the heave-ho, so there's no way the Party can recognise this explicitly.

Long-term, I think the party-system you'd be looking at in iScotland will see Labour and the SNP as major parties, the former as centre--left social democrats, the latter as centrist liberals. The Conservatives will continue to lurk on the right, while the Greens will probably secure a presence on the left as the SNP sheds its progressive vote. The Liberal Democrats are pretty much done for: their place in Scottish politics was always as the voice of the Highlands & Isles, too rural for Labour but too poor for the Tories, and the SNP have near-totally usurped them in that role. I think their best prospect is a merge with the Conservatives, perhaps reviving the old "Liberal Unionist" banner?

Ah well. OK. I guess what I know of Scottish politics is... not a lot. Not that I know much about any politics, really.

 

[Hydra99]

I know nothing about Scottish politics but I am finding this interesting. With regards to them having to apply to join the EU, what happened with the reunification of Germany?
I keep reading polls that say comnpletely different things so it'll be interesting to see how things go, I'd like to know how they carry out these polls and whether they really capture the general feeling of young people.

 

[Samson]

It's probably the biggest issue right now, yeah. The daft thing is that it shouldn't be, because the British government aren't so stupid that they're going to cut off their nose just to spite Salmond. They will accept currency union, that's pretty much a given for anybody not prone to apocalyptic hysteria, it's just as you say a matter of exactly what is traded off for it. The problem for Salmond is that it's a point of uncertainty, an issue for which he can't offer a definite plan, so the No campaign is presenting it as reflecting an underlying lack of program on the SNP's part.

The Yes campaign have been arguing that if they're denied the Sterling, they can deny a share of the national debt, which is quite accurate: the national debt is carried by the Treasury as an institution, not by "Britain" as an abstract entity, so iScotland could no more be obliged to accept a portion of it than a parent could accept a child to take a share of the household debt when they leave home. Unfortunately, it's prove difficult to make this case forcefully without it being cast as blackmail. (Which is pretty perverse considering that "stay in the Union or we'll deliberately wreck your economy" is explicit Westminster policy.)

There has definitely been some of this. Another point that has been made, possibly a stronger point, is how much influence would Scotland have with the bank of England. I do not know how it could be reconciled, if say Scotland's economy is overheating and England's is stagnating how do we decide what the interest rate should be. I cannot see Westminster letting Scotland decide, and it would not be good for Scotland for England to decide. With the Euro at least there is a structure for the central bank to try and choose the "best for everyone", that does not exist currently for Sterling and I do not see a great incentive to create one.

 

[warpus]

I don't think they're going to carry it out, if that's what you mean.

I think the EU would force you guys to apply for membership and go through all the regular hoops that new countries have to go through, if they want to join. Spain will for sure want something like that to be in place, as well as several other countries.

Although it would make far less sense to make a country that's already using the Euro to apply to use it again. But I suppose it makes a bit of sense, as the financial situation is going to dramatically change after independence. (right?)

 

[Traitorfish]

I think the EU would force you guys to apply for membership and go through all the regular hoops that new countries have to go through, if they want to join. Spain will for sure want something like that to be in place, as well as several other countries.

People say this is a lot, but the only reason we're ever given is "Spain will demand it". But when did the rest of Europe start taking a serious interest in what Spain wants? The UK certainly doesn't, or it would relinquish Gibraltar. Germany and France haven't given much indication of caring, or they'd start leaning on the UK. Spain isn't really in a position to demand anything from anybody, and although its government seems given to bluster, I don't know how far they'd be willing to push their luck over this.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

See, this is why the English have such a poor reputation. You boast that less than 40% of Scots want independence, but you merrily dismiss the other 60% as the same "whinging, whining minorities". That's how you express your solidarity with your co-Unionists?
If these polls prove anything, it's that 60% of Scots should spend more time conversing with Englishmen, so they might learn how things really stand between our brother-nations.

I have absolutely no truck with the vast majority of the Scots, including most who intend to vote Yes in September. No, it is the small minority of NastyNats that I was referring to. Every country has its share of Nasties – we have the EDL, BNP etc; you have the NastyNats. We come across them on line all the time. These are minorities to be despised in any country I think you will agree.

And I am not sure I would describe myself (as you do) as a Unionist btw. I am quite ambivalent about how the vote goes next month.

I can see advantages in a big No vote (39-61 say) so we can carry on being the Great Britain that we are at the mo. The best thing would be that it should put a stop for at least a generation or so to the divisive, nasty Nats – divisive for Scotland even more than for the UK IMO. I am sure many, many Yes voters would agree with me on that, never mind the No voters.

As for a Yes vote, I can see advantages (after the initial few months of shock) for England being more independent. In a year or so we down here will mostly carry on as before having transferred our assets south and changed the way we go about our daily life. (I live about 25 miles from the Scottish border, so no more trips up there for me, sadly).

The one result I do not want is a close No vote – say 49:51. This will mean the neverendum that has gone on forever will go on, and on, and on for even longer. Scotland (and the UK) will become even more divided as we listen to Herr Salmond and his jackboot cybernats for several more years until another referendum takes place. That will be truly awful.

So here’s for a big No or a Yes of any size.

Poll shows no movement actually.

Precisely

Dare I suggest it, some English Daily Mail readers are so lacking in knowledge and deluded they get closer to the truth by attempting to straw man and stereotype their enemies than by research or reasoning.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/are-peter-kellner-and-yougov-yes.html

Interesting link, thanks.

Our entire correspondence has been you posting stuff that is completely wrong along with silly or hateful anti-Scottish innuendo and bile. Maybe start thinking for yourself and being respectful?

Your bile outweighs mine about 10 to one methinks.

 

[Traitorfish]

You're equating the SNP to the BNP? Really?

That barely even deserves this scoffing dismissal.

 

[bhsup]

Will Scotland keep Lizzie, abolish the monarchy completely, or resurrect the Stuart line? Are there any living Stuarts??

 

[Mega Tsunami]

I've heard plenty of talk from silly English lefties that when Scotland achieves independence that a big chunk of the North should go along with it.
What do you think about that?

I live in the North and we have more chance of flying to the moon than joining Scotland. I would say there was more chance of Southern Scotland joining England than the other way round.

 

[Tahuti]

You're equating the SNP to the BNP? Really?

That barely even deserves this scoffing dismissal.

Hey, they got National Party in it! Or did you nazi it?

 

[Mega Tsunami]

You're equating the SNP to the BNP? Really?

That barely even deserves this scoffing dismissal.

No, not all Nats are nasty by any means. Just some (a minority).

 

[Traitorfish]

Will Scotland keep Lizzie, abolish the monarchy completely, or resurrect the Stuart line? Are there any living Stuarts??

Short-term, we'll be keeping Lizzy. That's one of the issues around which there's been really no public debate, which I find a little disappointing, but it's understandable from a strategic point of view.

There are no surviving Stuarts by that name, but the heir to the Jacobite succession is currently Franz von Bayern, the Duke of Bavaria. Franz has refused to comment on the issue previously, which technically means he hasn't said no...

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Will Scotland keep Lizzie, abolish the monarchy completely, or resurrect the Stuart line? Are there any living Stuarts??

They plan to keep her for the time being. If they decided to go Republican on day one they would probably lose the poll about 20:80