Referendum on Scottish Independence

[Alassius]

Yes were probably ahead at the until the last week/10 days of fear bombardment.

So you are saying that the polls have been underestimating Yes, until the last week/10 days when they suddenly started underestimating No?

Bear in mind that a 10% No lead is pretty much the average of polls since March.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2014

Both. And most of them believed that because their information was mediated through a media that was controlled outside of Scotland and almost entirely hostile to independence; not only was it hostile, it was also in large part sneeringly hostile. And indeed, BBC aside, was openly & proudly hostile.

That's not a healthy democracy.

Sneering hostile media controlled outside of Scotland such as, I don't know, The Scotsman and The Herald?

 

[Pangur Bán]

So you are saying that the polls have been underestimating Yes, until the last week/10 days when they suddenly started underestimating No?

Bear in mind that a 10% No lead is pretty much the average of polls since March.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014#2014

We're talking about a little over 5-6% of people here, wavering. That's not very big. The polls got it right. And on that basis I think Yes would have won if the vote was 10 days ago (not just the Yougov poll btw, but private campaign polling); it's counter-factual of course, and I might be 'wrong'. I think the fear-mongering also depressed turnout among the Yes demographics by undermining the message of hope.

 

[Mouthwash]

I hate it when my posts get buried by being the last one on the page.

 

[Borachio]

Do you? I find it's the best place for mine.

And the answer to your question was: probably not. 16 and 17 year olds are notoriously fickle the nearer to retirement age they get.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Sneering hostile media controlled outside of Scotland such as, I don't know, The Scotsman and The Herald?

The Scotsman is part of a London chain of newspapers. The circulations of these papers are minuscule & they produced almost no original story. What would be your point anyway? Because these papers back No 'freely' that its OK if the rest of the media bombards the population with outside propaganda? Think about it. You can be Noer and a democrat too; if you are happy to legitimize anti-democratic structures because they happen to suit you in one place, you'll find yourself in a weak position when they are against you in another.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Alassius refers to "this kind of intimidation". It's not a grammatical quirk of the English language, he's pretty much literally stating that intimidation took place. He clarifies that he doesn't mean voter intimidation in the usual sense, yes, but it remains on some level an accusation of No voters by Yes voters, and to a lesser extent of Yes voters by No voters, however non-deliberate or indirect, and that seems to me a stronger claim than the evidence given, that people reported feeling intimidated, supports.

I think the intimidation he was speaking of was just to show that the Yes camp had been more noisy and vocal, which was in turn in order to explain the "the silent have spoken" comment (or whatever it was). Whether they were actually being deliberately intimidating isn't relevant to what he was saying.

 

[Tigranes]

Is it worthwhile to note that 71% of 16 to 17 year-olds voted in favor of independence?

They had to be excluded in a first place. How can you let highschoolers to decide about the permanent future of their country?

 

[Pangur Bán]

Interesting graph:

 

[Mouthwash]

They had to be excluded in a first place. How can you let highschoolers to decide about the permanent future of their country?

How does one miss the point so completely?

 

[Plotinus]

It would be naieve to suggest there was no intimidation going on.

It would also be naive to assume that a "Yes" supporter wrote that.

Also, I have to add that this government has overseen the only two referendums that I remember in this country, and both have proven disappointingly dull. I'd say that I hope the next one turns out more interesting, but since that will probably on EU membership, that's the one where I would want to retain the status quo. Evidently I'm becoming dull too.

 

[Alassius]

We're talking about a little over 5-6% of people here, wavering. That's not very big. The polls got it right. And on that basis I think Yes would have won if the vote was 10 days ago (not just the Yougov poll btw, but private campaign polling); it's counter-factual of course, and I might be 'wrong'. I think the fear-mongering also depressed turnout among the Yes demographics by undermining the message of hope.

Well, the difficult part is to quality those effect. I'd say "intimidation" of Yes voters existed, but I wouldn't say it changed the outcome.

My feeling is that the No campaign managed to stop the Yes surge, by countering the sudden realisation of "guys, it's not a protest vote any more, we can actually do this", but it wasn't able to generate additional votes. The last polls before the day had similar numbers as polls right before YouGov's 2% Yes lead (4%, 1%, 6%, and 6% No lead).

The ICM poll of 7% Yes lead was acknowledged as an abnormal outlier by ICM itself. The YouGov poll was probably an extreme (but more valid) outlier from the average of 4% around that time. The 4% average was underestimating the Shy Nos by 5%, since the polls on the 16th and 17th had 4-5% No lead, and the actual result had 10%. I'm guessing that the 5% Shy No factor was persistent, so the true voting intentions in July was a 15% No lead. I can't see how the bias across the polls could have changed.

The above is purely an amateur's guesswork, so you are no more wrong than me!

The Scotsman is part of a London chain of newspapers. The circulations of these papers are minuscule & they produced almost no original story. What would be your point anyway? Because these papers back No 'freely' that its OK if the rest of the media bombards the population with outside propaganda? Think about it. You can be Noer and a democrat too; if you are happy to legitimize anti-democratic structures because they happen to suit you in one place, you'll find yourself in a weak position when they are against you in another.

What about The Herald then? Have they also been sneering hostile to Yes?

You can't say it's ok if you happen to agree with outside propaganda. Neither can you dismiss an opinion as propaganda because you happen to disagree with it. Whether or not it's propaganda, you need to argue against its facts and logic. It is possible to counter even the most horrible propaganda this way. But never dismiss an opinion based on your judgement that it's propaganda. That is, in fact, one of the most effective methods used by real propagandists.

Is it worthwhile to note that 71% of 16 to 17 year-olds voted in favor of independence?

Not enough to tip the balance!

 

[Tigranes]

How does one miss the point so completely?

Do elaborate.

It would also be naive to assume that a "Yes" supporter wrote that.

Most Yes supporters do sound pretty naive. And aggressive. Subtract the passion from Salmond -- what will be left there for Scotts? His economy degree?

 

[Pangur Bán]

What about The Herald then? Have they also been sneering hostile to Yes?

You can't say it's ok if you happen to agree with outside propaganda. Neither can you dismiss an opinion as propaganda because you happen to disagree with it. Whether or not it's propaganda, you need to argue against its facts and logic. It is possible to counter even the most horrible propaganda this way. But never dismiss an opinion based on your judgement that it's propaganda. That is, in fact, one of the most effective methods used by real propagandists.

Not enough to tip the balance!

The Herald's political editor is hostile to the SNP. But the Herald was free. The owners of both Herald & Sunday Herald seem to have allowed their editors to take their own decisions, the Herald doing a No and the Sunday Herald being the lone Yes in the media landscape. It should be like that.

And btw I don't use the term 'propaganda' to purely to dismiss alternative opinions. You have to understand that from the point of view of the politicians (and others) in control, all information going downwards is propaganda (they call it PR or 'Public Relations'). They call their powerful friends to make statements, or have press conferences smearing the other side, and so forth; we down in ant land internalize either message and debate about it assuming the underlying principle is rationality. It's not. The great shame is that our rulers understand that very well, most of us ants do not.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Glasgow's No grassroots campaign celebrating:
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10202433758517846

<--That's smear but unlike most of the smear has a reality.

If the media had been Yes supporting the smear would just have made itself.

 

[Borachio]

Well, as they say: "It's all over, bar the shouting".

 

[Pangur Bán]

Things seeming to get bad in Glasgow. Loyalists (hard-core Rangers fans basically) have been gathering in George Square in Glasgow, have chased off Yes supporters (who are mostly student types), and are engaged in loud aggressive behaviour. But apparently, according to STV, Yes supporters are coming from elsewhere to back their fellows up.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f0a_1411043660
https://t.co/NX7xgcx8XF


Link to video.

 

[Quackers]

It would also be naive to assume that a "Yes" supporter wrote that.

Well we can't know for sure but I think we can apply the simple solution principle here, it is probably some dumb "yes" voter.

Also, I have to add that this government has overseen the only two referendums that I remember in this country, and both have proven disappointingly dull. I'd say that I hope the next one turns out more interesting, but since that will probably on EU membership, that's the one where I would want to retain the status quo. Evidently I'm becoming dull too.

Yes we ought to decide referenda on the most exciting option...

 

[luiz]

Interesting graph:

Hum, what's the matter with 18-24 year olds?

 

[Borachio]

Too anxious about their immediate future, perhaps? The last 6 years have surely given them a certain perspective, as they were just starting out on their careers.

 

[luiz]

Too anxious about their immediate future, perhaps? The last 6 years have surely given them a certain perspective, as they were just starting out on their careers.

It's funny how they completely broke the otherwise stable trend, though. If they behaved like other age groups something like 65% of them should have voted for independence.