Referendum on Scottish Independence

[Benefactor]

So, how soon will we see yet another attempt at a Independence Referendum from Scotland?

Never! We'll all have been uploaded into immortal machine bodies that are above such petty concerns long before they can make another realistic attempt at seceding.

 

[Borachio]

I suspect that this was their best opportunity. At a later time, the benefits of North Sea oil will be less. And the degree of devolution is likely to be more advanced. Both undermining the desire of Scots for independence.

But who knows? Surely not I.

 

[Browd]

Losing now, and waiting, also allows pro-independence advocates to see how much further devolution actually happens, and how well it scratches the "independence itch" for some/many voters.

 

[gay_Aleks]

Thing is, North Sea oil will be inevitably gone. Why would the Brits want the Scottish, in that case? Is it so that they can repeat over and over in their minds that the British Empire is alive and kicking?

 

[Mise]

You talk about Brits and Scots as if they couldn't be the same thing.

 

[gay_Aleks]

Well, they don't want to. At least, one party does not desire that.

 

[GinandTonic]

There was just a vote relating to that...

 

[really]

I suspect that this was their best opportunity. At a later time, the benefits of North Sea oil will be less. And the degree of devolution is likely to be more advanced. Both undermining the desire of Scots for independence.

But who knows? Surely not I.

Diminished oil could force more sustainable economics maybe?
Successful devolution could also prompt the question: why do we need the UK at all?

Edit: If it happens it is a long way off - 30+ years.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Two interesting polls out today:

It appears all that ageism we have heard about the indyref has been misplaced, with only the 25-39 age group voting yes.

Taken from the Herald:
Full indyref survey reveals young voters voted No and only 25-39 age group said Yes
THE elderly did not rob the young of an independent Scotland, according to YouGov's final poll of how Scotland voted in the independence referendum.
Their study of 3,188 voters showed that 51 per cent of those aged between 16 and 24 voted No. It also revealed that more than one in five SNP supporters turned their backs on independence.
The breakdown has come from YouGov's referendum night poll that predicted a No win with 54 per cent of the vote. Some 55.3 per cent voted against independence in the official vote


And from the Guardian it would appear the Welsh are not interested in independence:

Just 3% back Welsh independence
The number of people in Wales who want the country to become independent has plunged to just 3%, the lowest recorded level, according to a poll.
In recent years the number wishing to see the country break away from the UK has held steady at around or just under 10% and the dramatic drop following the rejection of independence in Scotland is a blow to nationalists in Wales.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/24/3-per-cent-back-welsh-independence

 

[Pangur Bán]

Two interesting polls out today:

It appears all that ageism we have heard about the indyref has been misplaced, with only the 25-39 age group voting yes.

Taken from the Herald:
Full indyref survey reveals young voters voted No and only 25-39 age group said Yes
THE elderly did not rob the young of an independent Scotland, according to YouGov's final poll of how Scotland voted in the independence referendum

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the summary is tendentious and the headline is inaccurate. The poll's finding are very similar to Lord Ashcroft's and show that the eldery voted no while the young voted Yes, they've just fiddled the age groups to get the presentation they wanted.

Interesting that the poll shows that 51% of Scottish-born voters voted Yes.

 

[Flying Pig]

71% of 16 and 17 year olds voted yes, while only around half of those from 16 to 25 did. That means a fairly significant number (around 60%?) from 18 to 25 voted no. So it's probably fair enough to say that young voters - especially those who are young enough to be young but old enough to have an idea of most of the issues at stake - rejected independence.

 

[Pangur Bán]

71% of 16 and 17 year olds voted yes, while only around half of those from 16 to 25 did. That means a fairly significant number (around 60%?) from 18 to 25 voted no. So it's probably fair enough to say that young voters - especially those who are young enough to be young but old enough to have an idea of most of the issues at stake - rejected independence.

Not quite. Ashcroft had 71% of 16 to 18 year olds voting yes, but 52% of 18 to 24 voting No. If you combined the two as YouGov does it is virtually identical to Ashcroft's tally, both suggesting around 50-50 split for 16-to-25 year old group.

The 18 to 24 age group is tilted that way because of Scottish university students leaving Scotland and rUK students registering in Scotland.

 

[Flying Pig]

Surely that makes turnout from the very low age group tiny, though? If two years' worth of people only skewed the other six years' by two percentage points with such a big margin, then there can't have been many at all. At any rate, it's starting to make any claim that 'the young' wanted independence flimsy at best. One can hardly talk of 'a resounding 50% (+/1%)'

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the summary is tendentious and the headline is inaccurate. The poll's finding are very similar to Lord Ashcroft's and show that the eldery voted no while the young voted Yes, they've just fiddled the age groups to get the presentation they wanted.

So are you saying 16-24 are not ‘Young’. Who exactly is being tendentious here?

Which bit of “51 per cent of those aged between 16 and 24 voted No” do you not understand?

 

[Farm Boy]

Not quite. Ashcroft had 71% of 16 to 18 year olds voting yes, but 52% of 18 to 24 voting No. If you combined the two as YouGov does it is virtually identical to Ashcroft's tally, both suggesting around 50-50 split for 16-to-25 year old group.

The 18 to 24 age group is tilted that way because of Scottish university students leaving Scotland and rUK students registering in Scotland.

So it's carpet baggers? Or that sorta general vibe? This one might be more for TF, not sure. I'm more interested in the "feel feels" after this thing more than anything else really.

 

[gay_Aleks]

That would mean there's inner immigration inside UK, where people who lived in England migrated to Scotland.

And they're like, a lot.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Surely that makes turnout from the very low age group tiny, though? If two years' worth of people only skewed the other six years' by two percentage points with such a big margin, then there can't have been many at all. At any rate, it's starting to make any claim that 'the young' wanted independence flimsy at best. One can hardly talk of 'a resounding 50% (+/1%)'

Indeed not. It depends how you present it. But still Over-65s voted No, Under-65s voted Yes; when it's Over-55s v. Under-55s, the contrast is quite stark & much more resounding. The value of analyzing particular age-groups becomes more & more limited the smaller you make the range, because the sample sizes aren't credible.

The reason it matters especially to many is the role of the media; the age-groups dependent on mass media voted heavily No, and the age groups less dependent voted marginally Yes.

 

[Flying Pig]

Indeed. Nevertheless, if you say that young people are 'younger than x' and make x any larger than 17, it becomes impossible to say that young people voted for independence. Likewise, if you want to claim that 'the old voted in opposition to the young', you have to make 'the old' start at 19.

 

[Oruc]

Indeed not. It depends how you present it. But still Over-65s voted No, Under-65s voted Yes; when it's Over-55s v. Under-55s, the contrast is quite stark & much more resounding. The value of analyzing particular age-groups becomes more & more limited the smaller you make the range, because the sample sizes aren't credible.

So? They voted in referendum? Should only those who intend to vote correctly be allowed to cast their vote? Why not just abandoning voting altogether take the decision making away from the mass it will save you the trouble.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Oruc, why not read the conversation instead of butting in at a random point saying 'so'? For your answer, read the preceding posts.