Referendum on Scottish Independence

[GinandTonic]

On the issue of 51% of Scottish born voters voting for independence it would seem very likely that Scottish born residents of the other home nations would equally have been more likely to vote for the union.

 

[Borachio]

What is bolded I don't even

The point is, I think, that although the elderly die (as nature intended) there's always the next cohort waiting to take their place, becoming the elderly in their turn. So in this sense, the elderly remain.

Additionally, people's politics tend, overall, to become more conservative the older they get. So that, even if someone votes progressively (in this case "yes") when they're younger, they are more likely to vote "no" when they're become the current elderly.

Yes? No? Maybe?

 

[Mega Tsunami]

@Borachio - Yes, that is what I meant.

Edit: Not just that - many English retire to Scotland - cheaper houses, better elderly care etc. and they are almost bound to vote No.

I don't think this map of the possible Balkanisation of Europe (if Scotland had Voted Yes)
has been posted:

 

[Plotinus]

Occitania. Seriously?

Possible Balkanisation of Europe surely doesn't necessarily translate into probable Balkanisation, even if Scotland had voted "yes".

 

[JohannaK]

Plus Aragón. To say that either is likely to secede at all is a gross overstatement. Maybe in a few decades or centuries.

 

[Mise]

http://worldfootballcup.org/

They have their own football tournament!

 

[JohannaK]

This is a joke, rite?

 

[Mise]

It's a real thing! After beating South Ossetia in the semis, Countea de Nissa (County of Nice, France) went on to win the tournament in a thrilling 5-3 victory over the Ellan Vannin (Isle of Mann, UK) in the final.

 

[JohannaK]

Where's Catalonia, at any rate?

(EDIT: Where did the suicide smiley go?)

 

[Mise]

I guess the Catalan FA isn't part of ConIFA (the tournament's organisers).

 

[JohannaK]

Well, the Spanish government won't let Catalonia have its own sports federations except in some minoritary sports. OTOH, a Catalan football team would probably have potential to be in real competitions, with Valdés, Piqué, Alba, Xavi and Busquets (to mention the ones I can think of right now)

 

[Tahuti]

Nukes are significantly more cost effective than conventional arms once the technological hurdles have been met. And those hurdles are getting less formidable rapidly.

I don't think Singapore has significant incentive to arm itself with nukes. Likewise attacking Singapore with nukes would simply be overkill that would not be worth it.

 

[Flying Pig]

One might say the same about North Korea.

 

[Tahuti]

One might say the same about North Korea.

North Korea is propped up by the United States, as weird as it may sound.

 

[SeekTruthFromFacts]

I don't think Singapore has significant incentive to arm itself with nukes. Likewise attacking Singapore with nukes would simply be overkill that would not be worth it.

When Britain decided to pull out its nuclear-armed forces in ?1967, the Singaporean government were very much against it. I think that was mainly because of the jobs and procurement though.

 

[MacAttack]

Well, the Spanish government won't let Catalonia have its own sports federations except in some minoritary sports. OTOH, a Catalan football team would probably have potential to be in real competitions, with Valdés, Piqué, Alba, Xavi and Busquets (to mention the ones I can think of right now)

Oh yes they do!

Catalonia national football team

They won their match against Cape Verde 4-1 last December too. Puyol captained the team.

 

[gay_Aleks]

That looks like a map someone at Paradox made. Are you absolutely sure this isn't early production material for a new map set in modern times properly?

 

[MagisterCultuum]

Additionally, people's politics tend, overall, to become more conservative the older they get.

That is the conventional wisdom, but not quite what research into the matter has shown. Apparently there is a strong trend that an individual's politics tends to drift increasingly towards the left as he or she ages. That trend, however, is often not enough to overcome an even stronger tendency for individuals' politics to shift sharply back to the right whenever they have children, grandchildren, or great-grandchildren for whom to feel responsible. It just so happens that most of the elderly have had more descendants, but the elderly who never had children tend to be far to the left of the young who had children early.

 

[Borachio]

Ha. Well, that may well be true, though I'd like to see the evidence. But since most people do have children and grandchildren, isn't it a good enough approximation to say that people tend to become more conservative as they age?

 

[Pangur Bán]

@ Pangur Bán
What the hell difference does it make with all this age group analysis? You, it seems to me, just want to play the blame game and have the elderly well and truly in your sights.

Scotland is a divided country and you all need to move on and stop this blame game. I know you like football and you will understand when I say you sound like the footie fan whose team has just lost six nil and you are trying to blame the referee for not giving a penalty. What difference does it make?

I quoted the age group from the very much Yes supporting Herald which has perhaps tried to begin the process of healing the divisions in Scotland by not trying to blame one age group. You should try the same.

I mean what next – blame Johnny Foreigner?

Oh, I forgot, you have already done that. Kinda.

There will, one day, be another vote on Scottish independence and I suppose you hope all the elderly who voted No will be long dead by then. Well, I have news for you – there will always be elderly in Scotland and they will invariably vote No, even if they voted Yes last time.
But it will be quite some time before that new vote happens. And you might well be elderly by then too. And will probably vote No.

Polling analysis is interesting for all sorts of reasons. But it's a bit cheeky to whine about it taking place when you were the one who almost wet yourself when you read the Herald claiming that there was no significant demographic differences (before I debunked these claims that is).

Among all the straw man nonsense, you do raise one important point. The young v. old distinction may remain true even as the population ages and dies off. In response, I'm prepared to believe there is some truth to this, but it is important to note that the current 65+s do not come from an earlier Yes-supporting generation. The 65+s views on independence are the same as they were when they were in their 20s. That suggests Scotland's narrow anti-independence majority will die off in the next decades.

@Borachio - Yes, that is what I meant.

Edit: Not just that - many English retire to Scotland - cheaper houses, better elderly care etc. and they are almost bound to vote No.

I don't think this map of the possible Balkanisation of Europe (if Scotland had Voted Yes)
has been posted:

It's quite flattering to think that Scotland's subjection to Westminster rule is key to the political structure of Europe. Dozens of countries have gotten independence over the last 30 years, yet Scotland's independence will be the one that changes everything. You gotta love our commentariat--the most narrow-minded, short-memoried 'critics' the political elite have ever been blessed with!