cierdan said:
Apparently not at least when it comes to evolution science since the article by an evolution scientist Yom linked to is devoted to discussion of UNtestable hypotheses. This is not just my opinion. The AUTHOR of the article ADMITS that he is discussing things that are UNtestable:
He was talking about wings. EDIT: I should say something here that he was talking about the answer to the question, "Why did wings improve the ability of the sub-species to survive." Evolution, OTOH, doesn't need to know why, all it needs to know is
that it improved the ability of the sub-species to survive. Evolution doesn't concern itself with the "why" -- the scientist is speculating on something related to but not formally part of the theory of evolution. [/EDIT]
Evolution, OTOH,
is testable. For example, an evolutionary sequence goes:
a, b, c, d, e, f, ?, h, i.
Evolution "predicts" that the "?" is a "g" -- we can "test" that by looking at geological evidence in the form of fossils and bones -- if we find a "g", the prediction of evolution is true, if not, it's back to the drawing board. Such predicted missing links in the evolutionary chain
have been tested and proven in the past. This is what we talk about when we consider a "provable" evolution.
For example biological wheels cannot result from evolution. Wheels would be incredible useful
Again, YOU think they are USEFUL. Evolution does NOT "think" at all, it does NOT "decide" what is "useful". All that happens is:
1) some random mutation is made
(EDIT: in other words, ANY mutation)
2) if it affects the population of the sub-species containing the mutation, it is subject to selective pressure
3) If it increases the ability of the sub-species to reproduce (for example, by making it easier to run away from it's predators [i.e. survive], by making it easier to reproduce, by making it easier to catch prey, etc etc etc) then the sub-species will increase in number through greater reproduction, and the sub-species lacking the mutation will reduce in number relative to the original species.
As you can see, the only reason a mutation is "beneficial" is if it ultimately enables the mutated sub-species to increase its population relative to the parent species. That's something that you REALLY have to understand in order to understand the nature of natural selection.
Your clinging to the assumption that wings are in some way special (like 0123456789) shows your lack of understand for what natural selection entails. I have explained before that the probability of a SPECIFIC mutation is low, but that's not what you should be looking at -- you should be looking at the probability of ANY mutation, for the reason I have explained in the numbered points above.
In probability-speak:
- You are looking at: GIVEN that life has evolved, what is the probability that a wing (or wheel or specific type of fish etc etc) has evolved.
- You should be looking at: What is the probability that ANY mutation will occur in an infinitessimal time dt, and then integrate that probability over a geologically significant timescale.
It seems we have determined where exactly you've gone wrong -- you haven't grasped the basic fact of natural selection that what mutation is "beneficial" is SOLELY determined by the mutated sub-species ability to increase in population, and NOT by how "useful" we think it might be.
I admit, it is a tricky and somewhat unintuitive concept to grasp. But you merely have to look at how, for example, viruses develop resistance to antibiotics and antibodies to realise that it happens through unguided selective pressure.
EDIT: I know it's a tricky concept to grasp, because when I was at school, I found it difficult, and got a particular (and life changing) question wrong the GCSE mock exam.