Saudi Arabia Accuses Iran & Lebannon of Act of War

[OldBoomer]

This article is from Breitbart, but it was the best summary I could find, which lists everything that's happened in the past week. http://www.breitbart.com/national-s...ce-increasing-instability-as-crises-multiply/

Big Developments:
1) Lebanon's PM Saad Hariri announced his resignation in Ryidah due to fear of being assassinated.
2) On Saturday, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile that reached the King Khalid International Airport near Riyadh, about 800 km from the Yemen border. Saudi Arabia is calling the ballistic missile attack on Riydah by Houthi militias in Yemen an act of war by Iran and Lebanon. (The Houthi Rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon are backed by Iran).
3) Saudi Prince Mansour bin Muqrin was killed in a helicopter crash when traveling near the Yemen border. There were immediate concerns that the helicopter was shot down by a Houthi missile, but no explanation has been given, and the Houthis themselves haven’t claimed credit, suggesting that the crash was not related to the Yemen war.
4) The Foreign Ministry of Bahrain issued a statement calling on its citizens to leave Lebanon for the sake of their safety.
5) Saudi Arabia announced a major purge of political and business élites, involving the arrest of 11 princes, four ministers, and dozens of former ministers accused of corruption.

Isreal's PM Benjamin Netanyahu also made the following statements:
"Iran is devouring one nation after the other," Netanyahu said at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs think-tank in London.

"It is doing so either by direct conquest or by using proxy. They took over Lebanon, Yemen... they try to do the same thing with Iraq, in Syria,” he added.

"The good news is that the other guys are getting together with Israel as never before. It is something that I would have never expected in my lifetime," said Netanyahu, who noted Israel was working "very hard" to establish an effective alliance with "the modern Sunni states" to condemn and counter Iranian aggression.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/237625

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Is the Middle East headed into a large regional war? And what implications do you think this has for Russia and the US, since Russia has been backing the Iranians, Syrians, and by extension the Houthi Rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon? Also what do you make of the recent purges of political and business élites in Saudi Arabia?

 

[Samson]

Re. Missile attack on Riyadh airport, this is war between Iran/Saudi as the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was Russia declaring war on Malaysia, as in pretty bad but not war.

Re. "Night of the long knives" in Saudi Arabia, I think this is the moderates stamping their authority on the Kingdom while they are in the ascendancy. I cannot say I am that sad, Saudi extremism is one of the major problems of the world. It is perhaps a step further towards absolute autocracy, which is not a good thing.

Re. Lebanon, I do not know but it really frightens me. It is Realpolitik, but it is a very one sided party expressing control over a very diverse bit of the middle east.

I do not think it will come to major inter-country war in the near future, everyone has far more to lose than to gain. There is plenty of bad stuff that can happen without that.

 

[innonimatu]

So the saudis bomb a country and kidnap the prime minister of another, and whet the first fights back they accuse the other and an unrelated one of an "act of war".

The desert sun makes people mad...

 

[dutchfire]

There are already two large regional wars going on in the Middle East: Syria/Iraq and Yemen. I'm also fine with calling that one big war. I fear that these conflicts will expand to Lebanon. At the moment, I don't think that they will expand further than that, but that is certainly a possibility. If Lebanon is the battle field, Israel involvement is likely.

There is a lot of built up instability in the political situation in Saudi Arabia, the question is if the dam will brake soon.

Benjamin Netanyahu and Breitbart are both pretty low on the list of people whose foreign policy views I respect.

I don't think this will have strong implications for Russia and Russia-US relations, since most of the battles are fought by proxies of proxies (Yemen/Lebanon). If the conflict reaches Saudi or Iranian soil, all bets are off.

Perhaps an interesting question is what Europe will do. Europe isn't as close to Israel and the Saudi's as the US, Qatar invests a lot in Europe (and sponsors FC Barcelona and PSG...) and trade with Iran is picking up and is economically relevant.

 

[Ajidica]

Really, Breitbart was the best summary you could find?

A night of long knives and long-range missiles in Riyadh has provoked another seismic shift across a volatile Middle East and nervous uncertainty over what salvos will follow next.

Three events that happened suddenly on Saturday in the Saudi capital were not directly linked. But, all told, they pack a powerful punch at a time when Saudi Arabia and its key partners, including the United States, are showing ever greater resolve to confront their arch rival, Iran.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41893694
Literally like the top story in their middle east section yesterday, displaced from the front page by the Texas shooting and the Paradise Papers.

EDIT:

Is the Middle East headed into a large regional war?

No.
Much cheaper to hire a bunch of militants and try and overthrow a government while maintaining the flimsiest of "plausible deniability".
Plus, the Saudi's don't want to send their planes into airspace where the enemy has the audacity of being able to shoot back.

And what implications do you think this has for Russia and the US, since Russia has been backing the Iranians, Syrians, and by extension the Houthi Rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon?

That's quite a list of extensions for Russian support.
Russia has never been particularly fond of Iran, but were allies of circumstance because Iran wanted to buy anti-aircraft missiles and Russia has rarely been picky about who they sell to. They definitely aren't buddy-buddy enough with Iran to get involved in their proxy wars.

Also what do you make of the recent purges of political and business élites in Saudi Arabia?

Politically motivated at best.
It is like when Ukraine or Moldova would announce they were going to do anti-corruption drives. You know all the power players are corrupt out the wazoo so the whole process was a farce.

 

[Kyriakos]

So many 'problematic democracies' in the region.

 

[r16]

the "moderates" of Saudi are not moderates , just a newbee who has grabbed power . Not that ı would like ever feel sorry for the victims , but anyhow . The newbee tends make much of the fact one of his opponents opposed the Orange Messiah during the elections so it has like total US support , you know , this democracy coming to the Saudis . In New Turkey , it's naturally against a plot against New Turkey , with the newbee being the architect of hitting Qataris to make the stigma of the failure of the Irresuction go away . Yemenis are firing Scuds and the like into the Saudis for 2 years and while ı thought the helicopter crash was an execution by the next King , the newspaper account suggest he might have been an ally . It must be real hard to keep track with 15 000 princes in the country . In any case the most beloved son of the former King has apparently been killed at home , so sabotaging a helicopter becomes an unnecessary expenditure , with that standart in mind .


and ı must say some dragons in the Yemeni airspace have already eaten up to 7 or 8 or whatever eagles , falcons and stuff . It's in the best American tradition , the bullet holes are not bullet holes but rivets popping out after the wreck catches fire . ı don't know , it might really happen , too .

 

[dutchfire]

In unrelated (?) news:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...ls-21st-century-fox-stake-in-blow-to-murdochs

Saudi prince sells 21st Century Fox stake in blow to Murdochs

A key ally of Rupert Murdoch has sold his stake in 21st Century Fox, leaving the company more vulnerable to a rebellion by shareholders unhappy at the dominance of the Murdoch family.

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who controls the investment firm Kingdom Holding and is one of the world’s richest men, at one stage owned more than 6% of Fox and has consistently backed the Murdochs in shareholder votes about the family’s control of the company.

Prince Alwaleed was among 11 princes arrested – along with four ministers and tens of former ministers – over the weekend by the Saudi government in what was described as an anti-corruption crackdown.

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

Much cheaper to hire a bunch of militants and try and overthrow a government while maintaining the flimsiest of "plausible deniability".
Plus, the Saudi's don't want to send their planes into airspace where the enemy has the audacity of being able to shoot back.

The Saudi military is big and professional looking, but is really a paper tiger. Their military was designed for defensive operations from the beginning, and a full half of their ground forces are reserved for internal defensive purposes (public order , defend against coups, revolutions etc.) Notice that the Saudi's don't usually contribute much towards international forces, and when they do (First Gulf War) they required lots of U.S. & British logistical support.

The Saudi's are conducting an intensive air campaign because their air force is the only military arm capable of sustained operation. And even their air force requires an embarrassing amount of U.S. support to function in their own back yard.

Iran is in a similar position, but their army is probably more capable due to their fear of external threats as well as internal. So get ready for loads of proxy wars as Iran and the Saudi's enter into an Irish standoff.

 

[dutchfire]

Lots of stuff brewing at the moment. Lebanon is annoyed at SA about the whole Hariri thing. Macron is supposed to fly to SA to set things straight.

 

[civvver]

Just hope US doesn't get involved. I still don't understand our support of saudi arabia except for the whole oil thing and the enemy of my enemy is my friend thing.

 

[Sommerswerd]

So you do understand then...

 

[r16]

the plunder aspect is kinda nice , with quite undiscernable tangents to here . The arrested princes' are apparently worth 800 billions almost the size of Turkey's GNP , without the fake numbers . So , now America gives up "invading" here ? The Lebanese apparently insist the Prime Minister was physically beaten to resign , with traces of rope in his wrists . The guy apparently owns shares of a telecom company here . And the spectacle of the former President , the Turkish branch of George Clooney , for his so called looks resembling the actor . Who used to play the good cop bad cop routine with the PM . As the respective wives hate each other , after every new brilliance by the A-K-P , all the heads would return to the former president , expecting a rescue from the cop that remained and nothing . As soon as Saudis imply they might finance stuff , oh my , the good cop calls the other without brains .