Saudi Arabia executes democracy protestor

[Silurian]

From The Guardian

Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, whose execution by Saudi Arabia has sparked condemnation across the Middle East, rose to international prominence during the pro-democracy protests that erupted in the country’s eastern provinces in 2011.
Nimr’s staunch and vocal support of the movement in regions where the Shia have a majority but have frequently complained of marginalisation, saw the 56-year-old cited as the driving force behind the protests while affording him hero status among Saudi’s Shia youth.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/02/sheikh-nimr-al-nimr-shia-cleric-thorn-saudi-regime-side

I am not sure what the Saudis long term strategy is but they could well find themselves in the position that the Iranians are trying to dig themselves out of with regards to the west. Oil is the only thing going for Saudi Arabia they have not diversified their economy enough to provide jobs for their population yet.

From Huffington Post

Time is a luxury that Saudi Arabia can no longer take for granted. It faces an economic time bomb, which, if not defused, will have severe and possibly irreversible effects both nationally and internationally. The 2014-2015 collapse in oil prices has slashed the Kingdom's main source of revenue which makes 77 - to - 88 per cent of its total income. For the last two years, the Saudi government has declared a huge deficit in its budgets, and for the first time since 2007, the Government has been forced to draw on its foreign reserves and issue bonds.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/luay-al-khatteeb/saudi-arabias-economic-ti_b_8894100.html

It may be a good time to confront the Shia majority in the oil producing region so that they can remove their leaders. But what happens when the oil price rises and the Saudis have removed the moderate people and extremists have replaced them.

 

[Kyriakos]

Saudi is an important ally of freedom-spreading nations It is a problematic democracy

 

[Silurian]

Saudi Arabia is a military theocracy.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I am not sure what the Saudis long term strategy is but they could well find themselves in the position that the Iranians are trying to dig themselves out of with regards to the west. Oil is the only thing going for Saudi Arabia they have not diversified their economy enough to provide jobs for their population yet.

The Iranians only got in a hole because they could be replaced as primary US oil partner...by the House of Saud. The US is not going to condemn Saudi Arabia over this. Heck, they wouldn't condemn the House of Saud if they were to try to institute an anachronistic and brutal absolute monarchy. Oh. Wait. That's what they already were when they became the primary US oil partner, and the US has since propped them up against all comers...while pretending to have an interest in spreading democracy. Funny how when you are driving an SUV it is easy to be an oblivious voter.

 

[Silurian]

The trouble for Saudi Arabia is there are plenty of Sunni who do not like the Monarchy as well. Let’s not forget that the majority of the 911 terrorists were Sunni Saudis. If in the future the Shia start an insurgency will the Wahhabist Sunnis think the regime is not doing enough to fight the heretics. Could the regime then move more towards Wahhabism or face a coup.

Then they can be replaced by the Iranians or the Texans.

 

[EgonSpengler]

Saudi is an important ally of freedom-spreading nations It is a problematic democracy

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, our oil imports from Saudi Arabia are trending down a bit over the last 20 years, but not enough, in my opinion. otoh, our imports from Canada have gone up dramatically over the same period of time. Provided the Canadians aren't sick of us yet, I wouldn't mind seeing that continue. Of course, what I really want is for us to stop using so much oil, but with California reluctant to fully embrace driverless cars and utility companies trying to charge people who use solar panels a fee, I don't know how optimistic I can be.

And while I agree they're problematic, since when is Saudi Arabia a democracy?

 

[Silurian]

The Saudi embassy in Tehran has been stormed and a fire started. The police have now removed the protestors.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The trouble for Saudi Arabia is there are plenty of Sunni who do not like the Monarchy as well. Let’s not forget that the majority of the 911 terrorists were Sunni Saudis. If in the future the Shia start an insurgency will the Wahhabist Sunnis think the regime is not doing enough to fight the heretics. Could the regime then move more towards Wahhabism or face a coup.

Then they can be replaced by the Iranians or the Texans.

There are all kinds of Saudi Arabians who don't like the House of Saud. Always have been. So what? If the US trained monarchy military can't handle an uprising, US troops will do it for them. And when pissed off Saudi Arabians retaliate for the intervention, they will be called Islamic terrorists who just "envy our freedoms" so our voters can go on self righteously driving their SUVs and believing that they support democracy around the world and cheap gas is their "just reward."

At least that is how it has worked in the past.

 

[Silurian]

That is now but what is going to happen in the future. The US are not going to put troops on the ground when they do not need the oil anymore. The price of oil will pick up again maybe next year but in the long run demand for oil will decline. The Saudi’s are currently living off their savings.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That is now but what is going to happen in the future. The US are not going to put troops on the ground when they do not need the oil anymore. The price of oil will pick up again maybe next year but in the long run demand for oil will decline. The Saudi’s are currently living off their savings.

The price of oil is still controlled by the Saudi's, and will be for the foreseeable future. If the Saudi's throttle back production, the price goes up worldwide. It actually doesn't matter where the oil comes from, if the price goes up US oil gets exported. US consumers have what is known as A COW. Next thing you know, a military misadventure to protect the Riyadh oilfields "in the name of the democratic government of Saudi Arabia" is easy enough to pitch that you don't need a Ronald Reagan to pull it off.

 

[Smellincoffee]

And these are the people with whom the United States has made one of the largest arms deal in history...

 

[Lord of Elves]

We can only hope that this will produce the kind of frenzy that will bring an end to absolutist rule in Saudi Arabia, except should we really want that, considering that the likely alternative is equally fascistic theocracy?

It's not gonna be ugly, it already is ugly.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

We can only hope that this will produce the kind of frenzy that will bring an end to absolutist rule in Saudi Arabia, except should we really want that, considering that the likely alternative is equally fascistic theocracy?

It's not gonna be ugly, it already is ugly.

Thing is that Islam has demonstrated that it doesn't lend itself well to fascistic theocracy on a large scale since the faith itself lacks a centralized structure. Collapse of the monarchy probably leads to failure of Saudi Arabia as a monolithic block. And yes, more fragmentation is not really likely to make the Middle East a better place.

 

[plarq]

Thing is that Islam has demonstrated that it doesn't lend itself well to fascistic theocracy on a large scale since the faith itself lacks a centralized structure. Collapse of the monarchy probably leads to failure of Saudi Arabia as a monolithic block. And yes, more fragmentation is not really likely to make the Middle East a better place.

In the early Islamic history, the four Caliphs had really done a good job and conquered land comparable to Genghis Khan. Then the Caliphate is weakened, fragmented and decayed to the insignificance. The problem is not because Islam is decentralized, but the strong man does not have enough power to keep pretenders at bay.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

In the early Islamic history, the four Caliphs had really done a good job and conquered land comparable to Genghis Khan. Then the Caliphate is weakened, fragmented and decayed to the insignificance. The problem is not because Islam is decentralized, but the strong man does not have enough power to keep pretenders at bay.

There was a time when "Christianity"="Catholicism" and a continent sized Christian theocracy was possible as well. However, that time also passed.

 

[Tee Kay]

Thing is that Islam has demonstrated that it doesn't lend itself well to fascistic theocracy on a large scale since the faith itself lacks a centralized structure.

Very few religions do. Roman Catholicism is the exception rather than the rule.

Instead what Islam has is immense social pressure to maintain a common and united Muslim identity, and this unity is often conflated with conformity. A prominent-enough Muslim can rally hundreds of millions of coreligionists to their goals across all ages, sects, ethnicities, nationalities, political views, or social classes as long as they say it's for Islam.

This is even more conducive to fascism than a centralised structure. If Islam has a common authoritative governing body then the popes and cardinals of Islam would have to rise through the ranks and the system would weed out those who carry dangerous liberalising ideas but also those who have dangerous radically reactionary ideas. Instead we have in Islam IRL is any demagogue loud and good enough at rabble-rousing (or with enough money) can just impose their personal whims on the entire religion.

If Islam has a strong Pope then violent Wahhabism/Salafism would never have became the global phenomenon it is today. In the absence of a central body interpreting the holy texts and keeping the Ummah together, religious authority goes to the person with the most money or the most guns. This is the real problem with Islam as a civilisation; it's fast becoming one where, almost exclusively, might makes right; a fascist civilisation.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

TK...in your first paragraph you speak of rallying "hundreds of millions of coreligionists," which struck me as a mindboggling exaggeration. If we posit that the entire population of Iran is nominally united that's less than a hundred million. How much of the Middle East is rallying to their cause? Surely not enough to produce a total in the hundreds of millions. Not even close. And that's about as close to a unified front as you are going to find.

Then you raise the stakes to some fictional demagogue "imposing their personal whims" on the entire 1.6 billion plus Muslims worldwide. It's absurd.

 

[Silurian]

The price of oil is still controlled by the Saudi's, and will be for the foreseeable future. If the Saudi's throttle back production, the price goes up worldwide. It actually doesn't matter where the oil comes from, if the price goes up US oil gets exported. US consumers have what is known as A COW. Next thing you know, a military misadventure to protect the Riyadh oilfields "in the name of the democratic government of Saudi Arabia" is easy enough to pitch that you don't need a Ronald Reagan to pull it off.

I agree that in the short, and most likely medium term the Saudi’s control the oil price. In the long term the rising price of oil and CO2 reduction will drive substitution.
This will first reduce demand for oil in the west. If half the US SUVs run on electricity from the solar panels on their house and the other half use 30% less oil, they are less likely to support spilling the blood of their sons to defend “Democracy in Saudi Arabia”. Currently demand for oil is growing in Africa, India etc. But in the long term will this demand increase when better electricity networks are introduced to replace generators and anti pollution measures are brought it to combat smog from vehicles.
When the substitution reaches a certain level the price of oil will be driven by demand substitution rather than supply.

Obviously this is not certain we may carry on using oil and not substitute. In the long run the Saudi’s influence on the price of oil most probably decline.

 

[classical_hero]

If you really think this guy is a "democracy" campaigner then you are seriously delusional. This is just art of the long battle between Shi'ites and Sunnis with a Sunni government executing a Shi'ite radical.

 

[Silurian]

If you really think this guy is a "democracy" campaigner then you are seriously delusional. This is just art of the long battle between Shi'ites and Sunnis with a Sunni government executing a Shi'ite radical.

I am not surprised that you think that asking for equal rights has nothing to do with democracy