Well, I'm here
BTW 48-year-old fart, holding a masters degree in physics, but working as an engineer in computer programming and simulation nowadays. Living in Germany at the shore of Lake Constance.
To the game:
I also did some world builder tests and I come to the conclusion that we cannot afford to settle anywhere near where we are now
Our economy will be totally trashed by the distance maintainance (at least -7gpt and it will go up by 1gpt with every pop growth on the second city).
To get a healthy economy we would have to work several mature cottages, which then means we have nearly no production.
Even w/o looking on gold, it's questionable if a city here could survive. It would need a worker and an obelisk before it could get even marginal production and then it's limited to size 4 with no lux. And if not settled on the river it will even get unhealthy then (sure health resources are available, but the fish needs a workboat, the rice may soon be subject to pillaging).
Losing the city after it has dragged down our economy for a long time is obviously the worst case.
So I think we should scout with the settler and warrior until we either find a real power location or we are much nearer to the capital.
I'm talking here about anything between 10 and 30 turns and am well aware that the settler maybe eaten by an animal even with the warrior covering.
But I think losing the settler would still be better than settling a lousy spot and killing the economy. Our capital is in a safe spot and can do very good research and also some production with slavery.
I'm pretty sure that there is coast north of the capital (the sea looks a bit lighter and there is commerce on the edges), so there should be the chance to get there with galleys.
I think we should start with researching mysticism, while scouting the land towards the east (and maybe a little towards the south along the river). If we don't find a good location or the settler gets lost early, head for polytheism, which should give a good chance for a religion in the capital or in the then later settled second city.
If we find a power location early, research what's needed for the second city.
If we get an early religion in the capital we could try to get a great prophet there to research most of civil service (pop rush a temple and run a priest). Getting to code of law should be no problem as long as the second city isn't too much of a burden.
We could even try to partially pop-rush the Oracle there, but that would come pretty late (though I succeeded in one test game
running only the capital).
I don't have much hope for building the Oracle otherwise. We for sure cannot afford a third city this far away from the capital and building enough military and then the Oracle in the second city would really need an extreme good spot (like a marble hill to settle with some gems, gold and food around