I did a matchup for Sailing => Masonry => Wheel (SMW) vs MWS
16 turns not having sailing means no having trade routes = 16 * 2 commerce = 32 commerce lost.
Wonder Builds
SMW: Mids 119 TGLight 101
MWS: Mids 118 TGLight 102
I would have guessed the delay on TGLight would be greater than one turn, but there it is.
Other builds in Moscow:
SMW: Lighthouse (74) + 2 warriors (78 & 81), ---------------, Galley (88)
MWS: --Workboat (64) + 2 Warriors (70 & 75), Lighthouse (81), Galley (96)
Note:
SMW First warrior goes MP in Petes, where it is 2 turns late... losing 2 turns on a unhappy face (I think), the second goes fogbust
MWS First warrior goes MP in Petes, where it is right on time, Second goes fogbust 6 turns earlier => Less chance of barbs...
Untill we produce the second warrior we have a gap behind the Fogbusting Warrior on the Gems Hill (WGH). We could retreat WGH some tiles, but this romoves the blockade of the eastern lands and any barbs spawned there can walk around our warrior(s). Plus (I think) we will never fully close the gap effectively.
Warrior/Settler after TGLight (settler whipped for 2)
SMW: 109
MWS: 110
Commerce = total commerce within the city not counting traderoutes after fishing
On turn 120, Moscow
SMW: Size 4, 31 food, 151 hammers, 1348 commerce
MWS: Size 4, 09 food, 068 hammers, 1321 commerce (+ Workboat => total 68 + 45 = 113 hammers)
St.Petes
SMW: Size 2, 16 food, 18 hammers, 208 commerce
MWS: Size 2, 30 food, 16 hammers, 225 commerce
Totals SMW vs MWS:
Food: Moscow -22, St.Petes +14 = -8 food
Hammers: Moscow -38, St.Petes -2 = -40 hammers
Commerce: Moscow -27, St.Petes +17, Delay Sailing -32 = -42 commerce
I think the winner is SMW (Sailing => Masonry => Wheel), unless you put a high price on getting Pyramids 1 turn earlier vs the delay of TGL by one turn and fogbusting a few turns earlier.
*I sure hate to lose either wonder by 1 turn knowing this...*
After discovering The Wheel we have about 477 (raw) commerce before TGLight is build. Without OBs the traderoutes will not be filled! So to get benifitting ASAP we should go for Writing (Pottery => Writing) after The Wheel. The has the added bonus of giving us Granaries but mostly for the OBs. IIRC (dont have CIV at the moment) writing is some 180+ (120 on normal + Monarch) and potter 120+ (80 on normal + Monarch), totals 300+ commerce. While on a relative beeline Dot got writing in 102
here. If we insert IW (300+) before writing we will get OBs (to) late, wasting commerce for missed traderoutes at a rate of about 2*2 + 1*1 = 5 commerce/turn. Considering we have about 18gpt not including the (external) traderoutes.... that is a big loss... tho I am not sure how much delay there would be.
I really dont see the priority of the Iron (Working)... (other than cutting jungle). By the time we get to Chemistry + Astronomy we should have been able to get us some Iron. If not we may want to consider peacefull UN or even Space. The only tech we would pick up now but dont need on a strickt space race is Mass Media (UN).