SGOTM 07 - Xteam

[Jimmy Thunder]

I could jump forward in the roster, but I'd only be available to play my turns in 5 days time (the start of the next weekend).

 

[leif erikson]

I could jump forward in the roster, but I'd only be available to play my turns in 5 days time (the start of the next weekend).

Thanks JT.

Updated Roster:
Jimmy Thunder - UP (for the weekend)
Cactus Pete - On Deck
Frederiksberg - Off for Spain - wishes for good travels.
Mad Professor - Off on an African adventure, where is he today?
Gator
rrau
leif
ShannonCT - Just Played!!

Mistfit

JT can play this weekend and CP next week. That should be about when Fred returns and, hopefully, everything will work smoothly...

 

[Frederiksberg]

This is the list of tech preferences of a Great Merchant:

Currency
Banking
Economics
Corporation
Metal Casting
Code of Laws
Mining
Constitution
The Wheel
Alphabet (BTS)
Pottery
Sailing
Paper
Railroad
Industrialism
Monarchy
Civil Service
Guilds
Fascism
Mass Media
Agriculture
Writing
Mathematics
Printing Press

So we need to trade for Monarchy, Currency and Metal Casting before we can bulb CS. An early GM could be settled instead for 6gpt and 1 food per turn. This is actually not bad. If we assume that the GLib is built 10 turns from now we should get our first GP in 15 turns or around turn 80. We know that a realistic Communism date is T140 so the GM would have 60 turns to work. Suppose that the average tech multiplier during these turns is 100% and that we are using Bureaucracy he will have provided 60*9*2=1080 beakers - only a little less than the cost of CS.

I have given the CS beeline vs Monarchy some more thought. Even at size 9 or 10 we will still be able to work all 7 cottages thus maturing them as fast as possible. We could also allow Beijing to grow into unhappiness in the expectation that Monarchy will bring these citizens immediately to work soon. I guess that could limit the gpt lost due to the happy cap. In return we would save the beakers otherwise used for Monarchy and we would get CS a little earlier. Any chance that Monarchy won't be available for trade 20 turns from now?

 

[leif erikson]

Any chance that Monarchy won't be available for trade 20 turns from now?

Yes, there is a chance.
Went back and checked the saves and logs from several test games. I found Monarchy showing up around turn 88 to 92 and that I was able to trade for it around turn 97 to 101. I held Alphabet for a time in those games, could this have delayed the discovery of Monarchy in any way?

We are currently at turn 66. It looks more like 25 to 30 turns before Monarchy may be available.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

So we need to trade for Monarchy, Currency and Metal Casting before we can bulb CS. An early GM could be settled instead for 6gpt and 1 food per turn. This is actually not bad. If we assume that the GLib is built 10 turns from now we should get our first GP in 15 turns or around turn 80. We know that a realistic Communism date is T140 so the GM would have 60 turns to work. Suppose that the average tech multiplier during these turns is 100% and that we are using Bureaucracy he will have provided 60*9*2=1080 beakers - only a little less than the cost of CS.

Unfortunately the Great Merchant gives gold per turn, not commerce. Gold per turn is not very helpful at all as we know from testing that when Currency gets traded to us we will have more gold than we need while still running 100% research. So there won't be any +50% from bureau nor 100% from science modifiers applied (unless the +gold from the merchant allows us to run at 100% instead of being forced to go to 90% - not very likely).

The best use of a GMerchant is definitely to bulb, it is just going to be tricky since we need to have Currency, Monarchy, and MC via trades before the merchant can bulb towards our beeline, i.e. CivilService.

The best case scenario would be getting a GScientist.

Hiring one scientist between now and the time we get the GreatLibrary will have quite a dramatic impact on the chance of our first GP being a scientist. But it will still be a gamble. Hiring two scientists would further increase our chances, but the change-in-%-per-scientist-hired is not as effective as only hiring one.

Worst case scenario - we get a GMerchant and we can't trade for Currency/MC/Monarchy in time then we can still self research CS and bulb Paper with him, not too bad.

Side note:
Having Confu founded on the other continent is great for us since it means that we can possibly research Code of Laws as a monopoly tech. I say this because I've observed that not many AI will try to get it after the religion has been founded. This may increase the potency of our trading in these important early years.

 

[leif erikson]

Hiring one scientist between now and the time we get the GreatLibrary will have quite a dramatic impact on the chance of our first GP being a scientist. But it will still be a gamble. Hiring two scientists would further increase our chances, but the change-in-%-per-scientist-hired is not as effective as only hiring one.

If we hire a Scientist now through GLibrary, what % chance do we have of getting one? Is it good enough to give it a shot?

Worst case scenario - we get a GMerchant and we can't trade for Currency/MC/Monarchy in time then we can still self research CS and bulb Paper with him, not too bad.

The question arises? Should we then research Monarchy next in the hope that we can trade for Currency and Metal Casting and bulb CS. That doesn't seem very likely to me.

Beelining to CS seems like the best option. Trying for the Scientist also seems like a smart thing to do. If we need to Bulb Paper, that is OK as well. All trade bait for Monarchy, Metal Casting and Currency; and starting some wars...

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

If we hire a Scientist now through GLibrary, what % chance do we have of getting one? Is it good enough to give it a shot?

I think it boils down to something like this:
100GPPs required.
We have had GLighthouse for 20 turns at 2gpp/turn
So we are 40/100

(To keep it simple I'll assume we build the GLib in 12 turns time, if it's +/- a few turns it doesn't change things that dramatically)

If we hire a scientist we will be at 5gpp/turn with a 50%/50% merch/scient split for these additional turns.
With this rate of gpp we get our first great person in 12 turns time;

This gives a total of 32 turns of building a GP, 20 turns at 100% merchant and 12 turns at 50%/50% = 81% chance of GMerchant, 19% chance of GScientist.

If we leave it without hiring a scientist, we get GLib in 12 turns time when we are 64/100 at 100% merchant. We then start getting 10gpp/turn at 25%merch/75% scientist split for these additional turns.
With this rate of gpp we get our first great person 4 turns after the GLib is built.

This gives a total of 36 turns of building a GP, 32 turns at 100% merchant and 4 turns at 25%/75% = 92% chance of GMerchant, 8% chance of GScientist.

 

[Cactus Pete]

I like hiring a scientist as soon as we grow 1 more pop. Although our chances of getting a Great Scientist are not good, another specialist working soon will speed the time to our first (and therefore our second) Great Person.

I don't like the idea of having a Great Merchant sitting idle; moreover, if we get a second Great Merchant, then the problem is compounded. Let's not rule out bulbing Metal Casting with our first one, as that would give us considerable flexibility going forward.

 

[leif erikson]

I don't like the idea of having a Great Merchant sitting idle; moreover, if we get a second Great Merchant, then the problem is compounded. Let's not rule out bulbing Metal Casting with our first one, as that would give us considerable flexibility going forward.

I don't like it either because we have to pay maintenance on unused Great People. That may force us below 100% research because we do not have Currency to trade Gold.

According to the list Fred posted, Currency is the number one tech a Great Merchant will bulb. We must trade for it in order to get him to bulb Metal Casting. I really don't like bulbing Currency as all the Ai's will research it fairly quickly.

I think we have to hire the Scientist and hope for the best?

 

[DJMGator13]

Just looking through the LeaderAI Excel file Gator sent us earlier:

Asoka needs 20%+ of known AI to have a tech to no longer consider it a monopoly tech. Right now, 3/11 of known AI have Math, so he's past the threshold. But he wont trade it because he's building the Hanging Gardens.

Capac needs 30%+ of known AI to know a tech before trading, so he should trade Math when one more AI learns it. Julius and Lizzy are 40%+. Washington and Fred are 30%.

Capac and Julius will trade us monopoly techs when our relations reach +6 or higher. So it would be good to find a way to make these two happier. Toku, Alex, and Issy are the other AI on our continent with the +6 threshold for trading monopoly techs.

Edit: We are at +3 with Julius right now. We could gift him Meditation next turn in the hopes of crossing the +6 threshold for trading monopoly techs.

I haven't checked the save but what is our current relations with Asoka? He won't tech trade unless we are above Annoyed status with him based on the TechRefuseAttitudeThreshold.

I started working on our diplo tracking spreadsheet. I'm going to set it up in 2 parts. First part will be a legend of sorts that will show all the key stats for the 18 civs we are playing against. The second part will be the diplo event by turn tracking history/projection area. It should be done tomorrow night depending on what time I get off work.

 

[ShannonCT]

Agree, and if we revolt to Slavery, won't we incur a 1GPT for the civic, thereby prohibiting constant 100% research?

Apparently there are no civic costs in OCC.

What about Construction (and cats) to get started early -- perhaps join a dogpile and raze a city for the money or extort techs for peace? Why Biology?

No dissent about the value of Bureaucracy, but will we have a GM ready to light bulb CoL that soon? If not, isn't this a good argument for either Monarchy or Metal Casting next?

I can't see much benefit in pouring hammers into a lot of units now. The gold from razing a city will be eaten up in unit maintenance. I don't have much hope for extorting techs either.

Biology might be needed to grow the population for domination or diplo. After conquering our continent, I've found the PA partner doesn't always cooperate in conquering overseas cities.

If we get a GM, I doubt we'd want to or be able to use him for CoL. Currency comes before CoL on the GM list. We'll be ready to research CoL in 4-5 turns. If we do get a GM, I think he'll probably be best used for MC or Paper. A forge will be quite useful if we can't get Monarchy soon.

Agree, that would be an unecessary waste. Is there a danger that one of the forested hills will have iron? If so, we'll want to chop and mine it, which means not reducing our forests to four before we know where the iron is (or isn't).

Iron wont be under a forest unless Gyathaar did it in Worldbuilder. I expect we'll find iron in the ice somewhere. And I don't think we need to save more than the 2 forests under the deer and fur. We are looking quite strong in health resources:

Default 2
Fresh Water 2
Seafood 3
Landfood 3
2 Forests 1
Aquaduct 2
Harbor 3
(Forge -1)

That's a total of 16 (or 15) health eventually.

 

[rrau]

I think there are civic costs. In one of my test games, a civic combination I chose ran -2gppt when I had 5 units and I had to settle a GA for the gold to keep from having to drop research rate down.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Apparently there are no civic costs in OCC. Sounds like there is some doubt about this.

I can't see much benefit in pouring hammers into a lot of units now. The gold from razing a city will be eaten up in unit maintenance. I don't have much hope for extorting techs either Okay, but why not?.

Biology might be needed to grow the population for domination or diplo. After conquering our continent, I've found the PA partner doesn't always cooperate in conquering overseas cities. Why would we need to fight overseas?

If we get a GM, I doubt we'd want to or be able to use him for CoL. Currency comes before CoL on the GM list. We'll be ready to research CoL in 4-5 turns. If we do get a GM, I think he'll probably be best used for MC or Paper. A forge will be quite useful if we can't get Monarchy soon. Is this possibly a reason to delay trading for Math (so Currency isn't available)? Just asking.

Iron wont be under a forest unless Gyathaar did it in Worldbuilder. I expect we'll find iron in the ice somewhere. And I don't think we need to save more than the 2 forests under the deer and fur. We are looking quite strong in health resources:

Default 2
Fresh Water 2
Seafood 3
Landfood 3
2 Forests 1
Aquaduct 2
Harbor 3
(Forge -1)

That's a total of 16 (or 15) health eventually.

Understood, but it may be a while before it's convenient to build a harbor and an aquaduct, so let's not chop too freely.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

I can answer one of your questions CP:

We might need Biology in the case where we conquer our own continent to get 51% land but are still short of having ~60% of the population. In order to grow our population %, it may be easier to just use workers to farm every square in our PA partners territory than to try conquering overseas cities. Getting Biology early on would then be a definite advantage.

 

[leif erikson]

I think there are civic costs. In one of my test games, a civic combination I chose ran -2gppt when I had 5 units and I had to settle a GA for the gold to keep from having to drop research rate down.

Just checked one of the test games. In this game, we are running Representation (medium upkeep), Bureaucracy (medium upkeep), Slavery (low upkeep), Dcentralization (low upkeep) and Paganism (low upkeep). The upkeep cost is zero. If I mouse over:
Police State (high upkeep), the upkeep cost remains zero.
Organized Religion (high upkeep), the upkeep changes to 1 GPT.
Theocracy (medium upkeep), the upkeep cost would change to 1 GPT.

Mousing over the other available civics, including: Hereditary Rule, Police State, Universal Suffrage, Vassalage, Free Speech, Serfdom, Caste System, Pacifism and Free Religion, produces no change in upkeep cost.

So there can be upkeep costs. We just need to watch what combinations we use.

Is that as clear as mud????

EDIT - CP's suggestion of avoiding Math is interesting. We could do this as long as we are assured of getting The Great Library without the need of chops? If we decide to do this, we need to make sure we'll get a Great Merchant...

 

[ShannonCT]

I think there are civic costs. In one of my test games, a civic combination I chose ran -2gppt when I had 5 units and I had to settle a GA for the gold to keep from having to drop research rate down.

Looking at it again, there are a couple civics that are showing up as costing 1GPT right now: Organized Religion and Theocracy. Slavery costs nothing.

I haven't checked the save but what is our current relations with Asoka? He won't tech trade unless we are above Annoyed status with him based on the TechRefuseAttitudeThreshold.

Asoka is pleased with us, and it can only get better, with Asoka eventually giving to +7 for same religion.

Is this possibly a reason to delay trading for Math (so Currency isn't available)? Just asking.

That's an interesting thought. The GM would bulb Metal Casting if we didn't have Math yet. Going on this idea, here's a sequence to get a great person in 9 turns, with an 82% chance of it being a GM:

1) Hire 1 scientist and work 2 crab, 1 coast, grass cottage, fur, and deer.
2) Workers go build sheep pasture next turn.
3) When sheep are pastured on turn 68, work sheep instead of coast.
4) 1 worker roads sheep and other begins prechopping western hill forest.
5) Pop8 on turn 70. Hire a second scientist.
6) Great person is born on turn 75. If a GM, bulb MC, and then trade for Math if possible.
7) On turn 75 after MC bulb, workers chop remaining grass forests.
8) On turn 77, one worker chops prechopped forest.

If we get a GS instead, we can bulb Philosophy or build an academy.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

That's an interesting thought. The GM would bulb Metal Casting if we didn't have Math yet.

Bulbing MC without getting Maths is a good idea. Just note that if we save a GMerchant for bulbing Paper we can get close to twice the beaker value, and it goes towards a tech on our strict beeline. The trade off is :

• Beakers now are worth more than beakers later
• MC lets us get a forge which can help happiness issues (since we probably won't be building the GlobeTheatre)
• MC gives us more early tech trading opportunities
• A sort of contingency that if our second GP is a merchant then we can use him for Paper

 

[leif erikson]

Bulbing MC without getting Maths is a good idea. Just note that if we save a GMerchant for bulbing Paper we can get close to twice the beaker value, and it goes towards a tech on our strict beeline.

MC is on our strict beeline. To get Communism requires Astronomy. That goes back to Optics, which requires Machinery, which requires MC.

 

[Frederiksberg]

That's an interesting thought. The GM would bulb Metal Casting if we didn't have Math yet. Going on this idea, here's a sequence to get a great person in 9 turns, with an 82% chance of it being a GM:

1) Hire 1 scientist and work 2 crab, 1 coast, grass cottage, fur, and deer.
2) Workers go build sheep pasture next turn.
3) When sheep are pastured on turn 68, work sheep instead of coast.
4) 1 worker roads sheep and other begins prechopping western hill forest.
5) Pop8 on turn 70. Hire a second scientist.
6) Great person is born on turn 75. If a GM, bulb MC, and then trade for Math if possible.
7) On turn 75 after MC bulb, workers chop remaining grass forests.
8) On turn 77, one worker chops prechopped forest.

If we get a GS instead, we can bulb Philosophy or build an academy.

This sounds like a good idea to buy some insurance. If we are unlucky and get two merchants the 2nd one can be used for paper. I think the first GS should be used for an Academy. Right now an Academy would yield 16 bpt and that number will only be growing. So in the time from now until Communism the Academy will provide more beakers than the cost of Philosophy. Philosophy can be self researched or traded for but only a GS can build the Academy.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Went back and checked the saves and logs from several test games. I found Monarchy showing up around turn 88 to 92 and that I was able to trade for it around turn 97 to 101. I held Alphabet for a time in those games, could this have delayed the discovery of Monarchy in any way?

We are currently at turn 66. It looks more like 25 to 30 turns before Monarchy may be available.

That's a long time. Building a forge only means two extra or about 6 turns of growth with a Granary. We can push the happy cap 1 further with temple and grow a little above the happy cap. Maybe it will work out...