SGOTM 07 - Xteam

[leif erikson]

I don't have excel

I copy into Word without sucess. Can't find way to locate and then save in Word. Be glad to just let Gator keep me informed.

That answers that question.

The spreadsheet is a tool to try to predict when a civ will make demands on us so we can be prepared to deal with them. I have cut and pasted the log portion into a word document so you can, hopefully, see what Gator is trying to accomplish. He also included in the spreadsheet, in tabular format, the info he has posted previously concerning types of data Civ4 uses to make diplomatic decisions. In the end, it is "programed" into the spreadsheet to provide us with, hopefully, useful information. The Word document, which shows what the output looks like FYI, is attached below:

 

[DJMGator13]

As long as the turn logs are noted I can keep this updated.

Here is a link to a free Excel viewer from the MS website. It will allow you to view and print but not create new spreadsheets. It looks to be about a 10MB download.

 

[DJMGator13]

I did a little looking at the save and here are a few quick things. leif mentioned that the next cultural border will add another clam, it will also add a fish and should occur in 22 turns at the present +11cpt rate. We should try to trade that clam for a wheat or rice, something the granary will add health to.

Looking at the diplo forecast for the next turnset, this will be greatly influenced by any DOW. Currently we should only receive offers of tech trades for our Alpha and for open borders. We may possibly get some stop trading requests because our attitude level is too low with some AI's. Here's my guess at what the next contact might be, without any wars. If wars break out then this WILL change because join war has greater odds than some of the items I choose, like all the stop trading ones.

• @1360BC Prediction of next contact
• Asoka - tech trade
• Alexander - tech trade / open border @ T85
• Toku - stop trading (we're below the tech trade threshold)
• Washington - tech trade @ T94 way > stop trading
• Elizabeth - tech trade > open border
• J Ceasar - tech trade @ T94 way > stop trading
• Capac - tech trade
• Fredeick - tech trade
• Isabella - stop trading (we're below the tech trade threshold)
• Kublai - tech trade > open border

 

[leif erikson]

I did a little looking at the save and here are a few quick things. leif mentioned that the next cultural border will add another clam, it will also add a fish and should occur in 22 turns at the present +11cpt rate. We should try to trade that clam for a wheat or rice, something the granary will add health to.

Looks like I'd better get my eyes in focus...
Not sure how I missed those fish? Once the border expands, we'll have two Crabs, one Fish and one Clam. That Harbor is looking better and better. We'll need to keep in mind Work Boats for the next set.

I will be very interested to see if your predictions come true.

The graphs look like they are on steroids or something? The lines are going every which way??
Are we all playing the same save?

 

[Cactus Pete]

leif, why are most of the numbers in your last column (predicting turn of next demand?)crossed out?

 

[leif erikson]

leif, why are most of the numbers in your last column (predicting turn of next demand?)crossed out?

As Gator set up the chart, he probably knows for sure.
It looks to me as though he is trying to differentiate between the results of a contact we initiate versus one that the AI initiates. All of the entries that have crossouts are those that we initiate. I suspect that they are supposed to be underlines that somehow show up wrong in the spreadsheet?

I forgot to ask Gator about this yesterday because I was wondering the same thing when I first looked at it. Gator?

 

[DJMGator13]

leif, why are most of the numbers in your last column (predicting turn of next demand?)crossed out?

If we initiate the contact it looks like it doesn't reset the "delay" counter for the AI. Good example was on turn 62 when we initiate a tech trade with Washington, then 2 turns later he came back "offering" a tech trade that we refused. So, the cycle of the AI demand remained set to "delay" schedule. Based on Washington offering a tech trade on turn 64 he shouldn't offer another tech trade again until turn 94 because of the 30 turn contact delay. This won't stop Washington from contacting us for another diplo event.

The crossed out turn numbers were because I was applying the delay to ALL contacts, not just to the AI initiated ones. I went back and crossed thru the ones initiated by us, since the delay does not apply.

 

[leif erikson]

The crossed out turn numbers were because I was applying the delay to ALL contacts, not just to the AI initiated ones. I went back and crossed thru the ones initiated by us, since the delay does not apply.

That clears things up.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

Yay, after a very busy week...the weekend is finally here!

The MM plan is a slight modification to Shannon's.

1) Hire 1 scientist and work 2 crab, 1 MARBLE , grass cottage, fur, and deer.
2) Workers go build sheep pasture next turn.
3) When sheep are pastured on turn 68, work sheep instead of MARBLE.
4) 1 worker roads sheep and other begins prechopping EASTERN hill forest (we get +1commerce on this because it is riverside).
5) Pop8 on turn 71. Hire a second scientist.
Literature and granary both come in on the same turn as growth and we switch to Great Lib.
Change citizen on sheep tile to Stone.
6) Great person is born on turn 76. If a GM, bulb MC, and then trade for Math if possible.
7) On turn 76 after MC bulb, workers chop remaining grass forests to complete Great Library.
8) On turn 78, one worker chops prechopped forest into a forge.

If we get a GS instead - build an academy.

After Literature -> CoL

Citizens switch to growth tiles as long as we have happy faces to spare. Workers proceed to cottage grassland tiles.

Warrior will make his way home for city garrison duties since we have investigated all the civs we have open borders with.

I think we can safely open borders with Eliz since she is no ones worst enemy - do we want to do this?

Future tech trades with Fred/Wash/Asoka will start giving us diplo penalties with the buddist crew. Are we concerned?

Fred will have dye to trade eventually - we might want to give him marble for it as soon as he connects it.

Planning to play in around 6 hours time, after my rugby game.

 

[leif erikson]

Yay, after a very busy week...the weekend is finally here!

Plan looks good. Please see notes below:

If we get a GS instead - build an academy.

After Literature -> CoL

Citizens switch to growth tiles as long as we have happy faces to spare. Workers proceed to cottage grassland tiles.

Once GLibrary is completed, do we maximize our use of Cottage tiles to get them moving towards Towns?

In trading, besides Math, Iron Working would be nice so we can see if we have any Iron around. Also, should Iron show under a Cottage, there is no need to work it as we need to mine it anyway.

Warrior will make his way home for city garrison duties since we have investigated all the civs we have open borders with.

I think we can safely open borders with Eliz since she is no ones worst enemy - do we want to do this?

I agree we can Open Borders with Lizzie. Perhaps the Warrior should go on a diplomatic trip to impress Lizzie with our might and power?

Future tech trades with Fred/Wash/Asoka will start giving us diplo penalties with the buddist crew. Are we concerned?

I'm not concerned as we need to think about who to declare on soon enough. Should they declare, we need a tech lead to buy someone else in with us.

Fred will have dye to trade eventually - we might want to give him marble for it as soon as he connects it.

Are we planning on building National Epic or Heroic Epic? If we are going to wait until later, then the trade is fine. Both are double production speed with Marble, but they also contaminate the gene pool. National Epic will speed those Scientists...

Planning to play in around 6 hours time, after my rugby game.

Good luck. Don't forget the Haka...

 

[ShannonCT]

Looks like a good plan.

I'm OK with opening borders with Lizzy.

I think we should build National Epic before trading away marble. National Epic after forge?

I think the Buddhists will be our targets soon. Don't worry about keeping them happy. If you're asked to join a war against them, go ahead.

 

[rrau]

Sounds good. I'll be out of town from Sunday night through Saturday at a conference and not sure about internet access at it.

 

[leif erikson]

Sounds good. I'll be out of town from Sunday night through Saturday at a conference and not sure about internet access at it.

Have a great and safe trip. Hope we get to hear from you.

Instead of XTeam, perhaps we should be called the Road Warriors?

 

[Cactus Pete]

Agree . . . NEpic after forge. Like to see where we are before deciding on next build.

Frederick hasn't researched Math yet, so it should be a while before he obtains Calendar and improves 2 dyes. I do agree that obtaining dyes from him deserves some priority (makes theater worth 2 happy faces). One possibility would be to trade crabs or sheep (even though that would reduce our health temporarily) as soon as dyes become available. When we finish building the epics, we can switch marble for crabs or sheep on the same turn and keep the dyes.

Monotheism may become available too, which would allow us to switch to Organized Religion. It could be worth the lost turn for revolting (which is admittedly expensive) and the 1gpt cost, since it will speed production (at least 2, probably 3 or even 4, hammers per turn) and would give us the option of building a missionary to convert the Incas.

 

[Jimmy Thunder]

Played 11 turns. The game is at the start of turn 77. I have uploaded the save for everyone to browse. I would be able to play 4-5 more turns tomorrow or otherwise pass it on to CP as is.

>>current save file here: http://gotm.civfanatics.net/saves/civ4sgotm7/Xteam_SG007_BC0950_01.Civ4SavedGame

We have the Great Library now and we got a Great Merchant who bulbed Metal Casting.

Tech trades have opened up a little more. Lots of Ai's came with request for tech trades, they were all refused (but without diplo penalty of course).

Here is the summary:

T66 Hire scientist, Open borders with Elizabeth
IBT Asoka offers trade : Ironworking for Alphabet (I refuse)
T67 Move workers, start pasture
IBT Elizabeth makes city on western ice shelf next to clams
T68 Zzz
IBT Elizabeth asks for Alphabet for free (I refuse and we get a -1 with Elizabeth)
T69 Worker roads sheep, the other moves to eastern plains hill forest
IBT Alex offers trade: Iron working for Alphabet (I refuse)
Merit Ptah born in land far away
T70 Fred and HC willing to trade Math, Asoka has Currency
Worker finishes road, other worker prechops for one turn
IBT Elizabeth switches to Christianity Xi Ling Shi born far away
T71 Literature is in, start to research CoL
Asoka will trade Monotheism, Alex will trade Math
Move workers to grassland forests
IBT Fred offers trade: Math for Alphabet (I decline)
T72 Liz has Alphabet, but this doesn’t mean we have to trade it in a hurry since SCT calculated she won’t trade monopoly techs until 3 others know it
Workers prechop
IBT Kublai offers open borders: I refuse
HC offers tech trade: Math for Alphabet (I decline)
T73 Workers prechop
IBT Asoka has Monarchy
Nabu-Himanni born far away
T74 Workers delay chop and start road, Asoka has construction and war elephants
IBT Elizabeth offers tech trade: Ironworking for Literature (I refuse)
T75 Workers delay chop and finish roads
IBT Asoka builds Hanging Gardens, We get a Great Merchant (70% chance)
T76 Bulb Metal Casting
Trade Alphabet for Maths with Fred
Trade Iron Working for Alphabet off Julius
Trade Monotheism and 50 gold for Alphabet off Asoka
We have iron west of Beijing on the ice
Workers finish their chops for 75 hammers each – Great Lib due in 1 turn
IBT Kublai requests we cancel trade agreements with Fred (I refuse and we get -1 with Kublai)
T77 Build Great Library, Elizabeth has Code of Laws

Haven’t made any other moves yet.

Every turn I checked that no AI was preparing for war.

In the current turn Julius will go to war with Izzy for Metal Casting and Literature, this is the first breakthrough of it's kind. No one else is willing to declare war outright for our techs. Asoka is becoming more and more the score leader, but his diplo screen says that he won't declare on Izzy right now because she is a close friend. I wonder if this will change if someone is already at war with her? Is Asoka willing to join an existing war against a close friend?

I am liking the thought of having Asoka as our PA partner, if we can just get him into an early war shortly.

Elizabeth is also a good war target since she is the only Christian religion. Unfortunately we don't have enough techs to bribe Julius into declaring, and of course she is right on our doorstep so we would actually need to do some fighting.

Aside from the diplo stuff, the plan is to:
Build forge
Research CoL
Cottage grassland tiles
Grow onto our cottages as much as possible (continuing to grow and ignoring the health soft cap for now)
Trade for Monarchy
Research Civil Service
Build health buildings or National Epic

 

[ShannonCT]

Looks like everything went according to plan. Well done.

I hope our culture will be enough to give us the fish and clams next to Lizzy's new city. She's definitely a potential target now. And Issy is lining up to be an easy target for a dogpile. We might need to launch that war soon. If we start it, we can probably pull in Julius, Fred, Toku, Washington, and maybe Asoka. Maybe we wait a little longer to see if Asoka will go to cautious with Issy rather than pleased.

I think we should be able to get Monarchy soon. Asoka should trade it when one more AI knows it, and it should be a high priority on the AI's tech list. So we can hold onto MC, Lit, and CoL until we can trade several techs at once.

I think JT should play more turns this weekend, after others have had a chance to comment.

 

[leif erikson]

The plan looks like it is working quite well so far!

Check out the graphs when you go to pick up the save.

Played 11 turns. The game is at the start of turn 77. I have uploaded the save for everyone to browse. I would be able to play 4-5 more turns tomorrow or otherwise pass it on to CP as is.

I think JT should play more turns this weekend, after others have had a chance to comment.

I think JT should continue as well, up to ten more turns if you wish. You may stop wherever you wish.

In the current turn Julius will go to war with Izzy for Metal Casting and Literature, this is the first breakthrough of it's kind. No one else is willing to declare war outright for our techs. Asoka is becoming more and more the score leader, but his diplo screen says that he won't declare on Izzy right now because she is a close friend. I wonder if this will change if someone is already at war with her? Is Asoka willing to join an existing war against a close friend?

Elizabeth is also a good war target since she is the only Christian religion. Unfortunately we don't have enough techs to bribe Julius into declaring, and of course she is right on our doorstep so we would actually need to do some fighting.

It is interesting that Asoka considers Izzy a close friend. He is at 0 with her (+1 for years of peace and +1 for Open Borders and a -2 for heathen religion). Yet, she is at -2 with Asoka (same + reeasons but a -4 for heathen religion) Given a bit more time, this should change in our favor, I think?

Having Julius attack Izzy is a good start as Izzy can't get to us. The problem may be that, until Asoka changes his stance with Izzy, we will get a -1 with Asoka for declaring on a friend. Looking at the power graph, Julius should take Izzy fairly readily, so we shouldn't wait too long. Please keep an eye on the relationship of Asoka to Izzy. If Julius takes Izzy out, that will increase his power and research rate as he'll begin to gain more cities.

On Lizzie, I also agree that we need to ruin Nottingham. Washington is Cautious towards us and Pleased with Lizzie (but she is starting to get heathen religion negatives with him). He has Open Borders with Lizzie, so I think we need to wait until this relation sours as well, hopefully, soon.

I am liking the thought of having Asoka as our PA partner, if we can just get him into an early war shortly.

At this point, I think it is a choice of Asoka or Julius. We shall have to watch how it develops.

Aside from the diplo stuff, the plan is to:
Build forge
Research CoL
Cottage grassland tiles
Grow onto our cottages as much as possible (continuing to grow and ignoring the health soft cap for now)
Trade for Monarchy
Research Civil Service
Build health buildings or National Epic

I think National Epic next. Depending upon how the border expansion goes, we may need to throw in a Work Boat for the Fish, maybe another for the Clams? We should keep an eye out for tech trades of Monarchy and Compass so we can change to Hereditary Rule and build a Harbor.

Since we're contemplating War, when do we fit in Machinery and Cho-Ko-Nu's?

I hope our culture will be enough to give us the fish and clams next to Lizzy's new city. She's definitely a potential target now. And Issy is lining up to be an easy target for a dogpile. We might need to launch that war soon. If we start it, we can probably pull in Julius, Fred, Toku, Washington, and maybe Asoka. Maybe we wait a little longer to see if Asoka will go to cautious with Issy rather than pleased.

I agree.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Looks like everything went according to plan. Well done. Yes indeed.

I hope our culture will be enough to give us the fish and clams next to Lizzy's new city. She's definitely a potential target now. And Issy is lining up to be an easy target for a dogpile. We might need to launch that war soon. If we start it, we can probably pull in Julius, Fred, Toku, Washington, and maybe Asoka. Maybe we wait a little longer to see if Asoka will go to cautious with Issy rather than pleased. Once we have Construction and cats (and Swords would be nice), we can easily raze Nottingham. Probably want a galley for defense as well. Does it make sense to declare on Lizzy before then? Hopefully, she'll build some workboats in the interim. Izzy is a better first target. What would make Asoka grow cautious towards Izzy?

I think we should be able to get Monarchy soon. Asoka should trade it when one more AI knows it, and it should be a high priority on the AI's tech list. So we can hold onto MC, Lit, and CoL until we can trade several techs at once. That make sense. Let's discuss immediately gifting some techs to our brothers of the faith, plus the Incas? Who can we get monopoly tech trading with?

I think JT should play more turns this weekend, after others have had a chance to comment. Yes.

If our first GS is going for an Academy, then Pacifism is many turns away. If we're going to revolt to Slavery and Organized Religion, now would seem to be the time. The alternative would be to wait for Hereditary rule and switch all three at once, but I think that will cost two turns and would represent no efficiency -- so right now, if we're going to do it.

Since health issues will minimize the number of scientists that we will be able to run and still grow (assuming the likely event that we get Monarchy soon), building the NEpic to double the production of the GLIB scientists and any others that we can manage certainly continues to merit priority after the forge.

Two civs now have 2 dyes and Calendar. Those who have tested: How important is it not to miss out on one the dyes? Does Monarchy and Hereditary rule render that a minor consideration?

 

[DJMGator13]

Here's an updated diplo log. Again any DOW will change this drasticly. The AI's are choosing options that are at 50 and one of Liz's request was at 100. So as soon as there is warfare introduce the Join Wars demands will start to fly.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Thanks, Gator. I can open this, and I am able to make some sense out of it, but when my turn comes would it be reasonable to ask you to list a few of the most probable requests to which the optimal response would not be obvious?

Also, would very much like your thoughts regarding my query above: "Let's discuss immediately gifting some techs to our brothers of the faith, plus the Incas? Who can we get monopoly tech trading with?"