SGOTM 08 - Smurkz

OK, I'll proceed, although it'll be closer to 6:00pm before I can play again.

Regarding the Yo build (sorry to obsess), it looks like from the plan in post 979 that we get a galley on turn 123, then an axe on 126. From my autolog post 1073, however, we got the galley on 123, and then an axe on 124, whereupon I started building a cat, which was the next planned build. Either I misread the spreadsheet or somehow we got an early axe.
 
Humm, it looks as if the Events column and production columns are out of synch, sorry about that. So yes, there should have been another axe after that axe, but like you noted, we lost no axes but two cats so in hindsight building a cat instead was the right thing to do. :)
 
The 3 wounded axes are now fully healed. I used one unpromo'd and one Barrage1 cat to reduce Kwa to 4%--we have 1 CR1, one Barrage1, and 1 unpromo'd cat left to attack and/or reduce Kwa to 0%. With the 4% city defense, a Combat1/Shock phant is 72.1% vs a Combat1 impi (just arrived), a CR1 axe is 57.5% vs a 10% fortified CG1 archer, and a CR1 cat is 39.8% vs a 5% fortified Combat1/Shock sword.

I didn't reduce (yet) all the way to 0% because I thought maybe we'd want to attack with 3 cats (and lever up the Barrage1 to 5 XPs after hitting with 2 CR1 cats). I don't know how much of a difference 4% defense will make.

Pura just had a culture pop and we now control the 2 jungle tiles west of the lake. Yo is 1 (or 2?) turns away from another GP.

Out west, the galley has explored enough to see that the "southern island" it has been following is part of the mainland, same as Jacques is on.

I've had to tweak the Rockport tiles to get a pop expansion to 6 on the next turn (130).

If we can agree on whether or not to reduce Kwa to 0% before attacking, and how many cats to use, I can play again around 9pm. If we reduce to 0%, I'd say use the Barrage1 and then hit with 2 CR1's.
 
I'm too tired to make something out of it now, but it looks good so far. I can do some counts on whether we want to bomb again or do more collateral, but it'll have to wait until tomorrow morning.

What exactly did you do to "tweak" the tiles in Rockport? What was wrong with the plan as stated? We really can't afford to lose even one more hammer or we'll delay AW.
 
The save has now been submitted.

Working the tiles specified in the spreadsheet, Rockport was going to take 3 turns to get to pop 6 as of turn 128, 1 more than the spreadsheet expected. For 128, I switched the stone to a coast tile, then back to stone for turn 129. I know that lost us some hammers, but I figured it was more important to get that extra citizen on time, lest we lose more hammers or mess up the whip timing.

I'm working on posting the autolog...
 
Continuing Turn 128...
Xcalibrator Rockport--worked coast vs stone to get pop6 on turn 130
Yosmurkzhappy begins: Axeman (3 turns)
A Mine was built near Rockport
Axeman promoted: Medic I
Axeman promoted: City Raider I
Ballista Elephant promoted: Combat I
Smurkz-harapura grows: 8
Smurkz-harapura's borders expand

IBT:

Turn 129/500 (350 AD) [22-Nov-2008 18:03:36]
Xcalibrator Rockport--working stone again, not coast
Ballista Elephant promoted: Shock
Axeman promoted: City Raider I
Catapult promoted: City Raider I
Xcalibrator Pura culture expands to 2 jungle tiles W of lake

We have 1 spear, 2 phants, 3 axes, and 5 cats SE of Kwa. 2 cats have already been used to reduce the defenses to 4%. Of the remaining 3, one has Barrage1 (4/5XP), one has CityRaider1, and the last is currently umpromoted but has 3 XPs.

Of the 2 phants, one has Combat1+Shock (6/5XP), the other is unpromoted but can get 2 promos. Of the 3 axes, one has 0 XPs, one has 1, and the other has 3 (?) and has been promoted to CityRaider1.

There are 3 fully healed and unmoved axes sitting NW of Pura, along with 1 phant. There's 1 cat 2 tiles west of Yo--can't remember if he's moved or not, but I think not. The grass tile 2 W of Pura is now roaded, with a worker sitting on it. Our cultural borders have just extended to the 2 jungle tiles W and SW of the lake. See post1080 for the lay of the land (2 turns ago).

Once the phant takes out the impi, the odds will be significantly better than 72%, since the 2nd phant and an axe can take out the archer and sword. I'm inclined to use one of the non-CR1 cats to take the defenses to 0, then skip the rest of the cats since their odds still won't be good and go straight to the pretty good odds of phants and axe attacking Kwa, but don't feel strongly. We'll have another phant soon from Hari, and another cat is on the way from Yo.
 
Xcalibrator said:
Once the phant takes out the impi, the odds will be significantly better than 72%, since the 2nd phant and an axe can take out the archer and sword. I'm inclined to use one of the non-CR1 cats to take the defenses to 0, then skip the rest of the cats since their odds still won't be good and go straight to the pretty good odds of phants and axe attacking Kwa, but don't feel strongly. We'll have another phant soon from Hari, and another cat is on the way from Yo.
Click to expand...

I like this plan. Save the cats for the next city.
 
In the interests of keeping things moving, if there's a decision on how to conduct the attack and someone is ready and willing to take over the turnset in the European morning, I have no objection; I've played more or less 10 turns. If not, I'm happy to keep going for another turn, but may have to bribe the kids for a turn on the PC.

Apologies again for missing the tile assignment in Rockport back when the pop went to 5 (or was it 4?). Something wasn't quite right in the revised spreadsheet this past turn or two, and I figured it was easier to get forgiveness than (speedy) permission to work the coast tile for a turn to make sure we got the pop expansion on time this time. We're not likely to lose the race to Angkor Wat, though. Yes, Niklas, I do take this seriously, really. :blush:
 
Well, it may have been the best thing to do, but it does mean we will delay AW one turn. But that is as it is now. I still don't understand how it could have ended up the way it did, would you happen to have the autosaves so you can see what tiles Rockport worked each turn? I just want to make sure the sheet is correct from here on.

I'll have a look at the save and give my opinions on Cats vs other units. I'd hate losing a Dumbo though.
 
The autosaves won't help, as I only played about 1.5 turns, but the previous save (where I took over from Methos) should provide the vital clue. I can't use the computer to check now, but the status then was that we were going to be one food short of getting to pop6 on time. I can't comment on the details of what was actually in the granary, etc.

If getting AW on time, or AQAP, is vital, there are some trees three squares [[EDIT: Sorry, 4 squares]] to the west on the mainland--2 or 3 tiles, in fact. Perhaps it would be worthwhile to ferry over one of the mainland workers, assuming he can get there in time.

One last detail--the worker plan didn't seem quite right for Rockport. 128 said that the mine on a desert hill would complete on turn 128, then "move to Rockport" on 129, then start a road on "desert hill" on 130 which would be completed on 132, then "move to roaded forest, start chop." Since the worker was on an unroaded desert hill when he completed the mine, I left him there and started a road. This will not delay his move to the roaded forest--in fact he'll arrive a turn early (I think?).
 
[Edit: d'oh! We're already on turn 129, so shift everything down 1 turn.]

Yes, it looks like we can get AW on time if we bring over another worker and chop on the mainland W of Rockport. Please triple-check this plan while referring to a map:
128 Cancel Rockport worker road building, move galley toward desert S of Hari
129 Move RPworker to RP, continue galley move, move mainland worker to pickup
130 Galley arrives, worker boards, RPworker arrives at roaded forest and starts a chop(1)
131 Galley moves toward unroaded RP forest, RPworker chop2
132 Galley drops worker on unroaded forest, RPworker chop3
133 Galley moves [Edit: SW of] RP, worker chop1, RP worker to unroaded forest
134 Chop2, RP worker starts road on forest
135 Chop3, road complete
136 Move both workers on road toward RP [Edit: workers can board this turn--saves 1 turn]
137 Workers board galley, move galley W to mainland forest
138 Workers offload
139 Workers chop1,2
140 Workers chop3!
141 Workers board galley for home, AW movie plays

If we can afford the unhappiness, maybe the RP axe could precede the workers and arrive on the mainland to guard against barbs.
 
My gut feeling is the same as Chris'. It's a lot of work, and quite some risk, for just one turn. Sure it's bad to miss a turn, but better to cut our losses and move on, IMO. We'll hopefully have better use for those forests later on, too.

I had a look at the save, and I noted a Shaka WB one turn from netting the Clams by Kwa. That means that if we wait one turn with capturing it, we will have the clams netted without having to build a WB ourselves. I really think we should do that, it should be worth the delay. We could kill all but one units this turn (to avoid the extra +5% fortify bonus) and take out the last one out next turn.

Here are some odds to ponder:

A CR1 Catapult has only 39.5% odds vs the Sword, but then the next CR1 Catapult would have 77.1% against the Archer (assuming the Sword is damaged enough). That would bring the Impi down to 78 hp through collateral. Our Dumbo would have 94.9% against him then. After that it should be a simple thing to take out the sword and archer, both will be severely damaged.

Or we could attack like Xc suggested. The Dumbo would have 71.2% chance against the Impi (right? You said 72.1% but the calculations give 71.2% :shifty:). A second C1 Shock Dumbo would have 91.1% chance against the Sword, but only 89.4% against the Archer so that would come up first. On the other hand, with C2 instead it would be 95.5% against the Archer and only 78.6% against the Sword. A CR1 Axe would only have only 63.3% against the Archer.

With these numbers, I would probably send in at least one CR1 catapult first, to soften the defenses.
 
Note that my AW worker plan started on the wrong turn! But I found a way to save one turn, so it would still work. But yes, probably not worth the trouble or risk.

Interesting about the clams workboat. Pura could build a WB, though, and then it would take 3 turns to get there and drop nets. How sure are we that Shaka will still net the clams with his city so endangered? The BTS logic is now sophisticated enough that the AI will pull out naval units before imminent capture, so maybe he won't drop nets??? But I abstain on the voting.

As for the attack, I guess go with two CR1's, but precede that with the Barrage cat knocking down the defense to 0%. If we go for the 2-turn attack, and if there are good odds for any of the cats on the 2nd turn, attack with those first to get more XPs before attacking with the killer units.

I'll be away for the next few hours--it would be great to come back and hear news of Kwa's capture. :)
 
Despite my fears that we're being too clever/cute (as with luring Shaka toward the cows), I think that taking 2 turns to attack Kwa is probably the way to go--we'll only be able to post 1 or 2 units there if we take it this turn, but if we wait until next turn (even if Shaka sends in another unit), we'll be better able to protect the city by moving quite a few units to its south, or even SSW if the cultural boundaries cooperate (which we ought to be able to deduce). Let's just remember to make the most of gaining XPs for our cats--CR2 and/or Barage2 would be very handy. And if Shaka saves us 30 hammers by netting the clams, that's a bonus.

Play! Play now!
 
Do we know what we're going to do with our next Great Person, presumably a Scientist? He's coming in a turn or two. If I'm reading things correctly, we could pop Compass (400 beakers) or wait a couple turns until we research Civil Service and then pop Paper (600), which would allow us to research Education (1800). Or we could settle, or burn for a golden age, or....

[Edit: Duh. If we hang onto him and research Paper manually, then we can pop Education. That would seem the way to go.]
 
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