SGOTM 10 - Murky Waters

LowtherCastle · Sep 13, 2009

Cities we urgently need to settle

Most urgent
+ Bombay 3n1nw (Else we need a sub or ICBM. Also blocks G to the north.)
+ Cuman 2se1s or 3se (Gives us nuke access to all dG cities and LondonW/settler, assuming dG settles his wines)
+ York@4 tiles
+ Wash@4 tiles (could be blocked by galleon)

Urgent but could be galleons till AIs have Astro
Galley-blockers:
+ east of Roos
+ west of dG
+ west of G

Urgent
+ Gold n of Roosy
+ something n of Mao

Endgame settlers
+ London
+ Shanghai or Beijing
+ others

Erkon · Sep 13, 2009

Is this view correct then on the upcoming turn sets:

We bulb a bunch of GS and build an Academy in Murkow
We get Oxford in Murkow
We cottage Murkow
We grab Communism with Liberalism
We run pacifism + caste during the GA, then slavery + OR during the build phase

What then?

We switch to State Property at ~T70, right? Do we plan for caste then as well to get a bunch of GS? Or do we stay in Slavery for settlers? If we go caste, we build the settlers by hand, but then we prefer pacifism as well, no? And switching three civics at the same time costs 2 turns, but two civics cost one turn even with the extra pop/cities we'll have?

In other words: going down the bulb path means that we produce less settlers. Going down massive expansion means our research will suffer due to less bulbs.

We need settlers pretty early on so that they can grow and then be rushed for tacticals, but we also need the scientists early one since they can't bulb later.

Do we plan to switch back to caste/pacifism once Kremlin, Oxford, NE etc is up? If so, when do we build the settlers? :hmm:

LowtherCastle · Sep 13, 2009

Erkon said:
Is this view correct then on the upcoming turn sets:

This is how I see it, using your template:

We bulb a bunch of GS ~~and build an Academy in Murkow~~ Not sure when/if we'll have a GS for an Academy.
We get Oxford in Murkow Eventually
We cottage Murkow
We grab Communism with Liberalism
We run pacifism + caste during the GA, then slavery + OR during the build phase
We settle on stone T71 and Kremlin is done T72.
We switch to SP + pacifism(?) or out of Mercantilism(?) at T70-T80.
We build 5 unis and Oxford asap.
We also build NE somewhere, my preference would be Murkow, simply because with Oxford, those extra scis create more beakers.
We gradually make another GP (in Murkow with its 5scis?) to go with the GSpy for a GA around T100, revolt to pacifism+CS, and crank out ~6 more GSes. (This part I haven't done any calcs on.)
We crank out 5-10 settlers asap.

Unresolved issues:
How can we grow Murkow and create the extra GP for the GA?
Does this slow our research down too much? (I doubt it.)
Do we also want/need an Academy?
Is it better to forget the slingshot and spamming settlers and focus on fast research? (I doubt it, but what do I know?)

klarius · Sep 14, 2009

I still don't understand how NE in Murkow shall be better than in CC. We need Murkow at size ~24 if we want to work the tiles also, to even get near. How shall we get the health for that?
If we really want NE in Murkow (giving up working tiles), we should build it now.

Erkon · Sep 14, 2009

I thought we had agree on NE in CC?

LC - good luck with your TS. :goodjob:

LowtherCastle · Sep 14, 2009

Of course NE in CC. We want to be able to starve it down for an extra GS at some point. I forgot about that. Anyway, having enough health is purely speculative right now, so it's not a good choice. If we had to steal deer and spices (if even possible) from barbs, it would mean building settlers/units we don't really need, etc.

Playing my turnset, but I won't be making reports while in progress, because during BOTMs my computer has been locking up when I do that more than a couple of times. I take notes instead.

LowtherCastle · Sep 14, 2009

LC Turnset T45-54

T45 1510AD
MM per PPP.
Educ at 10%
warrior sees no barb galley at parthian
Roos has a bunch of workers flipping Mao the Chicken-Hearted the bird
Horses to Roos for 1gpt
crabs to Churchill

IT
barb warrior appears sw of our lands
G explorer sits tight

T46 1515AD
Educ 113b, switch to 100% because it's almost too late
galley blocks Parthian on south side, spots barb warrior on sheep peninsula
warrior sees no barb galley
New York is working 3+1 specs at -1f it seems
knight moves to Pete so he can attack either barb warrior or G exp next turn.

IT
barb sw vanishes
G explorer crosses our river

T47 1520AD
Educ 239/2721 (gives klarius 1pop leeway :cool:

)
Set to Astro at 10% 14bpt (+1)
knight can gain 2XP by attacking from the south across the river. 7.2/10 5XP
G will DoP + WM + 20g
galley near GC begins its cycle of blocking the north then south side of Sheep Peninsula

IT --

T48 1525AD
Astro 15b ??? Just as in my tests, Astro does NOT get the 20% prereq bonus?!?!?
Switch to 20% for +1bpt
Roos to +9!

IT
G has gunpowder!!! Smart little b!tch.
G borders expand
LC spreads Confucianism to Sala!!!

Barb galley moves to Parthian crabs!!!!
Roos completes a WE which protects his worker closest to home :crazyeye:

T49 1530AD
Astro 46b, I calculate that I need to go to 0% or we'll have too many beakers in it on T67.
1pop galley in Sala. I'll block the barb galley next turn with this galley and the CS tri. Perfect timing if klarius has the code correctly deciphered.
sivler mine done, Murkow gives up a warrior for CC

IT
barb galley moves to whales-e
G the D!ck sends out both caravels toward Murkow

T50 1535AD
Astro 54
wb done in Murkow, trapped by G caravels so I Cf
GE in Pete
Miss in Pete, re-start mace build since we have conf in Sala now
Salley galley done, load 2 wkrs and block barb galley
Roos to +10 FRIENDLY!!!
WMs to Church for 50g

IT
barb galley retreats! klarius gets kudos for the 10,000th time :goodjob:

T51 1540AD
Astro 62
COnf spread successfully to CC, continue mace build in Pete
Trade maps some more for gold and defogging
Marble Island up north has 2 fish and another seafood!!!
No longer G's worst enemy, now it's dG
Knight 6XP after eating barbmeat
Sala galley moving to transport settler
cancel crabs to Roos for Pete's sake

IT --

T52 1545AD
Astro 70
galley moves to block Sheep south and bingo! the barb galley is now 1 tile east of the blocking tile
2pop lib in Sala
+2 with Churchill now
+11 with Roos

IT
barb yoyo retreats :lol:

T53 1550AD
Astro 78
trade fish to dG for 1gpt

IT --

T54 1555AD
Astro 86
chops for settler done, settler done next turn

Save uploaded. Time to stop and make a decision on whether to GA this turn or next. Also, klarius, please double check that the Astro beakers are okay, in case I need to switch out for one turn or add more.

I open borders with G so we can see what he's got.
move the galley with knight back to GC-e for disembarking, then blocking south again.
Switch research to GP for 1 turn, because I think we'll run over otherwise. (my original calcs didn't include the 2pop in Alcatraz and also not hiring a sci in Sala).

IT
G now has 3 workers (man he makes them fast) and they're building roads...toward us...

T55 1560AD
moved lb to see Delhi, G has a musket plus some other units
We can finally see Roosy's research: Education(5)!!! So much for that punk beelining his favorite civic (Representation). So much for that chump trading us a tech.
Settler done in Murkow.

Over to klarius.

Here is your Session Turn Log from 1510 AD to 1555 AD:

Spoiler :

Here is your Session Turn Log from 1555 AD to 1560 AD:

Spoiler :

Erkon · Sep 14, 2009

One day someone has to explain how this galley-blocking works. LC, you never walked the plank, did you?

EDIT: checked the save. Why are we running an engineer in Sala? We're not planning a GS there, are we?

Do we know for sure that we can revolt into and out of OR without any turn penalties? If so, then we should delay one turn. Else we fire the GA this turn.

LowtherCastle · Sep 14, 2009

Erkon said:
One day someone has to explain how this galley-blocking works. LC, you never walked the plank, did you?

EDIT: checked the save. Why are we running an engineer in Sala? We're not planning a GS there, are we?

Do we know for sure that we can revolt into and out of OR without any turn penalties? If so, then we should delay one turn. Else we fire the GA this turn.

I forgot to switch to the sci in Sala (and Pete)... :blush:

We can switch into OR for free because that's still during the GA. Afterwards, it just depends on what we're planning to do.

Here's a picture of galley blocking. klarius earlier said that if a galley is loaded with attackers and heading for GC or Sala and we block its path (so it has to go on ocean tiles to get past), it won't attack but instead will return to Parthian. Furthermore, for the Sheep north and south, it's sufficient to block every other turn, so we only need one ship to do that. EDIT: Of course, if it happens to be a spawned galley, then it might attack. Luckily, that wasn't the case here.

klarius · Sep 15, 2009

Go for the GA next turn. That just looks tidier to me.

What I don't like is that you loaded our knight on the galley. It's anyway dangerous to do a barb adventure (there might be other galleys around). But there is also gunny Gandhi preparing a war against us. And he has built some units lately. His power increased by 24 on top of the 12 for GP.

klarius · Sep 15, 2009

A little bit digging in the SDK:

How come that peace loving Gandhi is ready to go to war so fast?
And also rather peaceful Churchill, who seems to prepare against de Gaulle.

The culprit is pacifism :eek:

in very small empires and by that a "feature" of the renaissance start.

BtS introduces an increase in war probability for unit spending percent.
And the percentage is relative to total spendings.
Emperor AI with 2 cities in pacifism will probably have 0-2g cost from maintainance and civics, while unit cost in pacifism can pretty easily reach 1-3g even with AI bonus.
50% unit spending with aggressive AI will make them ~170 times more likely to declare war than non aggresive with 0% unit cost.

4 city France (not building military early) may not have any unit cost, so the under normal conditions most war loving de Gaulle might be the most peaceful now (still 2% per turn). If he had ~50% unit spending, his war probability would go to 100%.

LowtherCastle · Sep 15, 2009

Turnset finished. Summary:

No one has education yet, Wash in ~5t. G has GP, which he may have bulbed, since he got a GE the turn before.
Educ is primed to bulb with a bit of beakers left over. Astro should be primed after two turns of the GA, as per my workout.
We have not started the GA yet.
Murkow has some overflow from the settler, so we could build a Stone settler with a 1pop right after the GA and connect stone ~T71 iirc.
GC is pre-building a galleon, Sala is building harbor, but maybe should also pre-build a galleon. Maybe CC too.
Pete just finished the mace, so we could get our horses back from Roos and build another knight next.
The galley-blocking needs to continue with Sheep-south next, because it got skipped this turn to pick up the knight. Landing the knight on the woods this turn could get an XP but the knight would be delayed in getting back to Pete a few turns.

klarius · Sep 15, 2009

Gandhi (we have seen him research edu in the beginning) has for sure bulbed GP and others may also do it, if they get engineers, now that wonders are out of the way. GP has just the right cost for emperor AI, it can be completly bulbed, but doesn't waste too many beakers.

Question is what to do with Gandhi. If we do nothing, he will declare at some time anyway (when did he get his hands full?), but that might be still >10 turns away.
If we declare now we can get more workers and maybe even his settler (which was due in 3-4 turns probably, looking in the last turn save).
But we also run the risk that Gandhi disturbs our seafood :eek:

, throwing off all nice calculations.
We also get a -1 from Roosy.

LowtherCastle · Sep 15, 2009

Gandhi's hands got messy between T52 and T53. How soon is it possible for him to DOW us? We could DoW fast and delay our GA till DoP. Not that I'm excited about that, but it would mean growing our cities a bit more, maybe popping an extra GS or something.

Assuming his cheapest bldg is rax at 67h, this is what happened in Delhi during my turnset:

T46 ---, pop8
T47 ---
T48 72h
T49 ---
T50 41h, pop9
T51 ---
T52 70h :eek:

T53 163h

T54 204h
T55 233h, pop9

For a pacifist, Gandhi seems to take a lot of steroids. Do you suppose he's settled half a dozen specialists already? EDIT: According to the log, Gandhi has spawned 3 GEs, the first 2 used on wonders, the third on GP presumably.

One more detail: Looks like Mao culture-bombed Etruscan. :mad:

That's either an ICBM or a sub + at least one drojf in the land of the midnight sun. Unless Mao kindly builds a chain of cities to it.

klarius · Sep 15, 2009

If I counted correctly :crazyeye:

, we are still no land target of Gandhi. Then it can only be a max war preparation. That would mean a minimum of 13 turns preparation in BTS epic (unless double our power, which is not the case).

It might be that Gandhi had a settler in production already before the last DoW. Then he switched away at the declaration and workers and military were more important then. Only T53 he switched back with some overflow from the last build. Still, around 30h means 2-3 turns for the settler to finish.

LowtherCastle · Sep 15, 2009

klarius said:
If I counted correctly , we are still no land target of Gandhi. Then it can only be a max war preparation. That would mean a minimum of 13 turns preparation in BTS epic (unless double our power, which is not the case).

It might be that Gandhi had a settler in production already before the last DoW. Then he switched away at the declaration and workers and military were more important then. Only T53 he switched back with some overflow from the last build. Still, around 30h means 2-3 turns for the settler to finish.

Sounds like we have a quandary because we really don't want to have any food disruption in CC during the GA. More important than preventing the settler, I would think, if we have to choose.

Do you have a good idea of where he'll decide to settle?

DO you have a klever idea how to do both?

Edit: Having him DoW 10t from now isn't necassarily bad, though, other than him getting his thrid city, because at this point it appears he's willing to trade us GP when enough know it. If we give him more negmods (by us DoWing him at some point), it might become hopeless.

klarius · Sep 15, 2009

Well, the idea would be to hope :crazyeye:

that his boats did go scouting and aren't back until peace.
Getting the settler might be impossible anyway (or at least risky) :eek:

. If it's built in 2 turns, it's probably on the hill W of wheat then. I assume he wants to the river with wheat and both furs.
I don't have the game now, but IIRC, that means we can barely reach it and have to attack with a still wounded knight w/o back-up.
If we declare before, the settler will not move out of the city as long as there are our units around (different than in vanilla or warlords, where it would come out with 2 escorts).

LowtherCastle · Sep 15, 2009

dagnabbit, seems I forgot to post my last post...It would have said this:

G's caravel pair peaked at us from within his cultural boundaries periodically throughout my turnset, including T50 when I CFed, T52 at clams-se and T53 at clams-e.

What's the soonest we might be able to DoP if we capture a unit of two of his?

Here's another thought: We could settle at the site I marked 12f (to the west of the furs). It's a nice site long term, for example we could use it to build Manhatten and/or an ICBM, and is within 4tiles of virtually every city he might settle. Screws Alcatraz, of course, so it's a dubious move. Alcatraz would be reachable by nuke from the south though.

EDIT: You could have a knight/mace pair ready for the settler in time, but you risk not covering Sheep south by moving the galley into GC. Delhi has musket(city garrison :lol:

), lb, pike, galley, 2 cats. If nothing else comes from BOmbay in 2t, what would be the escort? Speaking of which, what would G attack us with, if we DoWed, since his lb and musket are city garrison promoted? The CI pike + cats?

Erkon · Sep 15, 2009

LC - nice play :goodjob:

Let's focus on what is most important: research. Ignore Gandhi and his settlement plans. We've stolen his workers, delayed him and we've done enough damage already. The other AI will expand while we prevent Gandhi to expand. See if we can trade techs with him. That's better than trading with the other AI's.

As I see it, our main challenge is how to expand while researching. Once we've reached Communism, how many more GS do we need? At what point does the GS become too expensive? Can CC provide all of them? If so, we can use the other cities to build settlers and St Pete to build the garrison?

klarius · Sep 15, 2009

Gandhi's settler will be ready in 2 turns and probably settle in 3 turns (escort will be lb or musket).
We wouldn't even make it to your 12f tile before, unless we drive the settler back by war.
Capturing the settler seems pretty unlikely. It's possible to have the knight there, but it's not completely healthy then. Even the lb would be risky, the musket is suicide. There would be the possibility to suicide the mace first, but if that doesn't enough damage, we are in a pretty bad position and have to wait 6 turns for peace and may have to pay.
If we just take 3 workers and don't lose anything Gandhi should talk after 3 turns.
If we could add a military unit killed on top this could reduce to 2 turns.

Edit:
In fact Gandhi's settler will still need 3-4 turns. The settler cost is even more complex than I remembered (only part gets the AI production bonus and the base for Gandhi is higher as he doesn't get our bonus on gorge). A test shows that Gandhi needs 335h for a settler.

SGOTM 10 - Murky Waters

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