SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

We don't need a chop or any improvements in Oasis by my calculation, so maybe that worker can chop after mining.

Strikes me as an excellent solution! Not sure we need to overdo the farming in Bombay for now, though. Don't forget we're about to poprush the living bejusus out of it and it's a slow grower in the first place. All you really need from Bombay is a uni. Try to find the right balance between farming tiles that will get used and cottaging the last Delhi river tile.

I noticed Mutineer's suggestion. By my calculation, we'd need to whip 6 total for this, and would end up with massive overflow. What are we teching after Education? The only thing I heard mentioned was Optics, but we could also go Aest-Lit and save the overflow while teching that. 3 chops will basically complete NE then. Bit of a stretch maybe...

Hmm...this is interesting. I figured with the 3 chops, forge, and w/o OR, the NE will take 10t. Sounds like you've got it in about 1t or so. That's quite a difference. It means not having the market finished, but my guess is that we're going to be able to run 100% research up to Lib anyway, with cash from AIs and the stored cash from 0% research.

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Okay, guys, I checked our our post-Oxford research path. We're going to be teching like crazy at first (~320bpt*1.2=384bpt):

[COLOR="Red"]Edit: possible techs[/COLOR]
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aesthetics  702  2t
literature  468  1.5t
machinery  1638  5t
compass     936  2.5t
calendar    819  2.5t
music      1404  4t
drama       702  2t

max to PP/astro 19.5t at 100% research

We need a GS for PP after machinery and 2 GS for Astro.

Conclusions:
1. Absolutely store huge overflow for NE and get some choppers down there immediately after Oxford.
2. Forget the GM. No time for that.

 

[babybluepants]

Merchant: It's an interesting suggestion, I'm just not sure...

Can see us wanting to beeline Aest-Lit-Music right now, for NE and the freebie GA. Optics is less obvious. Looks to me like we can circumnavigate without it.

The next set of techs - leading up to Chem-Astro-SM - is mostly stuff we can ideally pick up in trade (Calendar, Compass, Construction, Machinery, Engineering, etc.), and then we'll be able to use a whole mass of GS bulbs. We'll also wanna pop the GE somewhere in that era, I think, so that Delhi can actually run some scientists and potentially get another GP out before the game ends.

The variable is AI tech pace, ofc. Seems to be rather slow, but we need to somehow trying to speed that up rather than self-research everything.

How do we estimate the pros and cons accurately from here?

Edit: x-post w/ LC.

 

[babybluepants]

Hmm...this is interesting. I figured with the 3 chops, forge, and w/o OR, the NE will take 10t. Sounds like you've got it in about 1t or so. That's quite a difference. It means not having the market finished, but my guess is that we're going to be able to run 100% research up to Lib anyway, with cash from AIs and the stored cash from 0% research.

Overflow + 3 chops seems to give me 347h in 1t, which would still need 2t building after. I'll still need to re-check all of my math, but it should be pretty close.

 

[LowtherCastle]

I think we should immediately sell Mehmed and Izzy Math for their gold. We want Calendar from someone asap. Too bad we didn't give it to Izzy before, she might have started Calendar already.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Overflow + 3 chops seems to give me 347h in 1t, which would still need 2t building after. I'll still need to re-check all of my math, but it should be pretty close.

Don't forget the forge-overflow bug will rob us of about 4h overflow, iirc. (The overflow gets the forge 25% bonus hacked out of it... )

 

[LowtherCastle]

Merchant: It's an interesting suggestion, I'm just not sure...

Can see us wanting to beeline Aest-Lit-Music right now, for NE and the freebie GA. Optics is less obvious. Looks to me like we can circumnavigate without it.

...

How do we estimate the pros and cons accurately from here?

We can partially research Lib while waiting. We could consider researching PP by hand. Astro we definitely wnat to double-bulb because it doesn't get the 20% research bonus.

Astro also gives us guaranteed trade routes, freeing us to DoW Saladin or anyone else. This is important so we don't lose the silks and dyes trades, once we get ahold of them.

 

[shyuhe]

Does Izzy know Justinian yet? If not, giving her math will not put calendar up for trade even if she gets it since she won't know enough civs who have calendar for her to be willing to trade it.

Double bulb on astro results in overflow (same with scientific method I believe) so that's why I was giving consideration to a GM. Given our complete lack of wealth multipliers, I think it may be better since 6 turns of 100% research with 400bpt roughly equals a GS bulb, and we can run 10+ turns at 100% from a GM. As long as we time our GS production to coincide with half researching astro and SM, the GM should save us some turns. Also, what is drama for? I don't think we'll be needing it any time soon.

I don't think we can count on the AI to research much more for us in this game unfortunately. They're teching VERY slowly. Justinian with the GLH may be able to contribute somewhat but it will depend on his tech choice and we'd likely need him to be friendly to get anything out of him. Also, this will depend on the diplo situation and who becomes second largest in the world, but we may be able to win this game without ever declaring war.

 

[shyuhe]

Some big picture thoughts

Ok, here's our current bulb list:

electricity (2)
physics (2) - free GS probably stored for the VC
SM (1 or 2)
astronomy (1 or 2)
education (1)

and of course +1 engineer or the UN

Currently we've used the following great people:
math (1)
academy (1)
philosophy (1)

For VC purposes, I think we should save the physics GS (or some mongrel GP if we end up using that one for electricity), music GA, and economics GM. If we go to war, we can probably farm a great general as our fourth person. This would also let us ensure that we have dyes + silk if we declare on Mehmed and capitulate him. Izzy should love us if we stay in theo + Buddhism.

I'm ok with interchanging one of these for a mongrel great person if we burn the music artist on a golden age. Now I'm going to assume that we have a size 12 2-fish working 2 fish lol, pigs, cows, one lake, running 7 specialists. With NE + Pacifism + philosophical, we get +300% GPP or 7x3x4=84 GPP So here's what our GPP production scheme looks like right now with estimated turn costs from a 7 specialist 2-fish:

150 GPP - GS for math (done)
300 GPP - GS for academy (done)
450 GPP - GS for philosophy (done)
600 GPP - GS for education (in 10 turns-ish)
(9 turns) 750 GPP - I propose GM in this slot
900 GPP - I think GE from Delhi. It might be this slot or the one below it but I'd have to check my math.
(13 turns) 1050 GPP - GS for astronomy
(15 turns) 1200 GPP - GS for scientific method
(17 turns) 1350 GPP - GS for physics
(18 turns) 1500 GPP - GS for physics
(22 turns) 1800 GPP - GS for electricity
(25 turns) 2100 GPP - GS for electricity

I *think* marble can substitute for one of the later GPP if it grows to size 9 working 3 clams + cows and 5 specialists, as that will be 5x3x3=45 GPP, or roughly half the efficiency of 2-fish. So now let's remove every other 2-fish GPP with a marble GPP instead:

(9 turns from 2-fish) 750 GPP - GM/GS
900 GPP - Delhi GE
(13 turns from 2-fish) 1050 GPP - GS for astronomy
(27 turns from marble) 1200 GPP - GS for scientific method
(17 turns from 2-fish) 1350 GPP - GS for physics
(18 turns from 2-fish) 1500 GPP - GS for physics
(40 turns from marble) 1800 GPP - GS for electricity
(25 turns) 2100 GPP - GS for electricity

Now let's look at Delhi, which has Pyramids + Hanging Gardens and we'll assume it runs 3 out of a max of 4 specialists off the two corns. That gives a GPP rate of (4+3x3)x3=39 GPP. So let's give it the 2100 GPP slot:

(9 turns from 2-fish) 750 GPP - GM/GS
900 GPP - Delhi GE
(13 turns from 2-fish) 1050 GPP - GS for astronomy
(27 turns from marble) 1200 GPP - GS for scientific method
(17 turns from 2-fish) 1350 GPP - GS for physics
(18 turns from 2-fish) 1500 GPP - GS for physics
(40 turns from marble) 1800 GPP - GS for electricity
(54 turns from Delhi) 2100 GPP - GS for electricity

So 2-fish needs 9+13+17+18 = 57 turns, marble needs 27+40=67 turns, and Delhi needs 54 turns from when we have full size cities generating GPP. These are VERY rough calculations since they are not taking into consideration the university whipping we are about to institute, but I think it gives a very good idea of just how many great people we need. Basically once we get the three cities running, we should be able to complete the research tree in about 60 turns (+ however many turns we need for liberalism + radio). I'll try putting these numbers into an excel sheet once we complete Oxford so that we can actually gauge where our GPP production is going to go as compared to our city growth.

edit: Does anybody know if GPP points overflow? Also, it may be worth a golden age once we have the three cities at full capacity but I'd have to check the math. Also, it may actually be difficult to get the necessary +diplo modifiers if we blaze through the tech tree this fast...

 

[babybluepants]

As an aside - does anybody know if GPP points overflow?

Yes, they do. I'll have a look at the numbers later, too.

 

[babybluepants]

Now I'm going to assume that we have a size 12 2-fish working 2 fish (), pigs, cows, one lake, running 7 specialists. With NE + Pacifism + philosophical, we get +300% GPP or 7x3x4=84 GPP

I think it should be 8 specialists at size 13: 2f (cc) + 3x6f + 2x3f = 26f working 5 tiles.
There's also 1 gpp from NE. So (8x3+1)x4 = 100gpp

 

[Mutineer]

About spare WB, near Ivory, It should go to Whales. With speed we will be teching we will use it soon.

 

[shyuhe]

Yeah I forgot the city center and NE. I forgot to count the city centers in Delhi and marble as well, so I'll have to re-do the math there

So it may be better to assume that we'll only get 1 GPP out of marble then. Do we want to try squeezing one out of either sugar (size 8 with 5 specialists) or ivory (size 7 with 5 specialists) then? I'm thinking we can do one each from marble, sugar, ivory, and probably 2 from Delhi (especially if we build the GL).

Also, bbp - can you give me the city sizes that Delhi, 2-fish, marble, ivory, and sugar will be at once they're done with the university whipping? I'm going to throw all of this into an excel sheet and see what I can come up with.

 

[babybluepants]

I'd have to get back to you on that, once I've confirmed my math. (This TS is seriously hurting my head ). I think:

Whipping @ T+14

Delhi: 10 or 11 (depends on Bombay usage of corn)
Two Fish: 5
Marble: 2 (also won't have a LH complete yet)
Sugar: don't know yet. Actually need to figure out what we're doing there.

 

[shyuhe]

Sugar can't run great people until we get calendar (and worker turns) so now that I think about it, I think we should count it out. We can re-consider if it looks like we'll get calendar reasonably soon (which we may have to self-tech).

I'll try doing some calculations tonight with those numbers then. I'm going to assume half-full bins and see what I get.

 

[LowtherCastle]

How can Marble be only pop2 if you 3pop the uni? Hmm... In any case that, Marble shouldn't really go so low. It's a city that grows best starting with pop4 or at least pop3. Maybe we need to rethink something or another just a little bit. Maybe we need to chop a forest in Marble instead of somewhere else?

 

[shyuhe]

@bbp - do you know what size ivory will be as well? I don't remember if it's getting whipped or not.

 

[babybluepants]

Guys, I'm proposing to whip everything in sight. It's vicious.

Ivory gets whipped twice for 4 total as per LC's suggestion. It would most likely be size 3, not sure right now.

Marble can be fixed if we want higher pop in the end (didn't really care about that, since I figured this is our one chance to get some whip hammers). I had: 2pop library > 3pop Uni. A chop would obviously save 1pop - it's an option. We could do it ahead of the Bombay FP farm, or even at the expense of canceling the current Rice farm? I could also take down Rice 1 more pop to save the library whip altogether. Also, Marble should re-grow one more by the end of all this, so could potentially be pop 4 in T+14 with a chop. I'll check again and post several clear options for this.

I need to re-check all my math later today regardless, and get it all a bit tighter. We can make adjustments...

 

[shyuhe]

No hurry on playing so take your time Once we get over the hump of Oxford, I think the rest of the game will just be spent on diplo management (and conquering that fur) so it should be easier from a MM standpoint.

 

[Mutineer]

I want to put case for Next 2 fish producing GM.

Currently we running effective 40% research slider. That mean that 60% of our capital commerce are waster producing gold with no bonuses.

After Oxford we will have (50% lib +Uni 50% academy 100% Oxford) 200% bonuses to research in capital and 0 bonuses for gold.

IN additional 5 of our other cities will have 50% bonus to research and 0 bonus to gold.

Not having 100% research all the time become criminal.

We can get from GM More gold then beakers from direct GS bulb, IN addition it in average we will have 150% bonus to gold to beakers conversion.

So, 1 GM = ~ 2.5 GS in term of GS to beakers conversion, so long as we spend all this gold before researching final technology.

In short, every GM will save as 1-1.5 GP from total we need to produce and at the same time speed up our research.

About research order.

After education I can agree with Aesthetic-literature-Calendar?-Music??- Printing Press!! It will improve our capital greatly, because we will have a few villages at that time and it give AI chance to research some technologies for as to trade.

We do not need to harry for anything else yet.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Great Merchant

For starters, I now agree with the GM next. For one reason: It will allow some cities to build missionaries instead of gold for 100% research.

Note: Building gold in cities without research modifiers is an excellent alternative/supplement to the gold from a GM.

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This problem is very complicated. I had a similar discussion with jesusin in one SG. He thought in terms of BEAKERS. I prefer to think in terms of TURNS.

We have about 50-55K beakers of techs to research. If we had unlimited GPs, we just bulb them. If we had unlimited beaker production in our economy, we just research each tech in 1t. But we don't and that's why this is complicated. We have a limited number of GPs and the max beaker production of our economy is limited. Somehow we have to optimize that and I think the key is to think of turns saved.

Spoiler :

When our economy produces 1250bpt, GS saves 2 turns. When it produces 125bpt, the GS saves 20 turns.

The next GM will give us about 10K beakers of research (I think), but it will take about 12-18 turns (I think) to use all that gold, because our max economy is limited.

Our economy is set up for Delhi to produce beakers with Oxford and the rest comes mostly from specialist-turns (in Two Fish, Marble, and Rice). We have a small, weak economy, especially at low population. It would take many, many turns to research all the techs we need by hand, even at 100% research. Poprushing costs us beakers, because it costs us specialist-turns. The poprushing in other cities costs us 1) build gold or 2) build missionaries/units.

==> So our optimization problem is to minimize the time to get Oxford AND maximize our population.

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1. Two Fish grows fast as hell starting at pop3, so let's assume poprushing does minimal damage.
2. Rice can grow reasonably fast starting at pop3.
3. Marble can grow reasonably fast starting at pop3 plus lh.

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Prioritized solution:
1. Do not poprush Two Fish, Rice, and Marble below pop3.
2. Finish the Marble lh asap after the poprushing cycle.
3. Finish the current Rice farm.

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Thoughts on Marble:
1. The chop can fit in any time.
2. Any way to get Confucianism into Marble asap?