SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

[bcool]

1st draft of PPP goes out to turn 108

Proposed Tech Path
Aesthetics, Literature

setting up GL build in Moscow (see previous post)

Builds & workers
Siberia
Granary until just under 30 hammers invested
Then Temple of Artemis (for failure gold)
Then 2 pop whip Granary

Rice worker moves 1 NE, then go to scrub deer near silver mine
Deer worker moves 1 S, roads and stops / goes 1S of Siberia scrubs and stops / goes to help scrub deer near silver mine
Then 1st worker starts deer camp
2nd worker moves W to road city ruin (then plans to road to deer to W of Siberia (maybe heading off to corn/fish/deer city site)

Pigs
workboat for 1 more turn
then whip workboat (so that we net the fish the same time it grows to 2 pop)
then granary
2 pop whip granary

nearby worker scrubs rice
joined by at least 1 stolen worker which scrubs and farms rice
then 1 helps with GP Farm sugar plantation
other scrubs plains hill?

Fish
Builds Galley
starts worker
then 2 pop whips the worker
starts Lighthouse?

whipped worker, roads to 2nd ivory

Moscow
finishes chariot
Barracks
Axe 1 turn
Settler (silk forest chopped into it)
finish Axe
Axe
Axe

Workers scrub and mine copper
1 goes to help with GP Farm site (1 turn scrub on the way)
2 chop silk forest
1 to 2S of Fish to road
1 starts plantation of silk, chops next turn to sync with settler build in Moscow
Fish worker comes back to help finish silk plantation
1 worker roads other silk
1 worker cleans Grass hill 2S of Fish for 1 turn (will return to help with 2nd silk plantation)

GP Farm site
1 worker scrubs city location site
shifts over to scrub sugar as 2nd worker from Moscow comes to help
then they both build a plantation for sugar (maybe some help from Pigs workers)
then 1 starts road to bananas
others scrub other sugar

Random captured worker that might be trapped by DeG's borders (scrubs tiles in between Paris/Rheims)

AI Interactions / Troop movements

Declare on De Gaulle and capture 2 workers
1 chariot captures worker near rheims then pillages cottage, leave this chariot near the eastern borders of Rheims to look for another 2 worker steal.
other chariot moves W to stay between Rheims and Paris with captured worker and warrior
--Chariot between Rheims and Paris to pillage new roads and protect captured worker.
--warrior goes to scout???

Next turn cease fire with De Gaulle
??? Delay cease fire to get 2nd captured worker out??? --I'm thinking no but wanted others opinions

Also if we are his target for war, would this possibly screw with the cease fire algorithm? (I assume no)
(The only thing would be if he does declare on us then the refuse to talk period is doubled if I understand LC correctly)

For the next worker stealing attempt... I assume the Refuse to Talk period is increased?? Or can we steal 2 workers and cease fire the next turn in perpetuity.

Peace with Churchill this turn (-- won't it just shift the missionary to the Grass Hill to the SW and aid our scouting?)

Trade for 30g from Rosey for Phood?
Look for lucrative gold trades during this turn set

Peace with Stalin? I assume no... risks would be he might bribe others into war with us if he meets anyone?

Send Chariots down towards Pigs / Rheims
Send Axe down towards Pigs / Rheims

Try for open borders with Mao???

Civics and Religion
Switch to Confu??? (I assume no)
No planned changes

Espionage
Leave espionage on Gandhi?
or split with De Gaulle (maybe we can eventually steal Nationalism?)
Or do you think stealing Constitution from Rosey is more likely given the necessary time to develop the :ep:?

 

[babybluepants]

@Mitchum, did you do any recent scouting for 1NW of the western worker?

I'd steal both right now, and try to get them back out before ceasefire.

Peace with Churchill: make sure you test every combination of techs, starting with cheapest and working your way up. I'd get the missionary through first, then sign. We won't be able to make it through Mao to scout anyway.

One important mid-term question: do we want Fish to beat Moscow with a 100% GS? Not sure when we'd be completing TGL, but we'd probably need to start on the gpp very soon.

 

[mdy]

Do we want the large numbers of scientists the Great Library will give us? Unless we need to bulb some tech like education particularly early a merchant will be worth far more beakers to us than a scientist in the long run.

Winning a space race is about maximising beakers, and to maximise our beaker output we need to grab as much land as we can as quick as possible. Going for the Great Library can only delay this.

Going for maces next would also mean there would be no need to build less efficient macemen.

 

[Mitchum]

@Mitchum, did you do any recent scouting for 1NW of the western worker?

No. The warrior was swinging around from the SW. I marked on the map the last time I saw each of De Gaulle's units (archers and workers only). IIRC, the archers appeared to be headed to the SW with a pair headed north to the capital. Don't forget about the archer NE of Pigs.

 

[Mitchum]

When Churchill founded Hastings, his archer had been fortified on that spot for my entire turnset, preventing our missionary from getting by. I've never seen an AI unit stake out territory like that...

 

[Mitchum]

Great People

In general, I'd be inclined to settle any near-term great people that we get since we're in this game all the way to space. The exception would be if we need to use a GS to bulb a tech if needed in order to win the race to Liberalism. I'd also keep a GE if/when we get one to found Mining Inc, which could easily be a make-or-break opportunity in this game.

Regarding trade missions, aren't they nerfed somewhat in this game because a) we will likely only have open borders with 1 or 2 AI at most, and even that won't last long once we hit our fill stride in conquest mode and everyone has been ice balled and b) the trade missions will not be over seas and will be greatly reduced in value. I can see possibly running 1 or 2 trade missions early on, but transporting a GM safely all the way to Gandhi is going to be challenging.

Wonders

I typically go for the GLib in every game I play. I'm not sure of the value of it in this game. I think better would be to use our hammers to build an army and capture it, similar to our plans on acquiring MoM and the 'Mids.

If we do want to invest hammers in wonders, two wonders that I think would add a lot of value in this game include the Hanging Gardens and Hagia Sophia. Both provide GE gpp and we really need a GE in this game. The Hagia Sophia will allow us to do the same work with ~ 2/3 the number of workers. That will be huge on this map I think.

REX

I think we should consider settling at least 2 off-continent cities in the next turnset or three. There appears to be good land to the SE. I agree that building axes for De Gaulle in the near term is good, but can we sneak in another settler or two somewhere?

Worker Steal

Ideally, we'd be able to get both workers to the east of Rheims, but it may be too dangerous to try. If we lose a battle (and possibly lose our stolen worker), the time for us to get a Cease Fire (I was able to get CS, not DoP in the test save) goes up greatly. Then we'd have to deal with the archer near Pigs. Sure, we'll have two chariots on the scene, but why risk it?

If you feel safe about getting the worker east, go for it. If there is risk involved, I agree with the plan of keeping the worker between Mao and De Gaulle so that he can get a head start on scrubbing. Maybe we could even scrub our preferred settling spots so that De Gaulle or Mao settle them for us...

Espionage

I was thinking about splitting our EPP between Gandhi and another AI as well. We should keep just enough EPP on Gandhi to see his research and then put the rest on the AI we think we can steal our first tech from. Not sure who that is though.

Should we build a spy to scout out the enemy before we attack?

Research

Maybe we should put beakers at 0% science into a tech for the next two turns until we see what Gandhi is going to research next. Then, we could pick our path. I'm inclined to skip the Aesthetics -> Literature for now. Axes and cats should be fine for our war effort until the AI learn Feudalism and start spamming long bows. That means we could research/trade for Construction, MC and Machinery. It would be nice to pick up IW in the short term as well.

 

[bcool]

@mdy
I think we will want the great scientists that the Great Library will likely give us. I think there are several techs on the path to Communism that we can bulb with scientists (Education, Printing Press, Scientific Method, Chemistry)

I'm not necessarily suggesting that we will bulb all the great people. I was just using those numbers to put a value on the Great Library. But I think the earlier we can get State Property the better. Especially if we are planning to expand as aggressively as everyone wants.

I agree that under the right circumstances Great Merchants are better, but it is going to be quite some time before we are going to be running caste system and have a city in which we can run a decent number of merchants.

A significantly earlier State Property with the bulbs might in the long run save us more gold than the extra gold the Great Merchants could make even if the best situation is possible (getting them to an off continent AI with the temple of Artemis)

In the short run we can make a decent amount of gold from small tech trades. And perhaps fund a decent amount of our research with conquest.

@bbp
Great scientist in Fish?
I don't think we must have a great scientist as our next great person (although the one after that might be too late for education). The Great Prophet isn't great and there are good odds we will get one if we let Moscow pop the next great person. Settling the Prophet in our future Wall Street city wouldn't be too bad. Or settling it in our future Iron Works city (Probably Moscow) isn't too bad either. Or even building the Confu holy building now that Mao has picked up Confu.

@Mitchum re: wonders

I have to assume Gandhi or maybe Rosey will build the GL, and by the time we can capture it from them it will be almost obsolete. I think the only way we are going to benefit from the GL is if we build it ourselves.
I don't think we are going to be able to easily trade for aesthetics either, since Gandhi likely won't trade it while he tries to build the GL or Parthenon.
The GL is one of the best wonders in terms of hammers invested for benefit especially since we have Marble and will lack a decent GP Farm for a good time to come.

I agree that the Hanging Gardens and the Hagia Sophia would be nice in this game. The Hagia Sophia especially since we have Marble at the moment. Unfortunately a +50% in worker efficiency isn't quite what it seems though. The worker still lose the same number of turns while moving. And the Standard speed rounding doesn't help us as much as other speed. Roads still take 2 turns. Farms go from 5 to 4 turns, Mines from 4 to 3.

I'm not sure teching Christianity just for the Hagia Sophia is worth it. Maybe Gandhi would trade it but that again seems unlikely.

Worker stealing
A spy sure would make it a lot easier to steal workers safely. I'm worried that De Gaulle might already have a stack coming our way and could attack our warrior/chariot North of Rheims. We can get the cease fire the next turn (at least in the test game), so that would minimize the risk but strand the worker.

Off continent settler
Instead of whipping a worker in Fish I could whip a settler. But any offshore city would likely need a worker as well... We are stretching our workers as it is. Maybe if I can get the 2nd worker away from De Gaulle...

 

[bcool]

Conquest...
After Literature we could research or trade for Construction if we are lucky and take Rheims with a catapult or 2 and the axes we have. Then maybe trade for Metal Casting and tech Machinery and put the conquest mode into high gear.

We can't expand super duper fast and still get a decent research rate can we? The demands of clearing the fallout make extra cities significantly more expensive (they take longer to make a profit). We have to balance research/expansion/conquest a little bit. The great library is a very nice researching machine when you consider the value of those earlier .

 

[mdy]

Given the difficulties of trading and the AI's slow tech pace it is extremely unlikely that we will be able to trade for construction/metal casting on a useful timescale.

If we run specialists in other cities to generate GS in would significantly reduce the value of the Great Library due to the smaller number of additional GP's it would generate.

In the short term going to war will slow down the economy, however the extra land we capture should rapidly make up for it.

 

[bcool]

Gandhi has Bureacracy and Rosey has Representation, both of those will speed up their research a bit. I think it is likely we will be able to trade for metal casting or construction (probably not both). It will take us ~8 turns for aesthetics and literature.
It only took Gandhi 7 or 8 turns to research Theology. That means he has 80-100 research per turn--not too bad.

I understand going to war will slow down the economy. I'm not suggesting we don't go to war, I'm suggesting in the long run delaying some military build up will pay for itself and then some if we go for the Great Library.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Excellent discussion, guys.

Macro

I'm still stuck on our tech path. We have 20,262 to Communism via Liberalism. Aesthetics+Literature adds 780. We're already at 3% inflation, increasing ~1%/3t. Small empire, no problem, big empire, disaster. Basically, REX/conquest/inflation/maintenance is a ticking time bomb...we want to get to SP before it explodes.

GS bulbs are the best way to speed up our tech path. Tech trades would be excellent, if possible, but here they're doubtful. I don't know if Gandhi would trade monopoly MC while he's building a forge, but it's conceivable. If so, that'd be huge.

GM trade missions are roughly equal to a GS bulb after SoA is built. After we build Oxford and beyond, they're better than GS bulbs for long-term teching. Problem with GMs is we need markets or CS, and as bcool said, I don't think we want CS for some time to come. We need to poprush granaries, forges, and chs, at the very least.

I think GS bulbs are the way to go. At least 2-3, if not 4. I have no idea if that's realistic. Simple truth: Getting Communism fast is hugely overpowered. Look what MW did with it in SG10. XTeam played a good game and we beat them by 40t. I think we want Communism almost asap, balanced with solid REX and some war economy. I think any warring now should mostly facilitate Communism+REX. We don't want to overstretch it.

But I'm not sure all this means GLib. I like GLib in Moscow for one reason--it's food poor. What I'm pretty sure it does mean is the Parthenon. That's as far as I've gotten on the macro picture and I'm stuck again. What does this mean for bcool's turnset? I still don't know what our tech path should be. So I looked at it from the micro picture.

----------------

Micro

Two overseas cities would boost our trade route income from 8g/4cities currently to 24g/6cities! That's huge, really. The only other high priorities that I see right now are: 1) worker stealing; 2) GP Farm; 3) capturing Gems/Stone; and 4) Silver (lower priority). #1, #2, (and #3?) are already in the works. That leaves the 2 overseas cties.

Here's my workout (peddle to the metal). I haven't done the MM workout in Moscow for this. This is just a concept plan to see how soon we could settle the two cities. This also assumes we'd want to settle the two sites to the SE:

Spoiler :

T100 Switch Fish build to lh(?); wkr on Pigs rice moves to ivory
T101 2poprush galley; road ivory
T103 wkr on ivory moves 1E to hill
T104 road hill
T106 wkr moves 1N to easternmost bananas
T108 wkr roads bananas; arriving worker boards galley at bananas-1SE
T109 2nd wkr boards galley; galley moves 2SE; 1st wkr lands between fish and clams
T110 1 wkr lands on COpperCorn island; settler1 done in Moscow
T112 settler2 done in MOscow
T113 settler1 boards galley from bananas-1SW
T114 settler1 lands between fish and clams
T115 Fish+CLams settled; settler2 boards galley from bananas-1SW
T116 settler2 lands on COpperCOrn
T118 COpperCOrn settled

The point of this concept plan is to frame our discussion a bit. We don't have to hurry the two cities this much, but I think it makes sense to do so. We can discuss it. But if we decide to focus on that priority, then bcool, you have something to work your MM around and maybe that will tell us what to tech next. In other words, if we can't start building GLib this turnset anyway, then Literature isn't needed yet. Or vice versa.

 

[bcool]

Most of my builds and worker actions are compatible with LC's aggressive plan to settle the islands.
With the exception that the Great Library will be delayed or postponed. I think the Great Library is better than the Parthenon given that we are likely to spend a long long time in slavery, and will have limited gpp production in other cities for quite some time. And the Great Artist gp points from the Parthenon are just annoying.

One question, I'm assuming we want to settle the original GP Farm site AND the islands?

I will try out a test game with LC's aggressive settling plan tomorrow morning.

Tech Path
Which tech is more likely for Gandhi to trade? Metal Casting or Aesthetics? I've almost never seen a non-friendly AI willing to trade Aesthetics, but I definitely have seen Metal Casting on the trade block more often. I guess it depends on what Gandhi decides to tech.

I see the advantages of Metal Casting first... Running a Great Engineer, getting the production bonus from a forge, the potential for building the Colossus, getting maces earlier...

But Aesthetics and Literature and the GL and NE is approximately 2 Great People 60 turns earlier than we would see them otherwise.

 

[babybluepants]

Good discussion, guys. Busy week for me, sorry I haven't been as active.

I think this is a fairly regular game:
1) Expand and tech to Education for Oxford asap. This can include limited warfare.
2) Lib something useful (Comm, Bio...)
3) Massive expansion happens in Renaissance, with Communism so we can survive it without crashing the research rate.

I'd want 3-4 GS for Philo, Educ, and something on the Communism path (PP, SM I guess). The rest should be a mix for a few golden ages at the end. I've done mass-settling before, but it's not as great without Pyramids.

We should settle the remaining good spots (GP, corn/fish and silver), as well as anything good off-continent, as soon as we have the worker turns available. Growing Moscow on barracks/axes is ok. we might need some C1 axes to defend Pigs if it comes to that in the short term. To make inroads against DG, we'd need a crapload of axes, and it's just not efficient. I'm for teching Construction towards this, rather than maces, but I think we're still some time from the required production capacity.

Edit: Definite yes on Lit and TGL. I'd typically go for Music here, too. The free Artist is good for later GA. Guessing we won't do that, though.

 

[mdy]

We already have 2 cities that will be capable of running scientists in the near future, and will shortly settle a third. Getting 3-4 reasonably early scientists and fighting an early war with maces aren't mutually exclusive. This also has the advantage that we would have zero risk of getting a prophet instead of a scientist.

Given the state of our relations with the AI I don't think we can count on either MC or construction being available for trade on a useful timescale.

I agree that we should try to found 2 cities on the islands as soon as is reasonably possible.

 

[bcool]

Updated the test game

I'm still on the fence with Metal Casting first or Aesthetics/Literature. I'd like to play out test games with both paths, but I'm not sure if we have tons of time to do this.

Metal Casting
Advantages
-Forge in Moscow and maybe Fish ~10 turns earlier
--happiness (probably not a factor)
--production bonuses -nice
--ability to run a great engineer -critical?
---if we don't try for the great engineer early and often we might not get one for Mining Corp.
-Brings us closer to Macemen
--Faster and cheaper? conquest since we likely won't lose many macemen taking Rheims at least
-Ability to build Colossus (in Fish I would assume)
--Colussus will last maybe until turn 190 (90 turns from now) it will take us 15-20 turns to settle islands and would take us about the same amount of time to build the Colossus
--Initial payback of Colussus wouldn't be great but over 70 turns... hard to say without testing
---We are working maybe 5 ocean tiles in the short term that's +5 commerce for ~10 turns, Island cities and fish would quickly work more maybe an average of +15 commerce for next 60 turns
----rough guess maybe 950 commerce from the colossus for a cost of 250 Hammers (not including copper discount)
----Also doesn't count the great merchant ...
-----Conclusion Colossus is better than I thought...
-Disadvantages of Metal Casting first...
-- Unhealthiness of forge probably a factor? Maybe lose 10 food in Moscow/Fish
-- Risk losing GL to Gandhi (depending on his tech path)
-- No chance to trade for Metal Casting (unlikely as it is)
-- Delays GL and NE by 10 turns each maybe losing out on 160 and 105 (60*1.75)
--- Metal Casting isn't as good to trade as Aesthetics/Literature??? Easier to get fair price in gold/techs for Aesthetics/Literature and doesn't get the AI closer to military techs of their own.

Advantages of Aesthetics/Literature
--opposite of disadvantages of Metal Casting First
---GL and NE maybe 10 turns earlier producing 160 and 105 that we wouldn't otherwise produce
---Little to no risk of losing the race to the GL
---Better trade bait
Disadvantages of Aesthetics/Literature
--No Early forges
---no production and happiness benefits
---delays Colossus by 10 turns (risks losing that race) only would lose maybe 50 commerce and 20
---delays Maceman
---delays ability to generate great engineer

 

[bcool]

Ok, found an error in my test game (shifted corn/copper island down one)


Played Test game out to (119) 100 AD (fixed map error mid play)
I decided to go with Metal Casting First then Aesthetics/Literature (5 turns from Machinery)
by turn 119 (not necessarily going this far in my turn set)

I built the Great Library in Moscow the turn before and I settled the GP Farm, the clam/fish island and next turn I would be able to settle corn/copper. (I messed up the micromanaging in Moscow maybe -- tough to produce those 2 settlers and a forge in time I ended up chopping two forests to get those settlers out and still was a turn or 2 behind schedule.)

Building the Colossus in Fish city (ended up needing to whip a worker in Fish to get Moscow producing those settlers fast enough) So Colossus is a bit delayed perhaps.

I found there to be limited opportunities to run scientists in other cities (We are whipping off excess population so while we might run scientists a few turns, but they are whipped away before building up significant

In the turns after this, we will be whipping out forges and courthouses, so there still might be limited opportunities in the near future.

Left chariot North of Rheims to pillage roads and make it possible to maybe get 2 workers in the future. Near turn 119 saw 1 worker and took it out and then got lucky and took out 2 archers in Rheims with 2 chariots and 2 axe.

 

[bcool]

Fixed map mistake with test save

 

[bcool]

I went literature/aesthetics first and was only able to get the GL 2 turns earlier and that was with a whip in Moscow to build the 2nd settler on time.

I'm just starting the Colossus in Fish and ended up with a barracks in Fish as well

Notably I stole 2 more workers in this test game in two separate wars. That archer De Gaulle has in our lands is a threat that we will likely have to kill with 75% odds unless we are careful. So far with the 2 chariots we can protect the workers well enough. I ended up killing it with a chariot in the test game because I was careless.
I also brought back the workboats a bit earlier and planned a bit better with another workboat build by Pigs. Works well with a lighthouse build instead of a library.

I also was able to trade for more gold in this test save, so my research is doing significantly better. Gandhi traded me Monotheism and I was able to sell that profitably.

 

[bcool]

It is hard to compare my tests since I ended up doing a few things differently but...

-The Colossus is pretty nice wonder and with Metal Casting first we make more progress on that wonder
-We get earlier forges in Moscow and a bit earlier in Fish (which is good and bad but more good than bad)

-might be harder to get nice gold trades however...

Also if we are declared on by De Gaulle, Metal Casting gives us a bit more flexibility/protection.

Edit: I would like to play tomorrow. So if people agree that Metal Casting first might be the way to go, then I will post a detailed plan either tonight or tomorrow morning with a plan to play in about 24 hours from now.

 

[babybluepants]

I'm finally playing around with it a bit tonight. Try to post a 100 AD comparison later.

I'm for Aest-Lit, as stated earlier. Don't see a need for MC right now. The only reason to build a forge anywhere anytime soon is GE odds. I'll admit I'm not as convinced as the rest of you that we'll go Corporate here, but I also think it's possible to plan for a later GE via IW should we really need one. It's already too late for anything approaching 100% odds, unless we're willing to invest in multiple GE wonders somehow (don't see the production capacity for that). Edit: obviously also Colossus... I rarely if ever build that. I can appreciate your argument above, though.